I thought about that and it is a very valid point. Certainly every GM in the league wants the oppertunity to screw up their own draft with out some other GM picking the player they want a pick or two ahead of them. Having said that some all-stars are going to slip through the cracks. The 2003 draft is the best example of the GM's at the begginning of the draft not making a mistake and not leaving talent for teams later in the draft. Lebron, Carmelo, Dwayne, Bosch and Kaman all went in the 1st six picks. Only David West slipped threw the cracks. Having said that, the historical data takes into account the likely hood that all-star players will slip out of the top 10 picks and into that 11 - 25 range. As scouts become better, teams become better in the draft that number may change. Your point is solid though.
So basically we don't need a superstar, we can get by with one hall of famer and a starting lineup of all stars, or 4 all stars and eek out a title if the really good teams all have an off year at the same time.
That kind of like saying you can't predict a players future free throw percentage from his past percentage because he'll have the opportunity to make all his future free throws.
Don't let the anomaly that is the 2004 Pistons skew your viewpoint on what it takes to win a championship. EVERY Championship team needs/has a franchise player on it. As proof we'll look at the last 25 years (to capture both Piston eras) of NBA Champions and their franchise player(s). 2011-12 Miami Heat - LeBron James, D.Wade 2010-11 Dallas Mavericks - Dirk Nowitzki 2009-10 Los Angeles Lakers - Kobe Bryant 2008-09 Los Angeles Lakers - Kobe Bryant 2007-08 Boston Celtics - Paul Pierce, KG 2006-07 San Antonio Spurs - Tim Duncan, Tony Parker,Manu 2005-06 Miami Heat - Dwyane Wade, Shaq 2004-05 San Antonio Spurs - Tim Duncan, Tony Parker 2003-04 Detroit Pistons - Ben Wallace (4x D.P.O.Y. is a franchise player) 2002-03 San Antonio Spurs - Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Manu 2001-02 Los Angeles Lakers - Shaquille O'Neal, Kobe Bryant 2000-01 Los Angeles Lakers - Shaquille O'Neal, Kobe Bryant 1999-00 Los Angeles Lakers - Shaquille O'Neal, Kobe Bryant 1998-99 San Antonio Spurs - Tim Duncan, David Robinson 1997-98 Chicago Bulls - Michael Jordan, Pippen, Rodman (arguably yes I know, but Pippen and Rodman weren't your avg All-Star Players) 1996-97 Chicago Bulls - Michael Jordan, Pippen, Rodman (arguably yes I know, but Pippen and Rodman weren't your avg All-Star Players) 1995-96 Chicago Bulls - Michael Jordan, Pippen, Rodman(arguably yes I know, but Pippen and Rodman weren't your avg All-Star Players) 1994-95 Houston Rockets - Hakeem Olajuwon 1993-94 Houston Rockets - Hakeem Olajuwon 1992-93 Chicago Bulls - Michael Jordan, Pippen (see above^^^) 1991-92 Chicago Bulls - Michael Jordan, Pippen (see above^^^) 1990-91 Chicago Bulls - Michael Jordan, Pippen (see above^^^) 1989-90 Detroit Pistons - Isiah Thomas (You're defeating the entire point of the thread when you say, "Besides Isiah Thomas") 1988-89 Detroit Pistons - Isiah Thomas (You're defeating the entire point of the thread when you say, "Besides Isiah Thomas") 1987-88 Los Angeles Lakers - Magic Johnson, Kareem, James Worthy 1986-87 Los Angeles Lakers - Magic Johnson, Kareem, James Worthy
"2003-04 Detroit Pistons - Ben Wallace (4x D.P.O.Y. is a franchise player)" You're defeating your point when you say Ben Wallace. The whole point of the argument is can the Rockets win a championship without a superstar (a top 10 player). Wallace was a great player for a while. He was an all-star. But calling him a franchise player is a stretch. When I think of franchise players, I think of Jordan, Hakeem, the mailman, Lebron, Shaq, Kobe... Never - "Ben Wallace." If the Rockets have multiple all-star caliber players on their team that can play together they can win a Championship. Just because it's unusual, or more difficult, doesn't mean it can't happen. How many teams have had multiple all-star caliber players (3 or more), without having a "franchise" player? Has there even been one?
Some of those players are not considered as franchise players at least BEFORE they actually win the title. It's arguable, but Dirk/Pierce are multi-year allstars who need super strong supporting cast and smart/aggressive management to put together a contending team. Pippen, Rodman, Parker... are not franchise players but super sidekicks.
I was just going to make this comment but you beat me to it. Pierce and Dirk are the ultimate examples of players that were seen as 2nd tier superstars prior to winning the championship. They were drafted at positions 9 & 10 and the Celtics were considered average to below average while the Mavs were considered soft with no chance at winning a championship. I think the Mavs, Pistons, Heat (1st championship) and to a lesser degree Celtics are all examples of teams that was not viewed at having a 1st level superstar until after they won the championship. Mavs - Dirk drafted 9th, both he and the team were seen as soft. No one gave the Mavs any chance at even getting to the championship much less winning. Pistons - Billups 3rd pick but seen as a journeyman type player until after the championship, Rip Hamilton 7th pick never seen as a superstar, Ben Wallace free agent Heat - Wade 5th pick and all star caliber but not superstar until after championship. Shaq was already over the hill and the Heat were not considered serious contenders to win the championship. Celtics - Pierce drafted 10th pick was nothing but an all star player on a very mediocre to bad team prior to championship. None of those players were considered to be on the same level as Shaq, MJ, Hakeem, Bird, Magic or Kobe. And speaking of Kobe.., Lakers - Kobe is and has been a superstar but he was drafted 13 in the draft so no one really anticipated he would turn into an HoF type of superstar. Those teams should give the league hope because the best players on those teams were drafted between 5 - 13 with the one exception being Billups who was not even considered all star material at the time. That is 6 out of the last 9 championships.
I agree completely, I just think there are 3 tiers of great players, All-Star Caliber (Tayshaun Prince, Chris Bosh)make a few All-Star teams but won't be the true cause of the championship, Upper Echelon All-Star (Pippen, Rodman, Ben Wallace) elite at important elements of the game, but not good enough to be the Alpha Male of a team, and the Top End Superstar (LeBron, Kobe, Jordan) no explanation needed. And for the purposes of the argument I don't think you can win with just All-Star Caliber players, you have to have at least have someone who is elite enough to be considered an "Upper Echelon All-Star". Dirk and Paul Pierce later on in their careers could be considered "Upper Echelon All-Stars"
Both Dirk and Paul could be the best player in that year, they were just MVP players during the playoff time. Whole point is that you could have a better chance to get a superstar within the top 10 draft, and win it all. Rebuilding should be the only way to get a superstar with couple allstar supporters.
I don't put Dirk, Pierce, Wade or anyone from the pistons teams on the same level as Lebron, Kobe, Shaq, Duncan, MJ, Hakeem, Magic or Bird. It was the championships that put them in the conversation but certainly not in that class. Steve Nash, Allen Iverson, CP3, Carmelo, Deron Williams are all players that I think are seen as just as good or better than Dirk, Pierce or Wade before they won a championship. IMO that gives hope for those teams trying to win a championship with out a Lebron or Kobe level talent. As an example of what I think of Dirk, Pierce or Wade; Karl Malone and John Stockton never won a championship. But if you put either Dirk, Pierce or Wade on that Jazz team they would only be the 3rd best player. They are all great no doubt, but winning the championship did not put them in the level of the top tier HoF players IMO.
Ben Wallace is great but he is not a franchise player. He is a defensive juggernaut but Ben Wallace cannot carry a team due to his offensive deficiencies. Pippen and Tony Parker are super 2nd options on a championship level team but not franchise players. Rodman is just a nice cornerstone on a championship level team. James Worthy is no franchise player as well....
Wow serious underestimation of Wade and Dirk. Melo and D. Will have no business even being compared to Dirk or Wade and this is coming from a Knicks fan. Dirk does everything better than Melo. Better playoffs and regular season performer, way better rebounder, scores on higher efficiency, etc. AI, Nash, and CP3 are closer to Dirk and Wade but still not quite there due to lack of playoff success/not winning a ring. AI in particular was never as good as Wade. Wade has always been far more efficient in terms of scoring and a vastly superior defender. His 2006 Finals performance was also great.
So if the Jason Terry does not go off in the 2011 play-offs (which = no Dallas Championship) does that take away from Dirk as a player? I don't think the championship is the sole deciding factor into a players greatness. Just because 2001 76ers did not have a Jason Terry to step up next to Allen Iverson does not mean that AI was not as good as Dirk. Just because the 2001 Shaq & Kobe Lakers were a hell of a lot better than the 2006 Mav's does not mean that AI was not as good as Wade. Basketball is still a team sport. Granted only 5 players on the court at a time where one players can carry the team.... but only to a point. I think the Karl Malone and John Stockton Jazz would beat the 2011 Mavericks in the championship or the 2006 Heat in the championship. I don't think there is anyway in Hell the 2006 Heat get past the 2nd round of the play-offs in 2012. Of course it's all just specullation and its just all my oppinion, but while I think Dirk and Wade are great players and maybe even HoF players I don't put them in the same class as Magic, Hakeem, MJ, etc... To put a clearer picture on it, I think Clyde Drexler was a better player than either Wade or Dirk but he could not get a championship as the lead dog. Maybe in a different time... say 2006 or 2011 Clyde gets that 1990 Trailblazers team lead by Clyde would have won. Fun topic to discuss anyway.
Found this. Sorry if posted. No Motiejunas, though. <iframe width="560" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/d8J2iw6BWRA" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
