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What if the season is over?

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by buzz1701, Apr 3, 2020.

  1. The Cat

    The Cat Contributing Member

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    Oddly enough, I'm optimistic there's a chance it can happen specifically because of my pessimism about the virus. What I mean by that: Barring a medical miracle, you're probably looking at late 2021 or early 2022 by the time there's a vaccine. That's the next time there will truly be "normalcy."

    So, if there's no way (even in empty arenas) to make sports happen with the virus out there... it's not just a matter of punting on the 2020 NBA playoffs and back to normal for 2020-21, as I've seen many suggest. The punishment is potentially much more significant. You could be looking at no sports until as much as two years from now. The financial ramifications of that would be enormous.

    That's why I think they'll find a way, and if you're going to do it, you might as well do it sooner rather than later. The logistics of a "bubble" will be very hard, absolutely, but it's worth it if the alternative is not playing or making money for years. Anyway, we'll see. Certainly not a lock that it happens, and I hope I'm wrong and that there's a medical breakthrough. Fingers crossed.

    (I get the vibe that a lot of people read articles about the logistics hurdles of bubbles and say "meh, that's too hard, just scrap this season and come back in a few months." When in reality, you're probably going to have to figure it out at some point if you want sports prior to a vaccine.)
     
  2. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

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    Its more likely by then they have a medication that combats the symptoms better. A tamiflu-like medication that will significantly decrease the death rate.

    There's also enough people who will have immunity by then who will not be at risk of death.

    Its highly unlikely they can get back to playing sports now while the risk of asymptomatic carriers infecting others is present without any viable treatment for the symptoms.
     
  3. The Cat

    The Cat Contributing Member

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    That will probably be countered by increased spread in the winter due to seasonality factors, though. But yes, potentially by summer 2021 at the latest, that could provide some relief.
     
  4. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

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    There is a much higher likelihood that more is known about factors that act to accelerate the severity of the virus in younger/healthier pts... and possible treatments to mitigate that.

    If you find that, and those same treatments are applicable to more higher risk patients, you can get back to a state of normalcy with the same relative concern that everybody has on a year-to-year basis with the flu.

    There really isn't a "bubble" phenomenon if they decide not to play the rest of this season. And unlike baseball, at least teams got more than 60% of expected revenues in leagues that can survive... both via relevance and financially... to take the rest of the year off.
     
  5. The Cat

    The Cat Contributing Member

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    The flu would be a much greater concern if there wasn't a shot/vaccine, and treatments were the only route. Furthermore, I have a tough time believing that we won't have significant progress on treatments by July, but that we would within a few months of that. If we're still struggling to understand those factors by July, I'm pessimistic that it gets figured out shortly afterward.

    I also think it's a mistake to separate MLB and NBA... NBA owners and players aren't going to be happy if MLB is raking in TV revenues from playing in empty ballparks during the same time that the NBA could have been holding the playoffs. Given their willingness to play into September, I really don't see a scenario where they cancel, but MLB plays and football goes on as per normal.

    It's certainly possible that they all get postponed/cancelled, but IMO, given the economic consequences of all that, it's also plausible that by July, we're more willing to talk about "bubble" alternatives. If one sport does it, others will try and follow.
     
  6. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

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    First of all, tv rights fees have already been paid. It’s the networks that will be “raking in the revenues” of games get on tv, as I expect their ad rates will be much higher than normal... that being said, a lot of normal advertisers (movie studios, car companies, drug companies) aren’t really in a position to splurge at this point. NBA teams have already had more than half a season. If baseball or football gets a portion of that, there’s still going to be a huge revenue loss.

    secondly, the potential treatments are not what takes time... it’s the trials and testing for side effects or ensuring that the benefit is real. That can happen within months... more so if labs pool resources and share data to all focus on this one thing.

    I also don’t see much optimism that all leagues get back. The main concern with football is the sheer numbers of players/staff on each team each week... and the need for critical medical services on call for those games.
     
  7. The Cat

    The Cat Contributing Member

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    They have to give some of the TV money back if they don't hit certain numbers of games.

    And yes, I completely understand trials and testing, but that tends to be in the 12-18 month range from all I've read. Perhaps it can be expedited if everyone pools resources, but if that's possible, I don't know why progress by July isn't realistic.
     
  8. Deckard

    Deckard Blade Runner
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    @The Cat, I’m not too interested in what baseball does. It’s not that I don’t care about baseball, particularly the Astros. I went to games with my dad when the Dome was a hole in the ground, and golly, they were in the NL. It’s just that in terms of pulling it off, the NBA is vastly different. That’s obvious. Small venue in comparison, with far fewer players, so much more control over keeping them virus free. Easier to deal with the empty venues. Lots of reasons. Number one for me is that I care more about the Rockets. I would focus on the NBA. Baseball can do whatever they can do, and it shouldn’t impact what the NBA does, in my humble opinion.

    I’ll also add that being high risk, my significant other and I, we’ve been in self-isolation for a month now. In other words, we took this seriously a while back, and it would be nice to watch something other than idiotic briefings, depressing news, Netflix, Amazon Prime, several other streaming and premium sources, and the crap on the channels with commercials. It’s getting boring as hell. I need my Rockets.
     
    #48 Deckard, Apr 5, 2020
    Last edited: Apr 5, 2020
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  9. The Cat

    The Cat Contributing Member

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    I just think they're more connected than you might think, because it's going to come down to a broader societal debate about whether games without fans are a viable path forward in America (for a number of reasons). Not arguing that that's how it should be, just that I think that's how it's going to play out. We'll see.
     
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  10. BigBum

    BigBum Member

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    cancelled!
    House and McLemore are not playable in the playoffs. Morey need to trade or sign good players offseason.
     
  11. Smacktle

    Smacktle Contributing Member

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    The economy is what will drive sports teams. Take the Rockets for instance. I held my season ticket money back to see if I had a job in the next 2 months. Now I'm not sure if I would buy the tickets at all because the price keeps going up and the quality of the team play is suspect. Maybe if they give me a better price.

    IMO, Harden Westbrook and all these star players are going to have to take a pay cut and the owners are going to have to lower ticket prices to bring all the fans back. Just the math of it.
     
  12. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

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    Yes, rebates will be expected... but these leagues can and will survive without this season. Even with partial seasons with empty stadiums, they’re not going to get back all of what was lost... and the risks of re-infection and further antagonizing an injured society make it a very high risk gamble.

    As far as treatments go... vaccines take 12-18 months. Developing/honing a treatment strategy that saves the symptomatic does not. I would say signs point to games next year regardless, but knowing what works/doesn’t work will be a huge advantage in that favor as well.
     
  13. The Cat

    The Cat Contributing Member

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    Oh, if that’s how society at large views it, you’ll be absolutely right. They wouldn’t do it. My suspicion is that there will probably be a debate about that once the initial wave subsides some. My hunch is that fan-less games (at least with rosters as small as the NBA) become seen as an acceptable compromise, given the competing interests. But we’re still several steps away from that, so we’ll see how the next few weeks play out. Most of our discussion is based on hypotheticals, anyway, so we can pick things up then.
     
  14. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

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    Agreed. Lets also see how the other country's that are ahead of us fare when their leagues start to go back. I know the pessimism for the NBA (and all leagues) ramped up when China had to shut down again.

    By no means should the US lead the charge and force the issue when it comes to pro sports. If the virus handling policies have shown us anything its that there is absolutely zero evidence to suggest that if it doesn't work somewhere else... it would still work here... because 'Murica!
     
  15. kingkingston

    kingkingston Member

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    Would be very disappointing. It is like every year something goes against us in stopping us from having a great shot at the title
     
  16. mfastx

    mfastx Member

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    Big bummer to miss playoffs. This was the first playoffs (for non Rockets watching purposes) that I was excited for in years.

    Rockets themselves weren't gonna do **** this year, so not too bummed about that.
     
  17. The Cat

    The Cat Contributing Member

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    Agreed, though I think a big part of the problem in China and Japan's attempts was overlooking the March/April explosion in cases in nearly every other major economy in the world. We're way too interconnected for that not to lead to imported cases, which understandably makes decision makers skittish.

    What I hope happens is China tries again in May, when/if the cases here and in most other major economies are on the decline. That would give them a more realistic chance. And then, of course, we can gauge how it goes.
     
  18. htwnbandit

    htwnbandit Member

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    The pessimism on this board kills me. I think they could start it back up in July with an empty gym and finish around late September with maybe quarter-capacity crowds and start another shortened season for 2021 in December.
     
  19. buzz1701

    buzz1701 Contributing Member

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    So do you think a shortened season this year and some bogus playoff tournament and then a shortened season next year too is better than just skipping this year and hope next season goes according to plan?

    I'm not being a smart ass I am just asking which do we think is better?
     
  20. daywalker02

    daywalker02 Easter Egg Hunter - Tell me why? نحن عائلة

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    If they can guarantee the safety of the players, more power to them.
     

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