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What Is Up with T. Jones In the Last Month?

Discussion in 'NBA Dish' started by jtr, May 21, 2015.

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  1. jtr

    jtr Contributing Member

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    I have spent a month wondering if T. Jones is still injured. His performance has seemed to drop precipitously recently. So I charted out his performance since he returned from the nerve damage in his leg. In the chart below you can clearly see that Jones, after he got his conditioning back, performed at a high level from early February until March 12th.

    <a href="http://imgur.com/9SsPQhP"><img src="http://i.imgur.com/9SsPQhP.jpg" title="source: imgur.com" /></a>

    So then I wondered if T. Jones collapsed lung has had an impact. Jones performance seemed to fall off right after he returned from that ailment. I researched that topic, and I can find no indication that his performance should be affected by that injury once he is medically cleared to return.

    However, something else occurred during Jones absence from the collapsed lung. Howard returned to the line up. It seems likely to me that D-Mo and Jones provided excellent spacing on offense. D-Mo can easily move out beyond the arc, and while he does not take a lot of three point shots, the defense must always respect him out there on the perimeter. But because Jones is not a real threat from mid-range or beyond the arc, Howard and Jones together are somehow much less than the sum of the parts. Jones and Howard occupy the same space on the floor for the most part. It is similar, but not as extreme as the problems Asik and Howard had playing together. To see the drop off in Jones performance here are Jones stats before and after Howard returned in two small tables:

    <a href="http://imgur.com/JSV6kBP"><img src="http://i.imgur.com/JSV6kBP.jpg" title="source: imgur.com" /></a>

    The first table contains the raw numbers. The most important information there is the drop of in FG% after Howard returned. The second table contains the point and rebound totals adjusted for Jones ~18% drop in minutes after Howard made it back into the line up. The almost 30% drop in rebounds might be especially worrisome, but Howard has been averaging a huge number of rebounds lately. Jones 17% drop in points is also an issue.

    In conclusion it seems like Jones and Howard's limitations shooting from range is causing serious spacing issues on offense for the Rockets. While Jones shot a very reasonable 35% from beyond the arc in the regular season, it was on very low volume and in the playoffs he is a miserable 2-15 from three. Teams are just not going to guard him outside when he is shooting like that. Thus we can see why McHale pulled Jones from the starting line up.

    What are the Rockets going to do? The obvious remedy is to play Smith more. However, Smith is not a good shooter from range, and so playing Smith more is just band aide on the problem. Unfortunately McHale's options are few (if not nonexistent) without D-Mo. But Jones is probably not going to be traded by Morey, and I agree with that course of action. Howard in the summer of 2016 has a player option, and I believe he is likely to opt out of it, in order it to take advantage of the $23M increase in teams salary caps. The Rockets going forward after next season with D-Mo, Capela and Jones could be doing much much worse. Capela taking the place of Howard (OK that sounds r****ded, no player of this generation can actually replace Howard) with D-Mo taking all the center minutes Capela cannot play while Jones and D-Mo split the PF minutes seems workable to me. In order to remain an exceptional team with those bigs the Rockets would have to sign another all star wing. But that is what Morey is paid to do.

    I would also like to quickly comment on Jones play off performance. Here is Jones shot chart from the regular season:

    <a href="http://imgur.com/Y73gqhj"><img src="http://i.imgur.com/Y73gqhj.png" title="source: imgur.com" /></a>

    And here is his playoff shot chart:

    <a href="http://imgur.com/GZG5fhi"><img src="http://i.imgur.com/GZG5fhi.png" title="source: imgur.com" /></a>

    You can interpret it as you see fit.
     
  2. basketballholic

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  3. jtr

    jtr Contributing Member

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    I never ever said that word. However it seems to me like the playoffs are not the complete answer. I have run Jones numbers against various teams in the past two seasons and he seems to have a serious difficulty against the better power forwards in the league. Against perhaps one of the Morris brothers Jones can shine, but when his runs up against a Blake, or an LMA or a Green he just wilts? I guess I could write an article on it, but I feel sure you get my drift.
     
  4. DrNuegebauer

    DrNuegebauer Member

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    I honestly do not believe he has recovered from the knee to the ribs.

    Perhaps he is fully fit physically, but there is something about the way he is playing that has been off since then. Maybe mentally the 2 injuries in the season have got to him?
    Or perhaps he isn't fully fit physically, the ribs are still a bit sore, and it is affecting him.

    Either way, we NEED him to be at his 'pre-knee-to-the-ribs' form if we are going to win the WCF.
     
  5. DrNuegebauer

    DrNuegebauer Member

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    It could be a mental thing about the playoffs?

    But it isn't simply 'better PFs give him fits'. He had 21-9 on the Grizz, 17-12 on Aldridge; and then the knee to the ribs.

    He was 3 straight double doubles on the road before it happened. Has gone past 8 rebounds in a game just twice since then (23 games). Thanks a lot Faried!
     
  6. basketballholic

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    ...................................................yeah.......and?
     
  7. cheke64

    cheke64 Member

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    Is this his ekg?
     
  8. jtr

    jtr Contributing Member

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    And you certainly could be correct. But I spent a couple of hours pouring over the medical literature on the subject and could find no indication of any long term medical effects if he completely recovered - like did not have to have a lung removed. And it has been six weeks and 20 some odd games since he came back and I cannot imagine that he would still be hampered by that injury.
     
  9. jtr

    jtr Contributing Member

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    LOL. Perhaps his basketball EKG?
     
  10. jtr

    jtr Contributing Member

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    You certainly have a point and I looked at that. But perhaps Jones pairing with Howard is sub-optimal, and thus the decrease in performance? Jones was rocking with D-Mo for about 12 games there, and then the collapsed lung and Howard returning. I am not intelligent enough to tease the correct interpretation out of those two events. Perhaps someone here is?
     
  11. SemisolidSnake

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    BINGO! (imo)

    Jones and Howard don't really bring anything complementary to each other.

    Howard-Jones --> Neither can pass to each other. Dwight sucks up as many rebounds as he can, and Jones is a subpar rebounder for the other rebounds. Both need Harden to assist them, thus weakening Harden's offensive game. Jones plays below the rim, making him a finishing liability.

    Howard-Smith --> 4-5 P&R. Finisher-Assister. Very successful for both guys from what we've seen. Good defense.

    Capela-Smith --> Same thing.

    Smith-Jones --> No chemistry. Josh reverts to heroball mode. Team suffers.

    Jones needs to figure out what he brings to the team, because he's kind of drag on any lineup right now. If he would just dunk, he'd be sooooo much more effective.
     
  12. jtr

    jtr Contributing Member

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    And so what is your opinion of Jones last game's shots?

    <a href="http://imgur.com/BMdEIuF"><img src="http://i.imgur.com/BMdEIuF.png" title="source: imgur.com" /></a>
     
  13. daywalker02

    daywalker02 Member

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    I see what you did there to avoid the GARM clusterfk

    Jones was injured like Motiejunas. People would have been hard on Moti, not as much as Jones because they give Euros more leeway, as well had he come back.

    Anyone coming back from a major injury will have setbacks.....

    You just cannot expect them to be back to their previous level especially in the playoffs where the intensity and level of play are 10x higher

    You give them time and perhaps one offseason to work on their game.
     
  14. jtr

    jtr Contributing Member

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    Perhaps. I thought I had charted out Jones injuries (and they were devastating) and the return of Howard. I researched the long term effects of a collapsed lung. I left the final analysis up to the viewer and gave my own analysis. If you have any recommendations as to how I could be any fairer I would appreciate hearing it. Honestly all I intended in this post was to present data and my subjective opinion.
     
  15. daywalker02

    daywalker02 Member

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    All I can say that Jones was inconsistent even before his injury but he was better at managing it through... and it was regular season and much more relaxed.

    I am not sure there are stats that can show how much progress a 22 or 23 year old can make.....

    I can only give the Rox advice that we should hold onto him until he is 26...

    If he does not show any promise, keep DMo and trade for a younger or a better prospect.
     
  16. DrNuegebauer

    DrNuegebauer Member

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    Nah. He was great with Howard before the lung (I think we were 8-0 with the 2 of them starting).
    He was great next to Howard last season.

    I'm not suggeting he is actually hurt (the lung thing) - it could be a mental thing. 2 major injuries in a year, and he is more tentative? The lack of rebounding might suggest he is holding back. The numbers are strikingly different....

    Run his advanced defensive stats on the season prior to the injury, and then after it. His opponent FG% goes up after the injury - could be an indication of him not being as physical?
     
  17. saintja2

    saintja2 Contributing Member

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  18. jtr

    jtr Contributing Member

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    <a href="http://imgur.com/9ymBLij"><img src="http://i.imgur.com/9ymBLij.png" title="source: imgur.com" /></a>

    A decent stat line, but what is up with the rebounds Jones? The Rockets are not going to win this series with role player stats like that. But he did his best. The dominant Jones we saw so infrequently is only appearing on rare occasions. It is what it is.
     
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