It's a joke to even mention anything regarding Lin's marketing value. Before the season started and right after we signed Howard, Lin had been pulled from most of the promo stuff, he was later added back to some of it when the trade rumors settled down but never being as a feature players - maybe like a 4th or 5th option. He was almost NEVER involved in any local Asian communities activities, unlike Yao, the local Chinese/Asian communities never really embraced him like the same to Yao. BTW, when was the last time you saw the Volvo commercial featured Lin? A year ago?
At the most, Lin's production warrants 3.5-4 millie a year. The revenue he brings in is a different story, but purely from his skillset and development, 5 million is a lot.
As a package he is worth the 7-8 mil per year for a lot of teams that are rebuilding and require a PG to run there offense which was Morey's initial intention . Harden was an unexpected pleasant surprise which altered that. Is he worth that money for the current Rockets team coming off from the bench? Maybe. Have to see what extra $ value Lin has pulled in for the Rockets. He has also been a great insurance policy for 2 positions and has been filling in extremely well when Harden is injured. Also provides a scoring punch from the bench. Will Rockets pay that amount when his 3rd year contract finishes? Probably not unless Lin goes berzerk in the playoffs and next season.
you can't discredit all the games where he played a MAJOR role in winning just this season, which is what a lot of his detractors do. He's won more for you than lost. we can list all his performances from day one when kimba was crushing the starter. in order, BObcats Dallasx2 Utah x2 Toronto NY Denver Minnyx2 Spursx2 Boston NO LA Washx2 Milwaukee Portlandx2
$3-4M gets you Raymond Felton. You are GROSSLY underestimating the value of a starting PG in Free Agency. You may not think he's WORTH that much, but that's the market value. Don't confuse your own perception of value with Market Value, in other words what Teams will actually pay for a player. By definition, a player is worth what the market will bear. Any other assessment is just complaining about the price of gas. In Today's NBA, Lin is worth substantially more than $4M/year in free agency.
Hmmm - you might be right here, so I will revise my estimate due to your well reasoned post to about $6m a year. DD
In a vacuum, marketing and BUSINESS OPPORTUNITIES IN THE FAR EAST ASIDE, I agree with the 3-4/yr ......as a career back up.
In terms of salary his worth is around $7-$8 million in a starting role. He is better than guys like Jeff Teague, Brandon Jennings, and George Hill. Those guys are all in the $8 million range. However, when you look at worth you have to consider timing. Case in point: Jose Calderon - he's on par with Jennings, Hill, Teague (in my opinion probably a little better) and he got a contract starting at $6.7 million last off season. If Lin were a free agent this season, I suspect he'd have a difficult time getting $5 million per season because of the plethora of point guards that are already locked up on contracts now. There simply isn't much of a market for starting point guards right now. After next season?? Who knows? But one thing to watch for this off season is what happens to Kyle Lowry. Lowry is a better player. And he's facing a very limited, closed market. Perhaps Miami throws the MLE at him????? Perhaps Toronto gives him Calderon money??? Maybe Orlando gives Lowry the customary 3/24 (I doubt it.). Perhaps Philly goes after him or he goes after Philly as his home town team and they get him for some contract that is less than $8 million but more than $5 million. But frankly, I don't see that one happening. Not with MCW there and not with Philly at this stage of a rebuild. So, in terms of salary probably somewhere between $5 million and $7 million per season for Lin. Now, what does that mean. What it means is to trade Lin, we're going to have to include maximum cash plus send out draft picks plus advance his salary (if possible) so that the team he goes to get a benefit for trading him and can then possibly flip him at the trade deadline to a contender for dead salary and more draft picks.
Jarrett Jack - 6.3 mil/year Jose Calderon - 7.1 mil/year Lin - 8.3 mil/year Lin as a backup is probably worth around Jarrett Jack's money, as a starter should be at least Jose Calderon. Overpaid? Maybe a little, but not that much. You guys have no idea how much PGs get paid in this league.
that has nothing to do with what I said. I was replying to the comment about his market worth to Les and other owners, and those worth came 99% from Linsanity, but that was 2 years ago, and casuals are slowing forgeting about it
You can try to justify his contract, but Jeremy Lin has not been all that good with the rockets and you can't justify his salary on his playing ability. He is 36th in PER this year, and was 32nd last year. He is like 25th in win shares for PG behind such super stars as Ricky Rubio and patty mills. Patty Mills is making a million bucks. I am think he is untradeable except for his marketing value.
PER is the WORST measurement for valuing players as it's heavily tilted towards scoring (especially inefficient scoring). It also rises and drops dramatically depending on usage and player role. For example, Rudy Gay has a PER of 19.8 while shooting 48% and 30% from the 3 point line. That's 4 points higher than Parsons or TJones. Would YOU want Rudy Gay over Parsons or TJones? If Lin was a primary scoring option his PER goes up dramatically. If he's 3rd option on the bench, his PER goes down dramatically. According to PER, Robert Covington has the 3rd highest PER on the team, ahead of TJones AND Chandler Parsons. And Win Shares is of extremely limited value when comparing across teams due to differing systems, roles and line ups. It *can* be useful if you want to compare players on the SAME team playing the SAME role in similar line ups in terms of determining minutes allocation. However as soon as you try to compare players playing different roles (like 3D vs Rebounding) it starts to break down. For example, Derek Fisher has a higher Win Share/48 than Patrick Beverley. Would you take Fisher over Beverley? Do you think they're even in the same ballpark as of today?
Really kind of depends. He is a bit of a one trick pony. He offers some decent pick and roll play, but is below average or average everywhere else. To a bad team like the Bucks or Pistons, with crummy guards, he might be worth 6 or 7 million dollars to start and play big minutes "running the offense". For any good/contending team, they will be looking for better options at both the starting and back up positions. He might be a good stop gap for them @ 3-5 million, but like 2 years at most. He is basically un-tradeable right now unless we find some sort of lucky situation where some non basketball skills item drives the trade.
