Well in retrospect a lot of moneyball is common sense. If a guy scores 20 pts on 30% shooting, but there's another guy who scores 12 pts on 40% shooting and can be had for 10 million less, wouldn't it make sense to get player B? Moneyball is just euphism for using advanced statistical analysis to correctly gauge players' value. If you knew the real value of players and can reasonably project their future performance then a lot of the decisions would be common sense ones. Also you seem to imply that once you get superstars that immediately means you're not using moneyball anymore. The way Brooks is progressing it looks like he'll be a star in this league before long, does that mean DM suddenly abandoned Moneyball when he drafted him? C'mon now, be reasonable. Who the hell would employ a strategy that would result in you bypassing superstars in favor of roleplayers, especially when both could be had for the same price?
How long has he been a GM? Seriously, just look at the assets and contract situations this tema has now as compared to when he took over. Heck, compare the assets this team has now as compared to before the last draft. The rate at which Morey turns lumps of coal into diamonds is startling.
The video is "What Geeks Don't Get: The Limits of Moneyball" with guest speakers Mark Cuban (NBA), Jonathan Kraft (NFL), Daryl Morey (NBA), Bill Polian (NFL), Bill Simmons (columnist), Michael Lewis (author). There isnt ANY MLB representative besides Lewis who wrote the Moneyball book about moneyball in the MLB. Its 2 things: 1) I was entertained by the witty banter and jabs poking fun at each other, honestly. Just look at the name of it, they didnt approach it as the end all/be all method. It was simply saying okay we got these stats, here's how we already do things, whats next? 2) It was interesting with the men that run teams, seeing their approach and mindset in how they operate things. I'm NOT saying its a must-watch. Just its a decent video that I appreciate for surprisingly not wasting my time. . The odd thing is Mark Cuban seems MORE moneyball enthusiast than even Daryl Morey who we attribute as moneyball king, and who RUNS the conference. Morey even seemed to cast doubt on some of the tactics they use lol. The NFL guys basically say what you did, that football has always been about advanced stats and techniques for decades. Just that teams have been reluctant to apply them, and its just now a handful are even trying. Many times NFL guys said the advanced stats are "useless" in certain situations. That it cant measure things like different coverage schemes used in certain downs and distances, and other tactics used every down in the NFL because NFL isnt near the individually measurable sport like baseball and football. The NFL guys are more "any advantage to winning" rather than trying to promote the new wave of stats. They dont even call it moneyball, they just consider it more things that can help the game. To me the NFL guys were most interesting because they showed some elements of the administrative side you dont normally get to see. We know enough about Cuban, Morey and Simmons already.
No - I am saying that in MoneyBall terms you'd never go out and sign a free agent superstar because they'll be overpriced. That's the flaw of the whole concept - and stat analysis in general. MoneyBall would undervalue Michael Jordan, because there's no statistical analysis that says he is worth 25 million a year. But we all know he was when the Bulls paid him that. By MoneyBall logic, it would be foolish to go out and get MJ. That's why I think it doesn't work. I mean, people say the Red Sox are a MoneyBall champion? C'mon, how many super stars did they pay for??? Far more than one. So how can they be a MoneyBall team if they are overpaying on stats. Superstars always get overpaid, it because their pay isn't just for the stats they put up, but for the tickets and ratings they pull in. Yes, you probably over pay when you buy a .280 40 homer run guy but done wisely it can still make you a better team then some guy who hits .350 but they are all singles. as for your example, you can't even argue that a guy shooting 30% and scoring 20 is less valuable than a 40% guy scoring 12. Things like EFG% has to be taken into account, as well a host of skills, talents and abilities and what a team needs or has an abundance of. And there are other factors - like work ethic, chemistry issues, and things that don't necessarily show up in stats but do show up in playoff victories.
So you think Morey, a clear moneyball supporter, wouldn't find a way to get LeBron here if he wanted to come? Its a marriage of the two that creates success, and Morey has always said that.
