The stock market is off to a horrible start this year. . How much further can it go down? Is there anything that is going up? Confused.
Not likely to go up much in the near term, the economical outlook is not great at the moment. Not sure where is the bottom.
Commodities. Emerging markets, though people think a bubble might be developing here. Treasuries will be safe. Stock market will probably go down until p/e ratios with normal corporate profits return. Corporate profits were abnormally high these past several years, so ignore people who say stocks are cheap according to p/e ratios. US stocks are a place to avoid in my opinion. Consumers and banks are saddled with debt and there is no easy way out.
I wish less people would say that. But I really wish I could invest in commodities through my 401(k).
correction. i never got comfortable with 13000+, in fact I think I called it a few weeks about that we would be under that soon(pats self on back). I seethings hopping around from 12300-12800 for the next few weeks.
Everyone knows to buy low and sell high. The sheep mentality forces us to do the opposite. This is a great time to buy real estate, but everyone is avoiding it like the plague.
well i just said it was a good time to be "in" commodities.... probably should've jumped onthat bandwagon 6-8 months ago at least. real estate, however, is looking decent at this point. just gotta figure out if we're pretty much at the bottom or if there's more fallout coming....
bad time to rush into real estate. wait because it is not going to be a V bottom. it will be more like a U bottom. further rates will be coming down more so no reason to jump in head first.
I think at least part of the downturn has been Obama's rise in the media. The markets are afraid that America might commit economic suicide by electing him.
well glynch it is a TON of things. it is VERY VERY ugly out there. it took me awhile to figure things out today. basically, it is a combination of recession fears (which are looking very likely) and the realization that the american consumer is over extended. retail sales came in below expectations whic wasn't good. luckily PPI came in pretty much in line which helped ease some inflation fears. the market would have been obliterated if PPI came in high showing prices were getting too hot. pretty much every retailer that has report or guided recently has been to the downside. also you combine that with what american express said when they saw a slow down in spending and troubles with payments that came out of nowhere in december. then today after hour you had intel confirming what people were worried about and they reported a bad quarter. intel had sold off about 15% in the weeks prior to earnings on worries of slowing orders and then today after they reported they are down another 14+% in the after hours trading. also, citigroup had bad earnings as well today. everyone was expecting bad from them but it was still worse than bad. they basically lost an extra $4 billion more than expected. there is still a lot of uncertainty about their future too. then you combine all that with persisting housing troubles, weak dollar, skyrocketing commodity prices, massive losses in the banking industry, and probably a couple other things i am forgetting and you have some very bad fundamental problems. that being said i am still scouring the market looking for value buys on the retailer/restuarant side and anything that may have been raped too hard with the recession fears. i am not buying now because things look like they are going to get worse before they get better but i want to have some good companies lined up that i might be able to get into below book and cash value. also, tomorrow we have CPI, JP Morgan earnings, and Wells Fargo earnings.
notes from briefing.com about the overseas trading...the market is definitely spooked bad by the U.S. 06:27 Europe shares drop as US worries hit banks, techs European shares fell on Wednesday as growing fear of a U.S. recession hit banks, while tech stocks recoiled after a grim outlook from Intel and a disappointing update from Dutch group ASML. By 0914 GMT, the FTSEurofirst 300 index of top European shares was down 1.05% at 1,380.69 points, having earlier hit its lowest level since September 2006 at 1,376.35, and is now showing a loss of nearly 9% for the year... Around Europe, London's FTSE 100 index fell 1.3%, while Frankfurt's DAX dropped 1% and Paris' CAC 40 lost 1.1%. (Reuters) 06:27 Asian stock markets plunge; Sensex ends down 380pts Asian markets plunged Wednesday on growing speculation the U.S. economy -a vital export market- is sliding into a recession that could lead to a global slowdown. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng index sank 5.4% -its biggest percentage drop since the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks- to 24,450.85. Tokyo's Nikkei 225 index fell 3.4% to 13,504.51 points, its lowest in more than two years. Markets in Australia, China, India, South Korea, New Zealand and the Philippines also dropped sharply on uncertainty about the U.S. economic outlook and the full extent of the subprime mortgage crisis. ...Mirroring the weak trend in global markets, the Sensex opened with a huge negative gap of 171 points at 20,080. Unabated selling saw the index drift deeper into red as the day progressed. The index tumbled to a low of 19,513 - down 738 points from the previous close - in late noon deals. Aggressive buying at lower levels saw the index stage a significant recovery, and finally settle with a loss of 383 points at 19,868. (Thomson, Business Standard)
I am considering moving money into bonds for a few years until things settle out. Any thoughts? I'll keep the 401k mixed, but move the IRAs etc. into something a tad more stable.
