Don't be too sensitive to talking about war like everybody is a saint. The Americans start a war every few years, does anyone have a problem? If you have a problem, what have you done about it? Do you still live and work in the U.S.? If you do, your tax dollars are used in the wars. War will cause the deaths of innocent people. That is unfortunate. But if the war can prevent the collapse of a China and military conflicts with other coutnries, that will save millions of lives. Protecting the Chinese people's lives and well beings are true humanity. A lot of hypocrites like to see the Chinese government collapse and the country falls into civil wars just to protect some human rights of some political dissidents or TI supporters. By that time, they can donate some money and drop some food to the hungery Chinese to show their humanity and superiosity. I am not saying China should start a war immediately. I am saying China should not let the Taiwan time bomb sitting there and other people can detonate it whenever they need to. China should control its own fate and remove the time bomb when the time is right for China.
I am all talking, no actions. I hate to join any army because I am a selfish person. On one hand, I support China to use force if necessary. On the other hand, I don't want to see any tension between China and the U.S. because that will my life in Houston miserable.
Threats of war is not going to stop Taiwan from declaring independence. The point is what is the best way to entice Taiwan back with minimal amount of cost. China has so many cards in her deck, economical (10s of billions of surplus by Taiwan, one million of Taiwanese working in China, etc.) and political, etc. It is neither necessary nor is it intelligent for China to use the military option.
i haven't read this thread....so i apologize if anyone else said this..but everytime i see this thread title i hear christina aguilera singing, "what taiwan wants...what taiwan needs..." freaky, man. freaky.
Money is thicker than blood. It's so true. If my son earns 1 million a year and also mentally superior than me, there's no way he listens to me. But all I want is for him to still admit to be my son. I don't want to control him, he can go his own ways, just be my son and don't hate me for the rest of his life. Yeah and don't twist its 400 years of history with me and thank the Japanese in the end. I know on the government level, there's no such thing as "blood". But it's sad. Chinese need to lighten up, they got scewed over and over because they don't unite, and they still don't learn their lessons.
see a while ago someone posted that it reminded them of the Spice Girls, you know "tell me what i want.. what i really really want.." i was gonna post it rather reminds me of the christina aguilera song. serioulsy ever time i see the name it pops into my head. but then i didn't post that since this thread was really serious. but yo! i'm glad i'm not the only one.
LOL Everytime I see someone praises Taiwan's democracy, I hear William Hung singing "She bangs, she bangs..."
As this thread becomes once again thoughtfull, I'll take my stab. No, we don't need to do either. Lil or anybody else, can talk all they want. I will still respect them as a person, but just make sure they won't succeed. As far as I know, many taiwanese are not objectionable to reunification ultimately when condition ripes. At least, close to 60% are wait-and-see type. Some are more extreme, but they are hardly mainstram. We don't need to convert those or kill them all for taiwan to stay in status quo. We just need to make sure they don't achieve their ultimate goal, which is what Beijing is doing right now. No. There are Chinese all over the world, singapore Chinese, American Chinese. While it's nice if they intend to stay Chinese, I won't claim any rights over any of their land or sovereignty. So the "One Chinese" principle is really hollow. However, it is important for taiwan to stay Chinese to achieve the reunification without a war. This is where we fundamentally disagree. No, a hostile Taiwan is far more ditrimental to China than a hostile Korea, or Sri Lanka. Take a look at the map of Asia again. If Chinese authority were smart enough and forward looking enough during the Qing-Japan war, I bet they would never cede Taiwan. If China were to cede some land today, I bet they would rather give up somewhere in Manchue or Mongolia than Taiwan. Look, Taiwan sits right across the most prosperous region in China in a short distance. It controls one of the most important business passage that is Taiwan streit. It outlooks the real pacific, rather than the China Sea. To the South, it forms a natual envelop towards the South China sea. To the north, the dotted islands almost reaches Japan. It covers a nice radiant of Chinese seaside economy, whose prosperity owes in large part to its location, easy access to ports, capital, etc. Age of ocean economies, though not as imptortant as in 20th century, is still here to stay. The rush of gaining control of the ocean resources will only get more intense in the future. I would hate to think my children, children's children will have to deal with a hostile Taiwan that controls their lifeline of oil from mideast, minery from Australia, cargos from U.S., and Shoutheast Asia, that can be a launch pad of some major power toward China. In fact, if you put a missile or submarine base of some major power in Taiwan, boom, half of China is dead (in a strategic sense). Well, we all love peace, but who's to predict the future? On the other side, most of that is also true for Taiwan. Being in the shadow of the mainland, TW can not happily independant without an alliance with a major power. And don't say how about singapore and many small Asian countries. China has never claimed anything of any Southeast Asia countries, they are not TW, yet they still have US millitary bases till now. A natual alliance for TW is of course China, or mainland, which historitally is linked to TW, and still retains claims of sovereignty of sorts over it. Some extremists want to erase the history, and get a divorce without any retribution. I doubt China will ever "let the TW go". No sane leadership in Beijing will ever give up Taiwan. Reunification is not "if", it's "how" and "when".
You are right here. But it is wise for China to reserve the military option. War threat is like Nuclear weapons, you won't actually use them because they are so devastating. But it helps keep the players honest, it helps to rule out the hot-headed-ness, or reckless impulsive actions. War thread does play a part in preventing TW to declare independence on a hot-head, which I'm pretty sure Mr. Chen SB would have already done were there none of it.
I know. William Hung is a lovely young man. But the way the TI supporters praises their democracy is as awkward as William's singing.
- The only real coastal area "blocked" by Taiwan is Fujian. - The first liquid natural gas terminal constructed in China, which was supposed to be receiving shipments from Australia, is located in Guangdong. - Traditionally, the wealthiest area of China wasn't the Pearl River Delta, but instead the Yangtze delta in Jiangsu/Shanghai area. I see no reason why that wouldn't continue. - Taiwan is a tiny island of 22 million people. If/when Taiwan becomes hostile to the mainland, China will have every capability (and right) to bomb it back into the stone age. Taking "pre-emptive" action against Taiwan makes zero sense. Malaysia and Indonesia are a far more dangerous threat to Chinese access to Mideast Oil; do you advocate we take them out of the equation as soon as possible? Same holds for Korea/Japan in terms of access to US shipping lanes. Imagine that it's already the year 2054, a China with an economy that's double the size of the United States, many times larger than Japan, and probably 10 times larger than Taiwan. A China that has active Mars/Moon colony programs. You're telling me that we need to be concerned, from a strategic/military point of view, of Taiwan? The US went through this with the Cuban missile crisis (makes sense considering the military scenario at the time), and yet few people today seem concerned that Cuba is a bastion of anti-American sentiment. - William Hung's a great guy. He reportedly has sung in Chinese in some of his performances in honor to the Chinese people... so, no mocking of the Hung!
If China allows Taiwan to go independent freely, China will break up long before 2054. A picture of China in 2054 is more like this: As Li Denghui wished, China has been broken into 7 pieces. All the people are making Nike shoes, Levi jeans in exchange for American movies, coca-cola, and arms for border conflicts among each other. The Americans and Japanese will constantly drop foods from the air and send medical teams to China to help the Chinese people. The Taiwanese will be translators for both Americans and Japanese. They will teach the Chinese Christianity democracy, human rights, and self-determination. The Chinese are really thankful for their helps.
There is a distinct difference in you own something and you control something, difference in local government and country, in legitemacy of a claim and controllability. etc. In the early decades of the 20th century. China was controlled by various warlords. They are all totally self-controlled. Zhang had northeast which like I said also have dialects can't be understood by the rest, Feng actually controlled a big chunk of Muslims, follow your line of thinking, they are sooo separate country. And what KMT and Dr Sun did was an act of millitary aggression. heech, Taiwan is important no question. Cuba is not dangerous because there's no big powers to back it up any more, where that will never be the case with taiwan. Sure Malaysia etc are more "important", but the point is not who is the most important, the point is whether you should take the attitude "it's not important, we should just let it go and win it over later." This is not a date with your girlfriend where you can win her over relatively easily. However I don't agree just becasue it's important some millitary actions should be made and such. The point is still whether Taiwan is a country and what she wants in the long term.
heech: Your post makes some sense only if you already assume Taiwan is already a rightfull, full-fledge independant country and China has absolutely no business over anything in Taiwan, which is not the case. Now let's get to the point. - The only real coastal area "blocked" by Taiwan is Fujian. - The first liquid natural gas terminal constructed in China, which was supposed to be receiving shipments from Australia, is located in Guangdong. That's kind of pre-WWII coverage, isn't it. By current maritime standards, TW ceitainly cover a lot more than Fujian. - Traditionally, the wealthiest area of China wasn't the Pearl River Delta, but instead the Yangtze delta in Jiangsu/Shanghai area. I see no reason why that wouldn't continue. Don't know why that's relevent. TW is about the same distance to both delta. I was making case for the impoartance of unblocked access to ocean front and ocean resources. - Taiwan is a tiny island of 22 million people. If/when Taiwan becomes hostile to the mainland, China will have every capability (and right) to bomb it back into the stone age. Taking "pre-emptive" action against Taiwan makes zero sense. I don't know what "pre-emptive action" you are talking about? You mean China retaining her rights over Taiwan, blocking its independance as "pre-emptive" action? Other than that, I don't see China doing anything other than preserving the status quo. And its not as easy as "bomb it back into the stone age" to a "tiny island of 22 million people". For one, Military option is always the unwilling last resort even to a hostile neighbor. Wars have costs. Can we bomb it back to stone age to say, vietnam when it was hostile? For two, I don't think it's ever a sound national security idea to give up your rights now and relie on your capability to bomb it back to stone age when conflict comes. For three, as I said, Taiwan would have to have a major power alliance to counter China. It's not like China can do whatever militarily to Taiwan. Not now, not after you let it go independent. Malaysia and Indonesia are a far more dangerous threat to Chinese access to Mideast Oil; do you advocate we take them out of the equation as soon as possible? Same holds for Korea/Japan in terms of access to US shipping lanes. As I said, China has never lay any claim over these countries. I fail to see the relevance of that to the topic of Taiwan independence. hmm, and U.S. milimary choose these spots for bases for a reason. Imagine that it's already the year 2054, a China with an economy that's double the size of the United States, many times larger than Japan, and probably 10 times larger than Taiwan. A China that has active Mars/Moon colony programs. You're telling me that we need to be concerned, from a strategic/military point of view, of Taiwan? Of course, if China is the all-mighty, most powerful nation in the world. We won't need to worry about much. I'm sure TW will crowl back kissing rears. But that's not the way we should assume when thinking about the national security, isn't it? As powerful as U.S. is to the world today, you tell me that U.S. would agree to give up say pearl harbor, if hypothetically, hawaiians want to go independent? No, they plan on expanding the NATO into the central Asia. While I agree with you that China should focus on bettering itself, but that is not to say China should forfeit its rights over Taiwan. The US went through this with the Cuban missile crisis (makes sense considering the military scenario at the time), and yet few people today seem concerned that Cuba is a bastion of anti-American sentiment. Let's see, US never claims any territory over Cuba. But if there were some missiles on the island, let's see if the US would not be concerned. If Cuba was ever US territory before, and there is anti-American sentiment there, and they have somewhat capable military. Let's see US will ever give it up. and Cuba isn't nearly as important to the US strategically as TW to China in turns of trade rout etc. In fact, your Cuban missile crisis example just underlined not undermined the importance of a island under your belly.
When ther are big powers behind, "win her over" is not easy if possible. If USSR didn't collapse, I doubt W Germany can win over E Germany. Unless you are sure China won't have conflicts with some other powers, an attitude of "win her over later" is stragetically very dangerous.
oh, and does it occur to you, keeping Taiwan at least in status quo, and China being all powerful, these two things might be endogenous to each other?
When ther are big powers behind, "win her over" is not easy if possible. If USSR didn't collapse, I doubt W Germany can win over E Germany. Unless you are sure China won't have conflicts with some other powers, an attitude of "win her over later" is stragetically very dangerous.
I've read Asimov's Foundation trilogy, heech. More than once. An excellent analogy. I wanted to add my admiration for your earlier post. It's probably the best one I've read in the numerous threads there have been regarding this subject. Thanks.
