What seed do would you realistically want to have??

Every team has strengths and weaknesses that you can categorize. Think of it like any set of skills... you're strong at some things, not so strong at others.

For example, if we just looked at the Rockets' offense, what are our main strengths? Here's a partial list...

Offensive Strengths

-Transition scoring
-Dwight scoring on the post
-Harden scoring off PnR
-Inside out passes for 3 point shooting
-Ability to draw fouls

Ok, so now take one opponent and lets run a check list of how they match up...

Spurs

-#9 in opponent fast break efficiency
-Tim Duncan (39)
-No lock down perimeter defender ala Iguodala
-20th in the NBA in opponent 3pt%
-#23 in fouls taken per game, #1 in fouls drawn per game

So, in a nutshell...

The Spurs are older and slower than the Clippers or OKC which means we have a better chance of scoring in transition.

The Spurs have Tim Duncan defending the 5. He's a good defender, but Howard has played well against TD historically, and Tim Duncan is a year older than previous years.

The Spurs do NOT have a lock down defender on the perimeter. Some defenders historically have given Harden a very difficult time. Andre Iguodala, Paul George, and a few others have given him some very tough games.

The Spurs do NOT defend the 3 point line exceptionally well (back to speed and age again). Yes, they'll defend it better in the play offs, but age really hurts you here in terms of close outs from the paint to the 3 point line as a series grinds on.

And there's a good chance Harden can get fouls as he's historically torn up the Spurs whenever he's gone against them. The Spurs aren't loaded with shot blockers, and aren't exceptionally good at avoiding fouls against Harden (or even Lin).

Now, you could do the same for Spurs offense vs Rockets Defense, but you get the picture. When I look at it overall, I think the match up is better for the Rockets vs the Spurs than OKC and Clippers, whose strengths play directly into our strengths, or even worse, our weaknesses.

Look at it this way, if your advantage is speed and athleticism, you don't want to be up against someone whose advantage is also speed and athleticism. Especially if they're better at it or more experienced.

 

Thanks for your in depth answer. How on earth did we blow out the pacers then? Don't they have the best defensive efficiency in the league (and on top of that they hold their opponents to lower 3 point shooting percentage than okc)... I know they were in kind of a funk that game, but I mean, do slumps like that really affect a team that much?

Additionally, doesn't this kind of expose a "shooting only in the paint or 3 pointers strategy"? It sounds like any team that defends the 3 point line decently and who also have good shot blockers in the paint would cause a lot of trouble for this team. Wouldn't adding more mid-range shooting into the picture for these types of matchups be the simple answer? (or is that would the Rockets already do?)