What is Minny's number two pick worth - what would be a fair offer?

I see more a 3-team deal. Basically something like this.

Rockets trade Scola or Martin or Lowry to 3rd team.
3rd team trade one or two young player with potential to Minnesota
Rockets trade 14th pick plus other things, perhaps 23rd pick or the NY pick in 2012 or a young player
Minnesota trades #2 plus salary fillers, likely useless contracts

 

I'm keeping Kyle unless somebody makes us an offer we can't refuse. And I do agree Martin will get us the 2 in this weak draft. That said, a healthy Kanter is exactly the kind of player I would move Kevin for.

Packages with Scola are probably going to need multiple teams and would likely include a combo of 14, 23, and NY's first rounder next year.

 

I think people are overestimating the cost. Don't think of it as the #2 pick, as if the #2 in 2011 is worth the same as the #2 in a typical draft. Essentially, we're talking about trading for Irving or Williams or Kanter. Maybe I bought the 'weak draft' too much, but I think Martin by himself is already overpaying; throwing in picks on top of that or taking back bad contracts seems ridiculous.

Consider the historically bad 2000 draft. The top pick was Kenyon Martin. He's okay, but would you trade Kevin Martin for a young Kenyon Martin? Maybe straight-up if I had a positional need. I wouldn't take on a bad contract and throw in more picks just to get him.

The other worthwhile players in that draft were: Mike Miller (#5), Jamal Crawford (#8), Turkoglu (#16), Quentin Richardson (#18), Magloire (#19), Deshawn Stevenson (#23), and Michael Redd (#43). If we're staring down the barrel of an historically bad draft like this one again, than even with clairvoyant analytics, we have no business trading multiple assets for even the top guys in this draft.

Irving and Williams should be at least decent players. Kanter is a bit of a wild-card, being European, being a center, and not having recent play to judge by. Who else can you really count on to amount to anything?

 

You can't really use historical trends when trading for a top pick. Because they are too rare and unique to ever be comparable.

From the Rockets perspective, I think the key is Kanter. We're simply that desperate for a center. Morey has never had problems getting good shooting guards: Artest, Martin, Lee in just 4 years as GM. He has gotten exactly ZERO centers. So the position of premium is likely a big deal here. Of course, Morey can also be targeting the next Brandon Roy, someone no one really thought much of before the draft, but actually oozes with star potential. Either way, he would be willing to pay a lot.

From Minnesota's perspective, it really depends on how much they like the guys at the position. I honestly don't know, because I feel their scouts are a bunch of idiots. Last year, they should've traded down for a team desperate for Cousins. Instead they go with Wesley Johnson...

Kahn may be an idiot, but I just wish he'd be stupid in Rockets favor one of these days.

 

Kevin Martin + Knicks first round next year + Jordan Hill or Goran Dragic (Minny take their choice here)

Rationale for Minny: Martin gives them the off-the-ball, high efficiency, non-volume shooter 2 (as Minny needs to win more next year for Kahn to keep job), Knicks first round next year as Minny doesn't have a 1st round next year (so if Minny still doesn't win more with Martin, they've still got hope) and either Dragic as Rubio-can't-come-over insurance (Ridnour/Flynn just can't cut it) or Hill to give them a 4/5 that is a different look than Love/Pekovic/Darko (ie athletic).

Rationale for Rockets: Martin is a must sacrifice to get Kanter so McHale can work with him. The Knicks pick may not be great if they can pick up Dalmbert in FO and stay healthy (probably close to top 4 seed in the East), and Dragic as he'll probably be too expensive to retain in FO with Lowry as starting PG and expected to play 35+ minutes (and this draft being decent for back-up PGs) or Jordan Hill whose 4/5 role can be comfortably replaced by Patterson at the 4 and Kanter at the 5.

Team:
Lowry/Nolan Smith (?)
Lee/T-Will
Bud/Singleton (?)
Scola/Patterson
Kanter/Hayes/Thabeet/Yao

We will take a step backward, get into the top 10 of 2012 class, in order to take a step forward.

 

And Marshon Brooks at 23

 

Well, yes and no. I think you can rest assured that every draft will be somewhere in the talent continuum between the 2000 draft and the 1984 draft. Of course, you just need one guy -- the guy you pick -- to outperform expectations to make it all worthwhile. But, when you're talking about the market price for that pick, Kahn cannot expect to get much in return because the guys he can possibly pick up with it aren't expected to be all that great. There is no Lebron James. There isn't even a Steve Francis.

 

The voice of reason on this thread. Everyone wants the shiny new pick and the promise of a potential franchise player, however reality has shown us that the top picks in the draft usually turn out to be worse players than guys picked in the lower half of the lottery. Esp. for number 2 picks, the rate of picking the actual BPA is quite low, most number 2 picks end up being worse than a player picked below them ex. Beasley, Milicic, etc. Just this year our number 14 pick outperformed the number 2 pick by a mile.

Right now, there are 2 possible choices for the top 2 pick, Williams (tweener, might be Beasley 2.0 but with less talent), and Kanter (might lack athleticism, might have recurring knee problems). Neither of them can be considered blue chip rookies, neither of them project to be multiple all star types. Why would we give up Martin for these guys? Esp. when someone like Jeremy Tyler or Bismack Biyombo might turn out to be better players?

 

agreed.

however, moving scola for a lotto pick will be a tough sell. you won't get good value for him. no rebuilding team wants to give up a lotto pick (even in a weak draft) for an old player on a long term, high priced contract.

so we're left with kmart. coming off one of his best (if not the best) seasons of his career. good time to sell high on a guy that won't be around when the team is ready to contend again.

 

I wish someone could tell me where so many people on clutchfans got the idea that kevin martin is going to be useless in 2-4 years.

 

It could just mean that he'll walk in two years when his contract is up. There's no reason for Martin to stay in Houston if we're not a contender by then -- he's said himself he doesn't want to be the 1st option. Tick tock, tick tock..

 

Except that's not the reason people always bring up when they discuss moving martin. Almost everyone on the trade kevin martin bandwagon seems to list martins inability to contribute in a few years as a reason to move him now.

Just doesn't make any sense in my opinion. Trade him cause his value is high or because you don't believe you can win with his poor defense, but don't tell me a guy who will ONLY be 31 years old THREE YEARS from today won't be able to continue to be an efficient scorer in the league.

I realize he doesn't want to be the number 1 guy, but the way I envision this team growing, in a couple years when we are ready to contend he will be at best our 3rd best player, but still a wildly efficient veteran. If we can find our go to guy and manage to keep lowry and pat, I feel like Martin would fit perfectly in the ray allen boston role for our team.

I have said it before and will say it again, I am not totally against moving Kevin, but some people are selling him WAYYYY too short. It has to be for the right guy, and I just don't see that guy in this years draft.

 

I agree that Scola isn't ideal for a team with a high lotto pick, but that doesn't make him impossible to trade. You do a 3 way, trading Scola to a contender, who sends a younger vet to the lotto team, who sends the lotto pick to us.

 

Marshon Brooks will be long gone by the time the 23rd pick comes around.

 

Yeah, I think Scola needs to go to a contender .....whether it's direct or via a 3 way.

And KM definitely needs to go in the right deal considering he's healthy, coming off the career year, and that we have Lee waiting in the wings.

 

I just mentioned something in the college portion that everyone here should consider. People keep bringing up how great next years draft is going to be as compared to this one. Didn't Kanter dominate most of next years top picks in the Hoop Summit last year in relatively short period of time?

 

If you havent noticed by now, people dont walk out on Houston. Guys that play here love to play here and Martin is one of those guys, If we are ever going to be considered a contender in these next few years Martin will have to be on the roster. He gives us a dimension that alot of teams dont have.

All he needs is a defensive SF that can shoot the three ball. If we can acquire one of those he will be very close to an all-star and average at least 25 ppg.
His talent is remarkable, his defense improved over the season and will continue to. He has a good work ethic, a good personality, overall he is a good guy.

 

I agree that (i) Scola is probably the most likely trade bait from the Rockets perspective - Patterson waiting, Chuck really a 4, Scola older, and well paid, and (ii) a 3 way trade is likely required.

I'll leave it to DM to get creative, but looking at teams, it's hard to see something that makes a ton of sense. Oklahoma might be the best fit for Scola, but what could they give Minnesota?

Maybe Atlanta is tired of Josh Smith finally? Atlanta ends up with Beasley and Scola, Houston ends up with #2 pick, Minnesota ends up with Smith + something else?

Logically, it doesn't make sense to trade Martin for the #2 pick in this weak-ass draft. HOWEVER, if fully committed to rebuilding, then I could get on board. Because, really, it is almost beneficial then to also suck next year. Almost take a Supersonics approach. Granted, Seattle had 2 seasons of under 40 wins when finally deciding to fully rebuild... BUT, they had made it to the second round, then for whatever reason missed the playoffs twice, and fully committed to rebuilding, and traded Ray Allen for the 5th pick. Given how little of a dent DM has made in the assets->superstar strategy, this might make sense.

I'd prefer to trade Scola to get there, because as noted, Martin is young, efficient and a seemingly better piece to keep, but if it was Martin or bust, then I'd be okay with a full rebuild. Sure, you'd be getting rid of a great piece, taking a huge risk, but the one area where DM has seemed to be the best has been the draft. He's had some misses (Dorsey, international picks, Thabeet!!), but for the most part his picks, or people he was confirmed to be targeting have been very solid.

If trading KM for the #2 pick meant a full commitment to rebuilding, where you'd have this years #2, #14, #23... next years Rockets lotto pick, NYKnicks decent pick in a deep draft, and still have an asset like Scola to move at the deadline for more young talent and picks, then I'm on board.

 

I understand that guys like playing in Houston. I wasn't insinuating that we were Cleveland 2.0. My comment had nothing to do with Martin's game or personality; it was more about the talent on this roster. If the Rockets can't upgrade their roster into a contender in two years, I don't see many reasons for Martin to stay with the team. If I'm KM, 30 years old and a free agent, I'm looking for the team that gives me the best chance to go deep in the playoffs, not a fringe 8th seed team.

If the Rockets are able to bring in a player or two who is better than Martin, then I'm sure he'd be inclined to stay. So far, they've failed on that. If they still can't land one or two of those type of guys in the next two years, I don't know if Martin will want to stay.

 

We would be complete idiots to make a deal like that. Sounds like a deal the Clippers would make.