What is your current Rockets Top 5 Draft Big board?

https://theathletic.com/4554035/2023/05/29/rockets-2023-nba-draft/

Anyway, without further ado, here’s our first installment of our Rockets big board. To assist me, I reached out to a high-ranking scout for their perspective of talent and a potential fit in Houston.

1. Amen Thompson | 6-7 lead guard | 20 years old | Overtime Elite

Scout’s take: Gives you a lot of credibility on the defensive end based on the competitiveness, size and tools. Offensively, the fit is going to be unique because while he can playmake and is an athletic finisher, he’s limited by his shooting ability. But I do think he would be a great help as far as defensively, athletically. The offensive fit might be a bit challenging.

From The Athletic: Outside of the aforementioned names, it’s easy to see why Amen’s upside has folks at full attention.

It’s sometimes challenging juxtaposing fit and the best player available, especially for a team like Houston that is trying to move between phases, but there’s a reason why so many within the Rockets organization are so enamored with him. Everything about him oozes potential. The defensive intensity and attention to detail. The explosiveness and athleticism. The ballhandling and playmaking. It’s hard to not see those qualities in a young player and not envision what he could look like next to Jalen Green, a gifted young scorer and elite athlete. There are those who will deem the fit clunky but there are always ways to maximize talent. Introduce more cutting, off-ball actions, etc.

Yes, I understand the shooting concerns. He’s shown some midrange flashes but I know some of the mechanics might be a bit off. But who comes into the league as a complete player? And let’s be honest, it’s not like he’d be walking into a team full of ready-made shooters. Houston has some roster reworking to do but more importantly, it needs talent. Amen is a talented player who can flat-out jump out of the gym. We’ll see how his defense translates to the next level, but he has all the tools of an impactful ball-stopper. Active hands. Lateral quickness. Shiftiness. It’s there.

At the NBA Combine, Amen spoke like a man who knows his worth and talent. He’s confident in himself and what he brings to the table. Of all of the names you’ll see here, I wouldn’t be that surprised if his name was called in the top three on draft night. But that would of course mean that one of Miller or Henderson would be on the board in which case, that player would be in a Houston uniform.

2. Cam Whitmore | 6-7 wing | 18 years old | Villanova

Scout’s take: Another high-level athlete and finisher. Has to be more engaged on the defensive end. Has to improve his shooting and tweak his mechanics a bit. Needs to improve his IQ and make better decisions with the ball. He’s more of a transitional player than a half-court offensive player. Average shooting numbers but doesn’t always take good shots. He’s one that would benefit from playing with Ime Udoka but there would be some challenges and limitations there.

From The Athletic: Whitmore might be my favorite player in the draft, I’m high on this player. He graded well at the combine, giving real legitimacy to his athleticism and explosiveness. He’s a wrecking ball in the open floor, with good footwork and intangibles. Offensively, he’s probably farther ahead than a lot of peers, able to create his own shot and has three-level potential scoring in his arsenal at the next level. When you watch him shoot, his form comes off as awkward and will probably need to be sped up and smoothed out to be sustainable against smart defenders but Whitmore is a force of nature.

From a defensive standpoint, he’s probably more advanced than Amen Thompson. His active hands combined with his power come in handy on a routine basis, and he has the necessary handle and ability to kickstart transition opportunities.

Whitmore still needs time to learn to slow things down and process actions at an advanced rate. At times, he’s like a bull in a china shop. That’s fine at Villanova. That won’t cut it in the NBA. He had a long leash in college that resulted in him taking many of low-percentage shots. He’ll need smart players around him to iron out his kinks, but there’s talent there. Houston would have an exciting in-game trio of Green, Jabari Smith Jr. and Whitmore. Alternatively, he could be inserted off the bench to give the second unit an offensive spark, something that was lacking last season.

3. Ausar Thompson | 6-7 wing | 20 years old | Overtime Elite

Scout’s take: They’re (Ausar and Amen) similar players. Ausar is a slightly better shooter but at the end of the day as twins, they have similar games. I know people can agree to disagree on that but they’re both really competitive defenders. They’re both capable playmakers but I wouldn’t quite call them point guards. They both have shooting challenges and they’re both super athletes. They help from Day 1 defensively because they’re going to compete their rear off. It’s just a matter of putting them in the right position offensively. There’s gotta be some creativity for the time being until their shot gets right.

From The Athletic: Ausar and Amen are going to be talked about in similar tones and for good reason. Like Amen, Ausar is an incredible athlete who has shown real potential in his defense translating to the NBA. Ausar has comparable footwork, quick-twitch instincts and timing to his brother, although he’s probably more adept at handling bigger matchups.

There seem to be differing opinions on who’s a better playmaker between the two, but Ausar’s individuality speaks volumes. He’s an intentional playmaker, understanding the reads presented to him and he wants to keep the ball moving. I like to think of him as more of a smooth operator with the ball in his hands, more point-forwardish than lead ballhandler type but still a must-have within an offensive setup.

Ausar is a better shooter but not by much. He’s going to need to seriously work at that aspect of his game but there’s a reality in which he obliterates individual team workouts and rises up the boards slowly but surely. Big fan of Ausar’s finishing ability already.

 

4. Jarace Walker | 6-8 forward | 19 years old | Houston

Scout’s take: Has a lot of tools. Willing defender. Skilled. The jury’s still out on his shooting, how aggressive he is, and his physicality. Can definitely go one of two ways. But he’s interesting. Fit-wise, he could be a really good role player. A 3-and-D role, maybe he can do more.

From The Athletic: This player is a defensive freak of nature. Walker made some headlines at the combine for checking in at 6-6 1/2 without shoes on. Big whoop. Once he laces them bad boys on, he’s at least a solid 6-7 3/4 with an incredible 7-2 wingspan. Uh, I think Udoka can work with that.

Vicious point of attack defender. Walker’s ability to cover ground efficiently is what will make front offices ponder over the next few weeks how high they have him on their boards. There aren’t that many players in this draft who are built like tight ends and move like All-Pro safeties. Should thrive in a multi-scheme setting, maximizing his versatility and ability to switch matchups while also understanding his importance and potential in rim protection.

The build and defensive ability make me think of Usman Garuba a bit but Walker is a more comfortable shooter outside of just the corners and he’s confident with the ball in his hands. He’s powerful going downhill, can put the ball on the floor some and has the footwork and IQ to make things happen underneath the free-throw line.

Walker and Smith would form quite the defensive tandem in the frontcourt and his tenacity should help out Alperen Şengün with some matchups at times, but like some others on this list, he’s going to have to become more of a reliable threat from outside to make him a true weapon. But as far as Swiss Army Knives go, Walker is just that.

5. Anthony Black | 6-7 guard | 19 years old | Arkansas

Scout’s take: True point guard in terms of his ability to make others better in pick-and-roll. Really impressive court vision and sees plays before they happen. Has defensive potential and can be versatile based on his size. Moves well enough. Shooting is definitely a question mark and that could lead to being a challenging fit but definitely has the ability to be a high-level reserve or starter. Has some limitations as a scorer, both as a shooter and finisher.

From The Athletic: Black’s media session stood out to me in the midst of the combine’s business because of how highly he spoke of his abilities but also the areas of his game where he needs to improve. There’s no doubt his mindset is going to take him very far in this league.

Of course, you could say that about several participants but there’s just so much to like with Black. From a point guard/ballhandler’s perspective, Black is always going to make the smart, correct play. He doesn’t tend to force things as a playmaker, which is incredibly important at the NBA level. At 6-7, he has an innate advantage over smaller matchups and is already a quality operator of the pick-and-roll. A mixture of Lonzo and LaMelo Ball, in my opinion, crazy hair and all.

Elsewhere, Black is a conscious offensive talent that does everything deliberately. He knows how to finish over bigger defenders, knows how to evade other quicker ones. Defensively, Black is as solid as they come in his class. He has the quickness to stay in front of opponents, the hands to poke balls free and get around screens and understands angles. He’s another candidate to rise up rapidly once he gets to individual team workouts.

Black might struggle to create his own shot because of his lack of a consistent outside shot (which seems to be a trend with several guys on this list) and isn’t going to blow you away with his explosiveness and athleticism. Tough defenders will pressure him and force him to make quick decisions but he’d look nice next to Green in Houston’s backcourt, able to create great looks for him and be a stabilizing force for everyone else.

 

I like that big board. Assuming Iko was given hints by the Rockets themselves, it doesn't seem far off from what I (and many I assume?) would want. Excluding Scoot and Miller I guess, which is where some debates are had.

I will say I'm still a Jarace skeptic. Well, not overall. Watching the breakdown Spins did with Caitlin Cooper, in many ways I came away more impressed by him. Especially his processing ability (I knew it was good, but extra confirmation is always appreciated).

I still just seem him as a 5 that can sorta play the 4 (or might need some work to play the 4, and no guarantee it works). And he'd probably still do very well in that role, but I'm just trying to figure out how that works with Sengun, Jabari, and even guys like Tari/Garuba/etc (maybe #20 and/or vet center via free agency). Even the scout says "a really good role player," which...sure that's good I guess, but why are we spending a #4 pick (or even top 6-8) on a potential role player? BPA I guess, but why not go with Black, another potential role player (IMO), though at least that comes from position of need (and one somewhat lacking in Free Agency).

I'm just repeating what I say elsewhere, though I hate being that guy since I do like quite a bit of what Jarace does. Might be easier if the team didn't have Sengun (and/or maybe Jabari). I'll be the designated Jarace hater though since we have plenty of haters for other guys. Come at me bro!

 

No need to come at you. I’m skeptical of every one of these guys including Jarace. I would take him over Miller. I watched both of them and Miller was pedestrian at best against good competition. Jarace stepped up in those instances. Miller’s handles are overrated and his shot is too slow. He isn’t even close as a defensive player to Jarace. Jarace is a starting 4 in this league for years to come. Role player or not, it is a decent return for the 4th pick in this draft. I can’t comment on Amen, because all I’ve seen of him are clips and some really weren’t that great. My order of preference after Wemby is Scoot, Amen or Jarace, Cam, Black, Miller.

 

I do still think there's a chance Jarace could be kind of an elite connective & defensive guy who is a good third scoring option. Maybe kind of, halfway in between Paul Millsap and Bam Adebayo?

You can see that being worth a top 5 pick if you strongly believe he'll reach that outcome. If he were about an inch taller and played just a bit more physical I would have more confidence of that being his outcome and I might still be as excited about him as I was at the beginning of my deep dive into this year's draft.

But my concerns have grown after finding out that he's more on the low end of what you can list as "6-foot-8"--hard to find too many centers who make it work at 6'6.5" without shoes--and after watching more full Houston games and seeing how soft he plays at times. He's so close to being right there with the top 5 in his class, but there are just enough little things that bother me that I've moved him back to around 6th or 7th on my board.

 

How to maximize an Amen Thompson? Since he seems like the most likely outcome for us at #4...

Random Monday morning thoughts, by Derp McFlopsky:

A) Draft Amen Thompson at #4
- BPA and potential star. Hard to ask for more at 4.
B) Offer whatever is necessary of Martin, Christopher, Washington and BKN's picks back to BKN for Bridges.
- Bridges may not be the A1 star, he certainly put up nice numbers in BKN to end the season but he's terrific support for the other 4 guys if/when they ascend to stardom. Doesn't break the bank either. Cashing in some draft assets but with 3 blue chips and way too many bench guys such a move doesn't hurt that badly, especially so because it doesn't impede future moves. He's an impact 3&D forward on a good contract entering his prime. There's a LOT of good in making this move for Bridges.
C) Sign Mike Conley, draft Jett Howard #20 for a sharpshooter on the bench
Conley is our coach on the floor veteran that is needed to reign in the young guys. Howard struggles to defend but there are plenty of good defenders here and what he brings as a pure shooter is something we need.
D) Thompson, Green, Bridges, Smith, Sengun (Starting 5)
- Conley, Porter, Tate, Howard, Eason, Garuba (bench)
Thompson has plenty of options to distribute and should enjoy lots of good spacing. He and Green in transition should be exciting. Bridges and Smith should be close to 40% 3 point shooters getting lots of good looks. Sengun should be able to do the same off his post ups, even Thompson as the obvious weak shooter can be hidden a bit filling the role of cutter. He can play in the dunker spot. Hell, he can even provide some vertical spacing as a lob threat. Porter provides scoring to the 2nd unit which also now has a sniper in Howard and the hustle squad Tate/Eason/Garuba.

There's a lot to like here, imo. I would be quite happy to see how this teams progresses.

 

Like it, but Conley (who I want as well) has to be traded for. He is under contract with Minn for 2 years and Minni doesn’t have another PG so he might be a tough get.

 

COME AT ME BRO!

Yeah, I'm not that big on Miller either, though I think his floor is kinda high-ish. He could be a great complimentary piece, especially if he does play solid D (not a given, like you alluded to).

I hear some people say Miller with increased strength could make him a Tatum-esque guy (as a ceiling), though even Tatum was shooting ~63% at the rim at 19 in the NBA (vs Miller @ 39% in half-court in college). Tatum also seemed to get 2-3x the % of shots in that area, and that's with Miller having a team with pretty good spacing concepts (at least in college).

Some people are shrugging that off, and maybe that's smart, but it does kinda concern me. We kinda saw what happens when Miller's shot isn't falling. If he's a secondary guy, no biggie, but as a primary, that isn't ideal IMO.

Yeah, I like Jarace individually for the reasons you mentioned, and I also worry about him for the same reasons.

Ultimately, I think he *could* reach that ceiling, but I just don't know if he could get that here with the Rockets. If you have a mini-Jokic or a (better?)Rashard Lewis, do you favor them less than a Paul Millsap/Bam Adebayo-esque player? (Well Bam is pretty good, though I'd still probably lean towards the other two?)

He does seem to be a very smart player, so part of me just wants to say screw it, he'll figure out a way to be great no matter where/how he plays.

But I'm a hater, so I'm going to say he's a wannabe Usman Garuba.

 

I let his game come at you.

All those prospects do not need validation by all the teams, they only need one team that has a need for them.

 

Harden is coming home! Also, he should draft Amen and Lively from Duke, then do a sign and trade(Martin, Tate, TyTY) for Bridges

 

Didn't know that... alright well... Schroder? LA is going to have trouble bringing back everyone and he obviously had an impact with us already.

 

No he isn't because we aren't paying 200m for 4 years of a fat out of shape quitter.

DD

 

Jarace is just a great basketball player, does everything well but won’t dominate in any single part of the game… although could get there defensively. Regardless, a very solid pick in the 5-10 range.

 

I listened to a bit of this just to get some perspective from a former front office guy...but he sounds kinda wacky I think? Unless I misheard/misunderstood, he threw out 40-44% 3pt shooting numbers as possible for Bilal Coulibaly (and saying this like it is easy to get there as a project), and compared Scoot to Monta Ellis (also...he's TOO SHORT). I'm not familiar with this guy, so no idea how respected he is. Maybe these are legit takes, but some of his opinions definitely seem to stray from consensus opinion.

I don't know if this should make us feel better or worse about what the front office people with the Rockets might think.

(haven't heard enough about other prospects, other than he thinks OTE might be hiding stuff because the Twins measured shorter there than what was listed...but yeah I assume that's just shoes...so not sure why he's so bothered)

 

fred patek

....somebody put hines ward in this thread

thought i would complement that

 

As far as attainable peeps.

1.Amen
2. Scoot
3. Ausar
4. Cam
5. Miller

 

I mean yeah, it's a roller coaster ride.

The real test comes after those prospects are done getting picked and have years of years to get better.

And if they are in the right position with the right franchise for their game to blossom even better.

 

Man it's such a letdown that the twins wasted their time in a church league so we can't accurately assess how good they really are. They might be awesome and they might be busts but we won't know till they hit the league cause they decided to play around with children in a worthless setting. Things like this make player evaluation so much harder.

 

How dare you fat shame.

 

I've shifted my board around a bit as I've been watching more tape and as we get closer. Of the options who could realistically be in play for us at #4, here is my board. The main movement is I've softened on Miller a bit. I still don't think he has all-NBA potential but I've come around on agreeing he's very likely to be a very good player. I've lowered Walker on my board as well primarily because as I've watched more full games, I'm worried he just plays too soft.

Dashed lines mark a tier break.

1. Scoot - Floor: Good starter/fringe All-Star. Ceiling: All-NBA First Team
---
2. Amen - Floor: Good bench player/low-end starter. Ceiling: All-NBA First Team
3. Miller - Floor: Good starter/fringe All-Star. Ceiling: Perennial All-Star
---
4. Ausar - Floor: Good bench player/low-end starter. Ceiling: Perennial All-Star
5. Whitmore - Floor: Good bench player/low-end starter. Ceiling: Perennial All-Star
---
6. Walker - Floor: Good bench player/low-end starter. Ceiling: Good starter/fringe All-Star.
7. Wallace - Floor: Good bench player/low-end starter. Ceiling: Good starter/fringe All-Star.
8. Hendricks - Floor: Good bench player/low-end starter. Ceiling: Good starter/fringe All-Star.