I think that there are going to be two Highschool bust in the draft. 1. Tyson Chandler hes got the highet but not the body and the skill. 2. Kedrick Brown people Celtics like him but I think he hasn't got enough skills. Then Two Stars 1. kwame Brown- This guy has lots of muscle and skills he can do it all except hit the far jumper. 2. Eddy Curry- This guy is the other star he has the most potential for a highschooler and is pretty good. Then there is two studs 1. Desagana Doip- He is good but not great. 2. Ousminin Cissy- He is strong but his skills are alright. ------------------ [This message has been edited by Justin (edited June 25, 2001).]
High School Players to enter NBA (since 1997) http://ln.infoplease.com/ipsa/A0003347.html Tony Kappen 1946-47 Connie Simmons 1946-56 Joe Graboski 1948-62 Reggie Harding 1963-68 Moses Malone 1974-95 Bill Willoughby 1975-84 Darryl Dawkins 1975-89 Kevin Garnett 1995— Kobe Bryant 1996— Jermaine O'Neal 1996— Tracy McGrady 1997— Note: Kappen started out in the American Basketball League and Malone started out in the American Basketball Association. Because they enrolled in a college, Lloyd Daniels (Mount St. Antonio), Thomas Hamilton (Pittsburgh) and Shawn Kemp (Kentucky/Trinity Valley CC) were not included on this list. 1998-2000 I pulled from nbadraft.net http://www.nbadraft.net/history.htm 1998 25. Indiana Al Harrington St. Patrick's HS 32. Seattle Rashard Lewis Alief Elsik HS 1999 5. Toronto Jonathan Bender Picayune (Miss.) H.S. 29 San Antonio (e) Leon Smith Martin Luther King HS (IL) 2000 3. L.A. Clippers Darius Miles East St. Louis HS 23. Utah (from Mia.) DeShawn Stevenson Washington Union HS my count since 1946 would be 17... ill only comment on the ones which played while ive been alive(13)... Good: Moses Malone Darryl Dawkins Kevin Garnett Kobe Bryant Jermaine O'Neal Tracy McGrady Rashard Lewis Darius Miles Bad: Leon Smith Bill Willoughby Questionable: DeShawn Stevenson Jonathan Bender Al Harrington 8 out of 13...ill take those odds...BTW i forgot two sandwiches was essentially a nba to HS kid...maybe rudy isnt so hung up on the college senior thing.. ------------------
Hydra made a good point awhile back: I think that the high percentage of high schoolers who turn out well in the NBA can be attributed to the fact that people are hesitant to draft high schoolers. Only the very best are drafted, so of course the success rate is going to be high. In this vein of thinking, add these guys to the list of "did not even get drafted" 1996 - Taj McDavid, Palmetto HS (SC) 1998 - Ellis Richardson, Polytechnic HS (CA) and most likely 2001 - Tony Key, Centennial H.S. (CA) The point here is that some HSers are not even worthy of a late second rounder. ------------------
Here's a few others off the top of my head: Darryl Dawkins (Stud?) Bill Willoughby (ex-Rocket) Moses Malone (Star) Connie Hawkins (Star) Connie Hawkins played for the University of Iowa. ------------------
The list of players pre-1997 says players who went to the NBA straight out of high school. Does it include players like Leon Smith who were drafted, but never made it to the NBA? ------------------ "If you don't understand it, don't try to understand it." -Carl Everett
i really like high school players (the nba stars have to come from somewhere, and the majority of them have been just like curry, brown, etc. - top of their high school class, mcd's all american and the like...sure there are some busts but i'd take the chance. bender and harrington will be dominators in the future i would bet. bender broke the mcdonalds game's all time scoring record haha yeah all star games are showboating and not really basketball but the person who held it before he broke it - michael jordan. so i think with time they will become killers) plus i mean let's go back and remember shane battier and tracy mcgrady as the top of their high school class. battier was 1, and mcgrady was 2. now i see tracy mcgrady pouring in 26 points a game in what would have been his senior year of college. so i don't really buy the whole "they will never learn the game" argument, and i tend to agree with kwame brown's statements that college really isn't about an education, etc i'm sure you've seen them and if not i'm too lazy to look the article up hahaha ok i just don't care enough to. but if mcgrady had gone 4 years like battier had, and was in this draft do you think he would come in and dominate with 27 or so points a game like he will next year? no...he would still have to "adjust to the nba game" just like he did out of high school, and we would have had 4 less years to watch this killer. of course everyone says tracy mcgrady, is special, but i mean if he was this once in a millenium sure fire nba dominator why was shane battier high school player of the year/ranked number one over him...maybe if shane had gone to the nba, he would have been the one pouring in 20+ points a game haha probably not but i'm just saying that it seems anyone who is going to be a star takes 2 or 3 years to come into their own whether it's from college after four years or high school. ------------------
here's another the Nets' Stephen Jackson, he was a high school player, drafted in second round by Phoenix, cut befoer season, floated round the world plating ball fro 2-3 years and then back with Nets last year which would have been his first assuming he gone through 4yrs of College. Him and Pacer players are examples of what patient learning and teaching of high school players can do..... ------------------ "The things I enjoy most, I suck at: 1) Sex: everything's fine until she makes noises." - Achebe Smegs Mock Draft
To put some reality in to this, it doesn't matter what percentage of high schoolers are bust UNLESS you know what percentage of college picks are busts. I've being doing some statistical analaysis of the draft lately which fits nicely into this context. I evaluated each 1st round pick from 1990 to 2000 on a scale of (1 - star, 1.5, 2 - starter, very good backup, 2.5, 3 - solid bench player, 3.5, 4 - total bust). I then evaluated what should be expected of each pick (ie the average #1 was a 1.5, the average #27 was a 3.5). Thus, if you take the expected value and subtract the actual one, you can evaluate the quality of any pick on a scale from roughly 3 (best) to -3 (worst). So, let's look at the high schoolers: Garnett - +0.9 Bryant - +1.1 O'Neal - +0.9 McGrady - +1.4 Harrington - +0.5 Bender - -1.6 Smith - -0.7 Miles - 0 Stevenson - -0.5 We see from the list that younger players generally look worse -- I'm certain that at least some of this is that they have yet to develop. Despite the Bender pick, which by my system is currently the single worst first round pick of the last 11 years, high schoolers generally look awful good. They average out to slightly more than 0.2, which is far above the average (obviously 0). An argument can be made that high schoolers are slightly more unpredictable. The average standard deviation of individual players' values is roughly 0.7. For high schoolers, it is over .9. While this isn't a large sample, it is not unreasonable to suggest that high schoolers are tougher to judge. ------------------ Keep GP Homepage
