What should be the goal of the draft? A sure thing or higher risk/reward?

I think you are agreeing with me, but not sure. The intangibles are a big factor on how close you get to your ceiling, and how far you will get beyond current ability. So if you have top notch potential, plus you are the hardest worker, most prepared, toughest competitor, and best leader on the team, you will definitely get better. Current ability is also only a projection because we don't know how these guys will play in a NBA environment. Some peoples floor is below their current ability and some have a higher floor. A guy with a poor supporting cast could bust out of the NBA because of conduct or drug problems. A guy with poor work ethic could eat and party their way out of the NBA. A guy with poor competitive spirit or lack of hustle could never get the playing time to develop and deteriorate.

 

I think we agree. It's probably just semantics. People talk about "floor" to mean what you AT LEAST can get from a guy. A high floor usually means a safe pick.

The main point is that intangibles matter a lot. I am not sure if GMs take them seriously enough.

 

The easiest "hard" skill to improve in NBA is shooting. The most difficult "hard" skill to develop is playmaking.

This is generally accepted in NBA circles, it's practically rote.

While the easiest "soft" skill to improve is effort, while the most difficult "soft" skill to develop is attitude, and even moreso, IQ.

 

Those are all logical points, no doubt we need to consider those unique gifts and frankly at a top 2 pick you need that to be married with the mentality and approach as well. In the end, its never been or never wll be a science in dealing with humanity. There are too many personal traits

We see Jokic, we see lillard, we see Chris Paul. These are all guys written off for some of those physical traits and till dominating. You get cases of both but we've seen the Anthony Randolph and Stromile swift guys come through too. Harden is another example who isn't a stand out athletically, but had an approach and a skillset to improve and compete year in and out and no doubt hes a top pick. And mentioning paul, they took Marvin Williams who was athletic and had all the 'tools' but putting it together he had a role player mentality and wasn't wroth while of a top pick. Thats the Q with mobley, hes got all the tools can he put it together in a way that leads to wins. Is he an Anthony Davis, is he a John ISsac, a boris diaw, so on and so forth.

I believe hes got the tools and hes got his father who is a basketball caoch so he might have the right mentality and approach to keep going to utilize it all
J green too me has the approach too. IF he went to college he would've been the MAN on campus, coaches cater to them more than the pros because the blue chip prospects are the ones giving these big name coaches the millions, let alone they are limited to 20 hours of training with the coaches and don't have to goto class

Imo he chose to to go to the gleague, lke in college, he was paid handsomely, but in this environment hes coached and training by pros who've been there and are not going to be impressed with the bs. Brian Shaw played with kobe, you think hes going to pander to Jalen Green? The otehr guys with him are not 19 year olds enjoying college, they are pros on the cusp of winning and like any of us has a whole lot wisdom when you're 21-25 than at 18,19 and they know they are close so thei'r working and competing everyday with professional mindset

so I'd like to think that can only accelerate his growth

I think we're rich with options at the no 2 and unless the draft class waas totally overvalued or we trade the pick, we're going to come up with an exciting propsect next year

 

There is no such thing as a “sure thing” in a draft. At least one of the 4 between Cade/Green/Suggs/Mobley will be a major disappointment.

 

Or not.