I'd trade mcgrady for bosh obviously, but as far as gutting the team to clear up space for him to sign outright? no thanks.
Bosh is nice, but not worth the max. He can be of use if we had the money to sign another FA like Wade,who is worth the max. Yao and Bosh can't fit,whether Yao stays here for a year or over the long term.
The bottom line is we need an allstar, Bosh may not be cream of the crop but we have to start somewhere. He is the best available atm.
Pretty good analysis. A couple of your numbers are off (for instance, Scola's and Lowry's cap holds are more than the numbers you are using), but you seem to be on the right track about clearing cap room by having to renounce some players' rights and not pick up some team options on others. The Rockets' 2010-11 salary commitments look more like this: Yao - $17.69M (player option, but will most likely be exercised) Battier - $7.35M Scola - $6.77M cap hold (200% of 2009-10 salary) Ariza - $6.03M (2nd year salary of full MLE deal - number will be set July 8) Lowry - $6.10M cap hold (300% of 2009-10 salary) Landry - $3.00M team option Hayes - $2.30M team option Brooks - $2.02M team option (but will be exercised in Oct. 09) 2009 1st rd. pick (#13?) - $1.60M (rookie scale WITHOUT typical 20% raise) Dorsey - $0.95M (partially guaranteed) Taylor - $0.76M (minimum salary - if guaranteed or team option) Budinger - $0.76M (minimum salary - if guaranteed or team option) (While this totals 12 roster spots, note that the league imposes a Roster Charge of ~ $474k, the 2010-11 rookie minimum, for every roster spot under 12 counting against the salary cap) Total = Approx. $55.33M in total salaries (assuming that Tracy McGrady's, Brian Cook's, and Brent Barry's rights are all renounced) Assuming that the salary cap either stays the same or goes down from the 2007-08 figure ($58.68M) due to the current economic crisis, we're likely looking at a 2010 salary cap figure of about $58.00M or so. $58.00M - $55.33M = $2.67M in cap room for the Rockets as a starting point. Now, let's look at what the Rockets will need to consider with their players. FYI, I am not touching on Yao, who will most likely exercise his player option for 2010-11 and will NOT be traded, nor am I touching on Trevor Ariza, who is obviously a big part of the re-building effort and likewise would not be traded): CHUCK HAYES: The first move to open up additional cap room would probably be to not pick up the $2.30M team option on Chuck Hayes, perhaps hoping to re-sign him later in the summer for a lower figure. This would increase the Rockets' cap room to $4.97M. Keep in mind, however, that the team will lose all Bird rights to Hayes, so if they use all of their cap room on a major free agent like Bosh, they can only sign Chuck to the league minimum. JOEY DORSEY: The next possible move would be to waive Joey Dorsey. However, this move would have very minimal salary cap implications to the Rockets, since Dorsey's 2010-11 salary is partially guaranteed (for how much, I don't know). If the guaranteed amount is more than the difference between Dorsey's full salary and the rookie minimum, then the Rockets would actually LOSE cap room by waiving Dorsey (since both his guaranteed salary amount AND a roster charge of $474k would still count against the cap). Therefore, waiving Dorsey may not be a smart move for the Rockets. It all depends on how much of Dorsey's deal is guaranteed and what impact he has on the team next year. So, let's just stick with the $4.97M in cap room. JERMAINE TAYLOR & CHASE BUDINGER: I also think that only signing Taylor and Budinger to one-year deals is not a good idea. Sure, waiving them (or possibly not picking up team options) could create SOME space, it wouldn't create more than about $580k in total additional cap room (since their $762k salaries would be replaced anyway by $474k roster charges). So, again, let's keep that cap room at $4.97M. AARON BROOKS: The Rockets will need to decide whether to exercise their team option on Aaron Brooks for the fourth year of his rookie deal by the end of THIS October. This is a no-brainer, so we'll definitely include his $2.02M 2010-11 salary. This is where the decisions become difficult. CARL LANDRY: The Rockets also have a $3.00M team option on Carl Landry that they do not need to exercise until July 1, 2010. Still, given Landry's production, it is likely that the Rockets keep him around as a relative bargain at $3M. One interesting note here is that, if the Rockets decide not to pick up the team option on Landry, then Carl would once again be a RESTRICTED free agent, with the Rockets being able to match any offer he receives from another team. Unfortunately, be not picking up the team option on Landry, it would cause Landry's "cap hold" to increase to as high as $6M. If the Rockets are going full-bore for a max free agent, then they will likely pick up Landry's option and risk losing him as an UNRESTRICTED free agent in 2011. KYLE LOWRY: I'm on the fence with this situation. Lowry is an excellent backup PG (by the way, I think Rockets fans haven't seen anything yet with how good Lowry can be), but his "cap hold" of $6.1M is higher than the salary he would likely command in free agency. Sure, the Rockets would likely extend him the $2.9M qualifying offer, but Lowry would be a full to take that one-year deal on the first day of free agency (which is when the Rockets need to have their cap situation in hand by if they want a Chris Bosh) when Kyle can take his time and see what the market will pay for his services. If the Rockets can negotiate an extension with Lowry THIS summer (let's say to a deal paying him $4M per), then the Rockets' cap room next summer would increase by $2.1M. The figure at this point is now up to $7.07M. Or, if Daryl Morey must bite the bullet, the Rockets could renounce their rights to Lowry and completely lose him to free agency. In this case, the Rockets cap room jumps to a now-respectable $11.07M. LUIS SCOLA: This is another toughy. Scola will have a "cap hold" of $6.77M. As a restricted free agent, Scola is likely to attract offer sheets in excess of that amount. If another team really wanted Scola (and REALLY wanted to screw with the Rockets), they could offer Scola an offer sheet starting at $8M or so and force the Rockets to quicky decide whether to match. Once Scola signs an offer sheet, his "cap hold" changes to that amount. It would be in the Rockets' best interest, assuming they want to keep him, to convince Scola not to sign any offer sheets until the Rockets can settle their cap situation and begin pursuit of a major free agent. Unfortunately, since a max contract would likely start at around $17M, the Rockets are shy by about $6M or so in cap room. If Bosh is willing to come to Houston on July 1, the Rockets would very likely need to renounce their rights to Scola (who would have been the perfect complement to Bosh). SHANE BATTIER: This one absolutely kills me. Even though he is by far my favorite player in the world, it is becoming more and more apparent that the simplest way for the Rockets to clear away enough cap room for 2010 would be for the team to trade Battier. His $7.35M is the largest salary on the Rockets' roster that Les would ever be willing to trade. By trading him for an expiring contract, the Rockets would be able to keep both Scola and Lowry and would still have $12.32M in cap room, perhaps close enough to get a second-tier major free agent, or if the Rockets also renounce the rights to Lowry, the team could keep Scola and still comfortably sign a max free agent with their $18.42M in cap room. Another scenario that I might be interested in would be to trade Battier to Portland (ugh!, I know) for Rudy Fernandez ($1.25M salary in 2010-11) and a re-signed Channing Frye on an inflated one-year deal to make salaries match (and to be a stop-gap option at center). That trade would enable the Rockets to have cap room of up to: (a) if Lowry and Scola are kept, $11.07M; (b) if Scola is kept and Lowry is renounced, $17.17M; and (c) if both Scola and Lowry are renounced, $23.94M. I think Option (b) would be best, since the $17.17M would be right around the max (and if Bosh wanted to be a b**** about it, the Rockets could waive Dorsey to get all the way to the max in cap room). Bottom line: Letting McGrady's contract expire will not create nearly enough cap room to land a max salary free agent in the summer of 2010. Given the CURRENT roster situation for the Rockets (which is totally subject to change, which could render this entire post completely irrelevant), the Rockets would need to say goodbye to Chuck Hayes, Kyle Lowry and ONE of Luis Scola or Shane Battier. Tough decisions coming for Daryl Morey and the Rockets.
Damn, Bima. Thanks for the breakdown. In fact, this probably deserves its own thread. Idea: you should create a salary cap and FA thread that the mods can sticky much like the "Magic Numbers" thread we had going into the playoffs.
Damn why not make a trade for Bosh now? Give the Raptors TMac, Landry, and another player. I would hope the Raptors would like to trade Bosh instead of losing him next Summer for nothing.
the cap holds are only there until you resign those players. OMR was assuming that lowry would be signed to abut 3 mill. once he is signed, the 6 mill cap hold is reduced to his actual salary, thus creating (in this case) 3 mill of added cap space. in your analysis, our $2.6M would actually look more like $5.6M. if you renounce the rights to hayes and dorsey (very likely), that jumps another $3.2M, bringing the total cap space to $8.8M. unless scola or battier are traded that is the amount of cap space the rockets are looking at. now let's assume that one of those players will be traded for an ending contract to which the rockets renounce next summer, and a draft pick. they would add at least scola's cap hold money to the cap room jumping an extra 6.8 mill to $15.6M. simply put, sign lowry to a fair contract ($3M). trade scola for a crappy player coming off the books, and a draft pick to bring back value. you then have your max contract offer.
Damn good analysis on the cap situation. I have what may be a stupid question, and am really too lazy to look it up on Coon's Salary Cap page. Is it possible to renounce one of our own players, say Lowry, to sign Bosh, and then resign Lowry to the Mid level exception? It's a way to circumvent the cap hold, I would think. We'd renounce his rights, use the cap hold amount to assist us in signing Bosh, and then resign Lowry for a portion of the mid-level. I wouldn't think anyone would sign Lowry for more than the mid-level, and we would probably be a place that he would love to play with the possible lineup that would result. Does anyone know if this is legal? Jon
...you can't use the MLE two years in a row so no, you couldn't do that since we just used the MLE on Ariza.
Awesome breakdown once again. I have a feeling you're right about Battier, and it might be why the Rockets favored getting Ariza rather than Gortat. Battier is the one that we can deal away and free up cap room for 2010 most easily, and having Ariza (not quite the same player, but similar enough) makes it easier to lose him.
What they need to do is convince Yao that the only way the Rockets can win a championship is if he opts out of his contract next off season and resign for some like 10-12 mil a year. I know...only in a perfect world...but that is what needs to happen. Along with trading Battier.
Unfortunately, smoothie, while this could work theoretically, it would not be realistic given the timing of it all. The "big fish" in free agency typically agree in principal during the July moratorium period (like we're in now), let alone once free agents are officially permitted to begin signing contracts. Negotiating a new deal with Lowry will take time. Kyle may want to explore his options. Perhaps there is another team out there that would offer most or all of its MLE to him. He and his agent won't know until they go out and shop him to the rest of the league. By the time the Rockets and Lowry could agree on a new contract, Bosh will likely be long gone. No, they cannot do that. The MLE is only for teams that are either over the cap or that renounce their (minimal) cap room. If the Rockets are anywhere close to far enough under the cap to be going after Bosh, then they will not have the MLE available to them. You are thinking of the Bi-Annual Exception (commonly known as the LLE). The Rockets used it last year on Brent Barry, so they don't have it available this summer (man, they sure could have used it this summer . . . oh, well). The MLE is available every year, as long as the team is over the cap or otherwise renounces its cap room.
good point. but my point to just to say if the rockets want max space in 2010 it's not too difficult to achieve. scola for an ending and a pick, same for lowry, same for shane. any two out of those 3 players traded for an ending and a pick(s) would give us max space.
The question is: do the Rockets just dump Scola and/or Lowry for a future pick and the CHANCE to sign Bosh? Or do they hold onto them (foregoing the future picks) and wait to see if Bosh is truly attainable while retaining the right to re-sign them in case Bosh doesn't sign? I think Morey will opt for the latter unless he has a STRONG indication that Bosh will come to Houston.
First, every player can be traded if you get sufficient value back. Second, I don't think getting liquidation value for, say, Scola or Battier (i.e. contract dump and minimum talent return like a low 1st round pick) is a good idea simply because you are trying to clear salary righ tnot to chase Bosh. This is becasue I think it's better to have, say, $16 million in cap room + reasonably priced talent than $22 million after selling off $6 million worth of decent talent just to clear the room. With all the higher-priced free agents, one possiblity has alway been sign & trades even if you don't have cap room. Assuming your extra $6 million in contract is actually worth their money, it's probalby easy enough to include them in a S&T deal, or to trade them that season in order to create room at that time when you are more sure about the market. This is NOT like the Knicks situation, where they are trying to dump guys like Curry who are clearly bad contracts regardless of the 2010 free agency.
