The key to any successful running back is an offensive line and a balanced offense. Alex Gibbs has proven time and time again that he can produce huge numbers with even average backs (Warrick Dunn, Olandis Gary, Mike Anderson, etc). It's all about creating the holes and making that one cut to find them. So even if Slaton is only as good as those guys, we are in good shape. I think he's better, though. Maybe even along the lines of Portis or Terrell Davis, both of whom shined under Gibbs. To the point- I see no reason to doubt Slaton's ability. He may not be as talented as the scheme makes him look, but he obviously showed he can make the cuts and has homerun ability. The fact that he can break tackles and carry the pile makes it even better. If you're gonna worry about anything with this team, make it the damn defense.
It probably is true that other teams underplan for him, but to believe that every team kept that trend last year? Maybe for the first half of the year, but DC's should have picked up on tape eventually that Slaton can make plays and adjusted schemes to counter the type of runner Slaton was. He put up 100yd games against the Titans twice last year, a tough defense that already knew how to handle cannonballers like Jones Drew. Watching Slaton truck through the line and squeeze out extra yards after contact, combined with an airgame that can make a play any down, I can't see Slaton regressing. He even manages to prdouce some yardage from those damned dinky dunk plays that always show up on 3rd and longs.
his own coach was (initially) dubious, pgabriel. he played in a gimmick offense in college; that can tend to inflate your numbers significantly. i mean, he averaged 7 ypc one year - that's just insane.
fair point. yours were, too, vinsensual. lol. i'm not *exclusively* worried about slaton... plenty of worry to go around.
....and if he could have put up better than 9 carries for 11 yards against hopeless 5-7 Pitt they could have played for the National Championship (calm down, just having some fun referencing what was in my opinion the STRANGEST and most unexpected sporting event that i've ever witnessed.....i've never seen anything like the way that game went down)
one correction, he was not injured during the 07 season, he just had a down year compared to the previous but it was still a good season.
This kind of assumes that everyone performs to their draft levels. No one expects the 3rd round pick to be a star - if they did, they wouldn't have been a 3rd round pick. There are countless examples of players in the mid to lower rounds that were fliers that turn out to be good players. I think it's more of a case of people simply not knowing how someone's game will translate to the NFL.
Ric, this is at least the 2nd time I've seen you voice concerns that Slaton might have a letdown kind of year. Is there anything about the guy, football-wise, that makes you think that? Or are you basing all your concerns on his draft position and the fact that many teams did not expect him to be as good as he seemed last season? I mean, everything that excites me about Slaton -- his speed, his vision, his ability to gain yards after contact and his pass catching ability -- are things that I wouldn't expect to regress from year to the next (unless the weight he put on hurts his speed or quickness...which by all accounts it hasn't). Sure, maybe teams will game plan for him more this season, but I honestly think teams will still be much more worried about Schaub to Andre Johnson (who is getting much more media run this offseason than Slaton) than they are our running game. I'm just curious if your skepticism is based solely on your feeling that Slaton is just too good to be true.
it's not skepticism so much as.... guarded optimism. he didn't simply outplay expectations last year - he shattered them. to pieces. no one, not even his head coach, expected that kind of season out of steve slaton. hell, he wasn't even the opening day starter. i don't *expect* a regression... i'm just not going to be shocked if there is one. and i think *automatically* assuming he'll duplicate or improve on his rookie season is... a touch naive. its not uncommon for rookies to take a step back in season #2. BUT... it's a good offense and a good system - that should help. the fingers are certainly crossed. i just think, other than schaub's health, slaton's sophomore season is my biggest concern on that side of the ball.
of course; i agree. but using that same logic, you could argue defensive coaches had the same issue (not knowing what he was capable of) which led to a surprise better-than-expected season. should we expect teams to be sleeping on slaton again this year?..........
True - for the first few games. But by game 8 or 10 or 12, the Texans knew what they had in Slaton, as did opposing defensive coordinators. And it didn't seem to affect his performance.
The fact that we're running the Gibbs blocking scheme actually lends itself more to Ric's guarded optimism. As you say, Denver was producing 1000 yard backs every year. But there's still a difference among them though. Olandis Gary and Mike Anderson both had terrific first seasons, and then became also-rans for the rest of their careers. While Terrell Davis and Clinton Portis were true superstar running backs. I'm leaning more towards Slaton being the latter, because his YPC last year were incredible. But that said, you just never know about these things when the system factors into the success.
You didn't really answer my question. So you say you wouldn't be surprised if he has a regression. Again, is that based on any football reasons that you have seen in observing him run, or is that based solely on the idea that he was drafted well below his value based on last seasons production?
The point was that as long as he's in this system I don't think we have any reason to worry about a lack of production. Sure, if we changed coaching staff or he went to another team, he might have a drop-off...who knows. But as long as he is here in this system I think we will have a productive Steve Slaton, no matter what his talent level really is. I believe Olandis Gary made the mistake of going to Cleveland to be a feature back. He probably would've extended his career by sharing the load somewhere. And Anderson was a fullback trying to play running back. I think he had a fairly long career though.
it begins with what is probably my own natural cynicism - as i said earlier, i need him to do it twice before assuming he's destined for ultra-productive, 1,300-yard seasons year-in and year-out. i would feel that way about *any* second-year player - but double for rookies who have "surprise" first seasons that catch everyone - even their head coach - off guard.
teams simply aren't this impulsive. they don't start rewriting formulas on the fly because an unheralded rookie strings together a nice game or 2 here and there. nfl reaction is *always* glacial. that's another reason i fear a regression - i think they *will* be more actively game-planning for him this year.
i don't fear regression because i think he's legit. if the coaches were surprised by his production and ability that's fine, they still drafted him. the third round is still fairly high for a running back, I can't believe they really were expending a third round pick on a guy just to be a third down back. secondly, they have a very well rounded offense. let them focus on slaton, daniels will kill them over the middle.
This makes no sense. You don't think that a team would gameplan for a strong running game if a team exhibits a strong running game? It's not like you gameplan for a Texans game in Week 14 in the preseason. You start gameplanning for them a few weeks before gameday. Take Atlanta last year for example. No one expected Matt Ryan to be that good, that fast. Do you think teams late in the season just gameplanned for Atlanta pretending they had a sucky QB? Now, I don't disagree that Slaton might regress. But I think that has to do with the simple fact that running backs are notoriously fickle and have randomly good or bad seasons all the time. I don't think it's going to be because teams suddenly decide he's a legit player and decide to try to stop him.
