What player do YOU want to select in the 2022 NBA Draft?

I can't find the video .... but there was a stretch against Golden State where Wood was covering Curry on several possessions and he held his own making Curry take some tough shots.

Wood can play perimeter defense quite well. It's a matter of effort more than ability IMO. We've seen him do it.

No, he can't defend the paint not protect the rim, he just doesn't have the instincts but as a long wing, I think he could pose teams some problems. Shooting 40+% from 3 while being able to attack the rim on close outs at 6'10" .... I'll take a look at him in that role early in the season before shipping him out (Unless I'm able to consolidate Wood and 17 into a pick 5-8.)

 

I really think that's selling Chet's offensive game short.

You have to realize that was Drew Timme's team. He had earned that role .... In his previous two seasons he led that team to a combined 62-3 record.

Chet wasn't asked to do it much but when given the opportunity to run the offense thru him in the high post, he killed it, generating easy shots for others and himself. He did everything we've watched Sengun do from the post .... except he did it better / more efficient while playing stifling defense on the other end.


Yes, he projects as a defensive ace but he also shot .390 from 3 and .610 from 2 while grabbing some 19% of all rebounds while on the floor. That's with Drew Timme eating up his share too. The highest rebound percentage in the NCAA.


What I see, at worst is a 16/10/5 guy who shoots 40% from distance while providing DPOY defense and at best an offensive hub in the middle that generates easy pickings for Green & Co giving you 25/10/5/5 by playing inside out.

 

This.

So much This, you have stated the argument for Banchero the best yet.

 

What if we got both Chet AND Jabari. Would that work on the floor if we gave up Porter, Wood and two future firsts?

Ex:

P.G. - Daishen Nix or Josh Christopher
S.G - Jalen Green
S.F. - Jabari Smith Jr.
P.F. - Chet Holmgren
..C. - Alperen Sengun

Do y'all see that as a lineup that would work together or would it be a mess?

 

While all of this is very true, his lack of dribbling is the 2nd biggest reason for his shot selection, he just could not create good shots by dribbling.

He really will be a guy who could thrive with a good pg and a system that creates shots for him, something he did not have at Auburn.

 

Jabari - I like Chet's skillset, but he seems really high risk with his very thin and weak frame plus a high center of gravity. With his build, he seems like a bad knee injury just waiting to happen when he inevitably gets rolled up on in the paint. At 7'1, 195#, he makes Zhou Qi and Tayshaun Prince look like Shaq and Two Sandwiches Hamilton. Hopefully he can get to roughly Kevin Durant level bulk, but highly doubt that will happen.

 

I appreciate this about him, but it's also a huge red flag, because if all of this is true why is his dribble game so weak?

Dribbling is something you usually develop at a young age and certainly in your teen years, so either he is very terrible at it or he does not have the confidence in that part of his game, I think it's a bit of both which is a huge red flag.

You just don't see high level kids not have any dribble game unless they are straight up centers and those guys now try to have a dribble game, its one of the most confounding things I have seen.

With that said he can be an all star type even if he does not get an advanced dribble game, but he will need to have that alpha guy he play off.

 

I won't disagree with you on Chet's upside. but its his floor that scares me. last year I was more interested in high risk high reward since we were starting from scratch. we needed a face of the franchise type guy, and I was willing to pass on laser choices until we found one. well I think we have one now in jalen, and my mindset shifted a bit in the past few months. I'd rather take the higher floor, more sure thing, to pair with jalen, instead of swinging for the fence again.

chet can be all you said. but right now he's a streaky 3pt shooter. his season average is elevated due to a 10 game stretch of 50% shooting, couched between mostly sub par 3pt shooting. in the nba he'll have to adjust to a farther 3pt line too. he's slower to attack closeouts (if this were nba2K I think his acceleration grade would be average at best), and although he can grab and go on the fast break, he struggles to dribble in traffic and in half court iso. maybe he refines his shot and tightens up his dribble. maybe he perfects that dirk fadaway that no one can block. he can become a secondary scoring option... but will he? he's not there yet.

Where he is now is an elite finisher around the rim, an elite rim protector both in help/rotations and in drop coverage. and he's a good decision maker / passer from the high post and short roll. that's what makes him a top prospect. however, he struggles with fouling when the offensive player gets into his chest. I'm not sure he's a great one on one defender because of that. nba players will know how to draw fouls. he's also a bit turnover prone when he tries to get too fancy with the dribble or pass. mobley is able to play defense without fouling, and stays within himself when passing/dribbling to avoid turnovers. he's not the rim protector chet is, but chet isn't as switchable on to guards as mobley.

overall his floor scares me more than the other guys because the only thing we know for sure is he will be an elite rim running shot blocking center. how much of a shooter he can be depends on how much more consistent he can become, and being truly an elite defender depends on how much he can stay out of foul trouble and how much he can learn to stay in front of nba guards and play 1-1 against nba bigs. again, I see the vision for his ceiling, but he's gotta get there and he's far from it right now.

 

each guy in the top 4 has their red flags. each one has sort of a critical flaw. none of them are truly tier 1 (superstar potential) prospects. last year we had 3-4 fo those in one draft. sometimes you don't get any. its unfortunate for us this year that's the case. the draft starts with 4 tier 2 (potential all star) prospects who are each flawed.

Jabari's dribble and vertical burst at the rim are issues. I think he can learn a basic dribble package. he's an elite shooter. teams will have to close out hard. he will be able to put the ball on the floor. we've even seen garrison Matthews start attacking off the dribble more since teams close out so hard on him too.

what I like about him is the high floor. give me and elite shooter and plus wing defender from day one and we'll work on the dribble. he won't ever be a play initiator like banchero, but I think he can get him own shot off against anyone with step backs and turnarounds given his height and high release point. now in the nba there will be taller defenders to can contest his shots but we can run him off screens and pick and pops and from there a pump fake and a couple dribbles is all he'll need to do to get a shot off. you draft him knowing he's not a #1 option but he's the safest bet of the top 4.

 

Banchero really does not have red flags, the only red flag is supposedly rim protection and that's just reaching IMO.

Garrison Mathews has always been a guard and has had a average dribble package at worst, I don't see what he has to do with Smith, you can look at his college videos and see Mathews dribble game.

You never answered the real question, if he has this supreme work ethic and drive, why is his dribble game so weak?

So either he does not have the skill level or he is in his own head and scared about a TO, It's probably somewhere in between but IMO it lowers his ceiling a great deal.

I am not saying he does not belong in the top 4 I just don't think him getting an average or advanced dribble game is as easy as some are making it out to be.

Also all the shots you are talking about are low efficiency shots and not shots you are drawing up an offense around, and are easily scouted.

 

Quoted for truth.

Should be stickied, must read.

 

I see this statement over and over on this site. I saw it with Jalen. I've seen it with other players.

Having great work ethic does not equal having a complete game by the age of 18/19.

 

if you don't think banchero has any red flags than he should be a clear cut #1 choice this year. I think his defense is a red flag. not just rim protection. that is a bit of a reach, you're right. because he's really more of a 4/3 than a 4/5. put a defensive anchor center behind him for that. but I don't think he's quick enough laterally, and doesn't often look engaged either, to defend the perimeter. offensively he's got a great handle and passing ability. the jumbo initiator is what everyone in the nba is looking for. his shooting, especially off catch and shoot, got better. I'm not sold on his ability as a scorer, per se. he doesn't create great separation and is too reliant on the mid range. however, those skill things, I think he can work on. just like I think jabari can. the physical traits I don't think either can work on. defense/quickness being banchero's red flag, and vertical/finishing at the rim being Jabari's.

now I mentioned Garry bird only to illustrate that he was a catch and shoot threat earlier in the season much like jabari will be. as teams got wise and started closing out, Garry adjusted and was able to put the ball on the floor by attacking the closeout. one or two dribbles into the paint isn't all that hard to learn. I think jabari only really needs to be able to do that to meet expectations because he's elite elsewhere. not saying he'll be this good, but how often does Klay Thompson dribble or create in iso? he once scored 60 in 11 dribbles, 43 in 4 dribbles. again I don't think we'll ever see anything like that again, and I wouldn't make that comparison for jabari, but I'm just making the point there is a way to be very effective without dribbling if you're an elite shooter.

now I'll try to answer your question as best I can, I thought I did before. if he has supreme work ethic and drive, why doesn't he have a dribble game yet? I can't pretend to see the future and guarantee he will ever get one. however, is it possible that an 18 year old is not yet a finished product? it seems he spent his time working on shooting and defense until they were elite. I happen to believe he has plenty of time ahead of him to work on the other skills he's lacking, and that he's got the drive to get there. but I can't give you any guarantees. how often did

to your last couple points, I flip flop all the time over how to order the top 4. I just believe in Jabari's floor. and I think anytime you can get elite shooting and defense its a great start. but I won't tell you you're wrong if you think banchero will be better. as for Jabari's shots being low efficiency, its just not the case since he shot them at high efficiency. I could play devil's advocate and say banchero's often contested mid range shots are more of a concern, but again I think we're splitting hairs and would be lucky to get any of the top 4.

 

There are three questions going into the lottery:

1. Who do you go with if you have the #1 pick?

2. Who do you pick between Chet/Banchero, Banchero/Jabari, Chet/Jabari if you have the #2?

3. Who do you choose with the #5 pick?

Third pick is a no-brainer--you take the one of Chet/Jabari/Banchero that is left. Fourth pick seems to coalescing around Ivey.

My current thinking is Chet, Banchero, Jabari in that order but I don't know squat and would be happy with any of those three.
Ivey would be a good consolation prize at 4th even though it adds to some roster imbalances.

For the fifth pick, I have no clue though I'm leaning Murray.

After we know the order, there should be only one of those three questions left standing though it'd be fun if Stone could cut a deal to bring two questions in play.

 

What a fourth question of "What do we trade the pick for?"

 

Klay has a much quicker release and his ability to drive helps him get his shot off, Klay has a very advanced dribble game so anyone guarding him has to account for that, the same will not happen with Smith since he does not have an advanced dribble game and he does not like to dribble more than 2 times.

I never said Smith is a finished product you are kinda moving the goal post, the question is fairly straightforward, and you have yet to address it, let me make it simple, if he has this supreme drive and work ethic why can't he dribble at an average level?

So which is it does he not think dribbling is important, can he not do it naturally or he has never worked on it all of those should give pause.

I have no idea what Banchero's mid range game has to do with Smith's outright refusal to dribble you are really reaching, Banchero was counted on to be the focal point of the offense, so he had to score in different ways, I don't like his mid-range game as much either but luckily has a multitude of other skills that he has actually shown that translate.

I also think we would be lucky to get any of the 4, but that does not mean I am worried about Smith's inability to dribble at a high level if he cannot develop that skill he will be a high end 3&D guy and I would pick a number of other guys over him than the other 3.

I don't know why you think changing up shot selection is as big a red flag as never dribbling more than 2 times.

I will say if anything is a red flag about Banchero its him not being aggressive enough for my liking, but I can say the same for Smith and Holmgren.

This word elite is being thrown around way too much, do we know Smith's defense is elite once he is in the NBA?

 

That is indeed a question, but in order to answer that, you have to answer one of the other three questions before you can start to put any value on a trade. Also, I don't think that's a scenario that is likely. My guess is we stick with the process and build through the draft and look at free agency next year.

 

We are not talking about a complete game, we are talking about being to dribble for shot creation.

Nobody is knocking him for not having a complete, comment on the actual issue.

 

The more I ruminate on this the more I want Chet with #1 and Mark Williams with #17.

Just adding those 2 players would put a veritable lid on the rim and elevate the worst defense in NBA to top 15, minimum.

Even with Wood in starting lineup.

 

Chet

Very High IQ, Elite defense, very versatile as a big who can shoot. He also doesn't need the ball in his hands to impact the game and can fit in the frontcourt next to either a scoring big or pnr big. Epitome of what an nba team needs as their modern day everyday big