Not sure I understand your point. There will always be equal numbers of offensive and defensive possessions. That's not what we are talking about. The point is that offense is given more advantages. Every rule gives advantage to some kind of players and disadvantage to some other players. The 3pt line gives advantage to good 3pt shooters over 2pt shooters. Therefore it is more advantageous to have 3pt shooters than 2pt shooters. If the rules let them play more physical, then it is more advantageous to have stronger players; etc. etc. If the rules give more advantages to offense than to defense, then it is better to have good offensive skills than good defensive skills. I think it is just commonsense logic. The issue is not just shooting. It is switchable defense. Gobert is a great defensive anchor but he became a liability in playoffs when teams hunted him with quick perimeter players. It would have been okay if Gobert was a plus on offense, but he was not. So it's the combination of the defensive unswitchability and offensive limitation that makes the traditional defensive big men extinct. Garuba will be fine on offense if he can pass and shoot, or pass and handle (Draymond), or pass and low post score (Siakem), or handle and score (Giannis). (McGee and Thompson aren't really a key player for their team to be in this conversation.) At this point, the only useful skill Garuba has on offense is passing. He doesn't have Draymond's handles to get to the basket or run a fast break. The most promising for him, I think, is shooting. I hope he will develop a reliable shot. Anyway, my disappointment with Garuba is not so much about his skills but his attitude. He pouted when he didn't get to play and when he got injured, he did not keep himself physically fit. I hope he will mature and work his butt off to make the rotation.
The point is that any advantage offense is given comes with a an exactly equal and inverse corresponding defensive possession for the other team. The league is more offensive is a marketing campaign that has no truth in statistics. It's just not sexy to say we're playing more defense too. It's only better to have offensive skills over defensive skills in a final possession that can win a game with a basket. So it's like a hair, doesn't matter on over 99% of possessions. Otherwise it is and has always been 50-50. One team scores and the other defends all game long. You can prevent 2 to 4 points or score 1 to 4 points. The league increasing the number of possessions and reducing fouls/aggressiveness increased the number of points scored on a possession and the amount of defense played in a game. There was no point in time where offense started to exist without defense, except in the media. On Gobert, not sure why we're talking about him. That's a failed experiment and Garuba is ten times the perimeter defender Gobert is. That's a meteoric difference in potential. Siakam is not in these guys' league defensively (in Garuba's case we're talking hypothetical of course, hasn't proven anything yet). I listed out the last 7 champions and they all found ways to get around having players who can't shoot or create. That's it that's all that matters, it is possible. The model Garuba would follow is Draymond-like defense and offense with lesser passing and at least slightly better shooting. That's worth $20m+ per year, which is an elite role player. Trust me on this, he's not your average joe hard working defender. He is one of those highly cerebral players. We will have semi-viral clips of Garuba shutting down perimeter players this season, I guarantee it if he earns a rotation spot. Like you, I'm concerned about his choices and mental fortitude more than anything.
Based on what are you saying that it has no truth in statistics? The league average TS% rose from 52% in 2002 to 57% in 2022--a whopping 5% points improvement. League median ORtg rose from 105 in 2002 to 114 in 2022--a whopping 9 points improvement. In 2002, the best offensive team had an 114 ORtg which would rank them 13th in 2022. (ORtg has nothing to do with pace or number of possessions.) Offense clearly beats out defense in the past 20 years, by a lot. One reason is the rise of analytics. Teams began to understand how to score more efficiently on offense. Another reason is the change of rules, or the interpretation of the rules. It gives perimeter offensive players more space and restricts what defensive players can do. (The recent attempts to curb the so-called "creating contact" by offensive players a.k.a. "fishing for fouls" may reverse the trend a little bit, but we'll see.) Again, it has nothing to do with possessions. Offense being given more helps in trumping defense is a fact in the last 2 decades or so. Think of the top players in the past 5 years: Jokic, Embiid, LeBron, Giannis, Harden, Curry, Durant (in no particular order). Only LeBron and Giannis (maybe Durant) are known to be 2-way players. All the others are considered cream of the crop because of their offensive dominance.
Name one player under 6'10 that can't shoot and is a role player on a championship team. Draymond Green, the defensive mvp and triple double machine, is not a role player.
Draymond is far from a triple double machine. Averaged 7-7-7 last season and for his career averages 8-6-5. Has NEVER averaged double digit boards OR assists in entire 12 year career. And only has 4 seasons averaging double digit points and that was during heyday of GSW dynasty.
See we won't come to an agreement here because: 1) Draymond is a role player to me. I saw what he looks like on a regular squad vs on a stacked team. His defense made 0 difference, his offense flatllined. Draymond would look even more horrible than he did his first two seasons had he played them on the 20/21 Rockets squad in my opinion. 2) It still doesn't even matter. The standard you're setting is so narrow that you are making it easy for a first timer to emerge. It's not statistically unlikely that someone will be the first to do something with a 1 inch height disadvantage.
I really think you're misunderstanding the rules. The rise in TS% does not mean there are more offensive possessions. It just means all teams, the one scoring and the one defending, increased their offensive efficiency and look prettier on the court. If there was ever an additional offensive possessions born out of the rules, then an additional defensive possession is added. Defense never reduced in importance. Just both teams were making more of their shots. What you're explaining to me is that offense became more efficient. You're making an illogical jump to: that means offense became more important than defense. No, absolutely not it did not. They just created more possessions, thus more offense, thus more offensive highlights so that the media is happy. There are also more defensive highlights than ever before, but not one is watching or talking about it. The formula remains identical: there are almost exactly as many offensive as defensive possessions and you can impact the game by scoring or denying points. Maybe someone else can explain this better to you, this is my best. Have a look and see if you can now win without being a top 10 defense. There's still only 1 team in the past 30 years that did it (Kobe/Shaq Lakers 3rd title) and they were elite once the playoffs rolled around. If what you're saying is true, this formula wouldn't be holding up.
All this crying in here while Destiny is doing this against the team everyone thought was going to win EuroBasket. shame on yall. Destiny is a support player yall want him to be Kevin Durant.
lol silas and stone refused to play this guy who is a born winner! If i am garuba i am asking to be traded to a decent basketball club to play basketball...
I am sorry. I really think it's you that is misunderstanding, and I don't know how to get through. You KEEP talking about possessions when it has nothing to do with my point. The league on the whole becoming much more efficient in offense means that offense is getting much easier in beating defense, or conversely, defense is having a much harder time stopping offense from scoring. It has nothing to do with number of possessions. And it is not just a marketing gimmick. It is real with obvious statistical evidence. (Yes, the fact that they do a lot of things to help the offense is a marketing ploy.) And I am not saying that defense is not important for winning. Needing a top 10 defense (and offense for that matter) does not show anything about the trend. It just shows that you need to be better than most other teams to win. Kind of like saying water is wet. What I am saying is that it is more important for individual players to possess offensive skills than defensive skills because defensive skills are being handcuffed much more than offensive skills in today's NBA. Anyway, I have a feeling that we are talking about apples and oranges. One thing we agree on Garuba is that his mentality needs to be better.
Ever since DD has given up on Garuba (and suggested signing Whiteside or giving a chance to WCS, two of the most brain-dead NBA players), Garuba has stepped up and been Spain's best player. Thanks, DD!
