Hello fellow CF'ers, lets take a break from this tweeting madness to examine a very important question. What really goes on in NBA front offices today ? How much of this information that we hear through twitter, ESPN, and other outlets is really true ? 50 % , 25 % , Even Less ?? It's hard for me to believe that this frenzy of conversations is occurring in quite the way the media portrays it. NBA executives are in their positions for a reason, now one can argue that there are some bad GM's but overall the average GM is far more knowledgeable and experienced than almost any press member or fan. Not only this , but also they have access to way more information than us. I would be willing to bet that almost every GM has planned out a set of actions depending on the other teams etc... More importantly , every team has a system with which to value players. The systems may differ, and some may be better than others, but overall each team has a good idea of what a player is worth. Now, teams are always going to be in different situations so that will also affect how they value assets. HOWEVER, it is not hard to extrapolate your own valuation system to another team and its situation therefore producing an accurate value of what assets are worth. With this information, it is possible to get quite close to another teams marginal cost, or minimum amount they would accept to make a deal. Basically, I'm saying that teams are probably very aware of what it takes to get a deal done/ if they even have a chance at pulling off a deal. the NBA is 30 competing firms and they probably all have fairly equal information. So all of this rumor and posturing we hear, is irrelevant/ bull****. Maybe, there is a certain incentive to string out negotiations close to the deadline to get as much surplus value as possible, but that also risks YOUR own benefit from completing a deal. I don't think NBA teams waste time proposing ludicrous/ lopsided trades, and the trades that looks that way usually only look that way in hindsight, or were precipitated by a teams situation and subsequent risk taking. Another way of looking at this is that teams know well in advance of the trade deadline what they want to do and usually what their dealing partners want to do. They probably also know their real competitors and unless they accurately asses the situation wont get into a price war. TLDR : Most of what we hear today will probably be false or misinformation , its better for our sanity to wait it out and only examine trades when they are through. NBA executives are smart and have those jobs for a reason.
Honestly, I believe that a portion of what is posted is true (maybe about 35%). But what I'm really wondering is: How many discussions are kept hidden, and never leaked for us to ever know about?????
There are over 100 discussions / conversations at the very least and maybe just maybe one may pan out.
How much do you think the volume of discussions varies from a normal day pre-deadline ? I think the value in waiting till today mainly comes from surplus you can gain from bargaining and from the time you took and gathered /analyzed more information. I think that's why we see more volume of Deals, but in terms of discussion i think maybe there are slightly more but not significantly more.
