First, there is no way you could get Howard, Smith and Gay underneath the cap with Lin and Asik contracts. Next, what might be necessary to get Howard could put us two years out of playoff contention after he leaves. I'd rather we start the rebuild now, then get a crappy contract along with lose our external draft picks that could be used to get players in the draft or traded sometime next year for a player we can retain. Abandon this year and actually build a foundation where we can build upon.
I'm in the first camp here: let the youngster grow. I believe this is the correct decision because we are living in an age of superteams of Miami, Boston, LA, even OKC. The window of winning a championship is unlikely to open for other teams for at least another 3-4 years, if not longer. For me, it'd be just as frustrating to obtain an All-Star, yet be just another NY Knicks of today or even NY Knicks of the Ewing era. Both are and were great teams, but the Knicks of today are at best no better than 6th or 7th best in the league and the Ewing-era Knicks were nothing but a major case of blue balls around MJ. If we consider today's Chicago Bulls who have a franchise PG and MVP in Derrick Rose and are probably 2-3 years more developed than the Rockets with complementary pieces, even they are considering tanking to grab more assets through the draft simply because of the competition at the top. That in itself is a scary thought, but it most certainly points to the fact that a "win now" mentality on our part is extremely foolish. Our best bet is to a) find talent through the draft, b) develop the players, and c) eventually trade good redundant pieces fits for better complementary pieces. Most of all, have a vision and believe in it. And for that, I'm willing to place my trust in Morey and Les.
Unfair question/poll. You do not state the fact that Howard's agent had repeatedly said Howard will not sign here. You guys saying he will not drop the extra year because of money are just doing the same thing as the guys wanting to keep the rookies hoping they will become studs. You are hoping he doesn't want to lose money and resigns here. Or another scenario hoping he will agree to a SnT in which case we just traded massive amounts of picks and potential players for a couple late 20's 1st round ricks (ie.. James).
Which is more likely Since Lin is only 23, I expect him to improve upon his top 40 PER and top 40 adjusted +/- from last year. If Howard comes here, Lin will average 20 and 10 and Houston will win about 50 games. At that point, Howard will realize that Houston has the core and cap space to be a contender, AND can pay him more money. He'll stay here. This scenarios is about 10 times more likely to lead to contention than banking on mid 1st round picks to grow into contention. These are not OKC picks.
I think the risk vs. reward on Howard is too great, on the risk side. Since he's publically stated he'll be testing the FA market after this upcoming season. I definitely like the Rockets picks, and losing all the assets for a 1 year rental isn't worth it.
