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What are the odds…?

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by crash5179, Aug 18, 2012.

  1. crash5179

    crash5179 Contributing Member

    Dec 9, 2000
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    I evaluated the draft from 1995 thru 2011 (17 years) for all star caliber players and where they were selected. What I really wanted to find out was what are the odds that any of our rookies (Motiejunas, Lamb, White, and Jones), the Toronto, Houston and the Dallas picks turning into all star caliber players.

    Clearly the top 10 picks are the best. But what is surprising is that after the 1st pick, there has not been much of an advantage regardless if you are picking 2nd or 10th. As you will see in my break down, similar talent has been netted at both spots in the draft and throughout the top 10 picks.

    Some of the players I list are a bit subjective such as Kevin Martin and Wilson Chandler or Eric Gordon and Greg Monroe who have never actually made an all-star team but I think fall in the category of all-star caliber. Guys like Taj Gibson, Chandler Parsons, Omer Asik, Courtney Lee, Aaron Afflalo are not on the list because while I think they are high quality players I don’t view any of them as all-star caliber…yet. Of course several players from the last five drafts or so are likely to become all-star caliber players like Steve Nash or Chauncey Billups did after they had been in the league for several years. I omitted any of the 2012 draft picks because they have not done anything to deserve to be on the list yet.

    Here is the list which includes 91 players:

    Player		Overall Pick	Year Drafted
    LaMarc Aldridge		2	2006
    Ray Allen 		5	1996
    Carmelo Anthony		3	2003
    Gilbert Arenas		31	2001
    Ron Artest		16	1999
    Andrea Bargnani		1	2006
    Mike Bibby		2	1998
    Chaunc Billups		3	1997
    Andrew Bogut		1	2005
    Carlos Boozer		35	2002
    Chris Bosh		4	2003
    Elton Brand		1	1999
    Caron Butler		10	2002
    Kobe Bryant		13	1996
    Andrew Bynum		10	2005
    Marcus Camby		2	1996
    Vince Carter		5	1998
    Tyson Chandler		2	2001
    Wilson Chandler		23	2007
    DeMarc Cousins		5	2010
    Stephen Curry		7	2009
    Baron Davis 		3	1999
    Luol Deng		7	2004
    Tim Duncan		1	1997
    Kevin Durant		2	2007
    Monte Ellis		40	2005
    Tyreke Evens		4	2009
    Steve Francis		2	1999
    D Gallinari		6	2008
    Kevin Garnett		5	1995
    Marc Gasol 		48	2007
    Pau Gasol		3	2001
    Rudy Gay		8	2006
    Manu Ginobli		57	1999
    Eric Gordon 		7	2008
    Marcin Gortat		57	2005
    Danny Grager		17	2005
    Blake Griffin		1	2009
    Rich Hamilton		7	1999
    James Harden		3	2009
    Roy Hibbert		17	2008
    Al Horford		3	2007
    Serge Ibaka		24	2008
    Z Ilgauskas		20	1996
    Andre Iguodala		9	2004
    Kyrie Irving		1	2011
    Allen Iverson		1	1996
    LeBron James		1	2003
    Al Jefferson		15	2004
    Rich Jefferson		13	2001
    Joe Johnson		10	2001
    Chris Kaman		6	2003
    A Kirilenko		24	1999
    Rashard Lewis		32	1998
    Brook Lopez		10	2008
    Kevin Love		5	2008
    Corey Maggette		13	1999
    Shawn Marion		9	1999
    Kevin Martin		26	2004
    Tracy McGrady		9	1997
    Andre Miller 		8	1999
    Brad Miller		N/A	1998
    Greg Monroe		7	2010
    Steve Nash		15	1996
    Nene		      7	    2002
    Joakim Hoah		9	2007
    Dwight Howard		1	2004
    Dirk Nowitzki		9	1998
    Emeka Okafor		2	2004
    Jermaine O'Neal		17	1996
    Tony Parker		28	1999
    Chris Paul 		4	2005
    Paul Pierce		10	1998
    Zach Randolph		19	2001
    Rajon Rondo 		21	2006
    Derrick Rose		1	2008
    Rick Rubio		5	2009
    Brandon Roy		6	2006
    J Stackhouse		3	1995
    A Stoudemire		9	2002
    Peja Stojakovic		14	1996
    Jason Terry		10	1999
    Dwyane Wade		5	2003
    John Wall		1	2010
    Ben Wallace		N/A	1996
    Gerald Wallace		25	2001
    Rasheed Wallace		4	1995
    David West		18	2003
    R Westbrook		4	2008
    Deron Williams		3	2005
    Yao Ming		1	2002
    Pick 1 produced 12 All-Star Caliber Players out of 17 selections.

    No surprise that the number 1 pick produces such a high success rate. The odds are slightly better than 2 : 3 that whatever team drafting with the number 1 pick will get an all star player. The best player selected here was Tim Duncan but other notable selections include LeBron James and Yao Ming.

    Picks 2 thru 10 produced a combined total of 50 All-Star Caliber players out of 153 selections.

    For teams selecting in this range the odds are almost exactly 1 : 3. The first obvious thing here that jumps out at you is the drop off from success immediately after pick number 1. Of course pick number 2 has a much higher chance of success than the remaining selections right? The odds are slanted because we are averaging 2 thru 10 together, right? Sure, a little but not as much as you might think.

    Pick number 2 had 7 all-star caliber players out of 17 selections giving teams 1 : 2.4 odds of success while pick number 10 had 6 all-star caliber players out of 17 selections giving teams 1 : 2.8 odds of success. OK but all all-stars are not the same talent level, there is your Michael Jordan all star and your garden variety Danny Ainge all-star. Obviously there is a serious talent drop of from pick 2 thru pick 10 right? Uh…no, not really.

    The best players selected with the 2nd overall pick in the last 17 years are Kevin Durant and LaMarcus Aldridge while the best player selected at pick 10 are Paul Pierce and Andrew Bynum. Pick 3 produced Pau Gasol, Deron Williams and Chauncy Billups. Pick 4 produced Russell Westbrook, Chris Paul and Chris Bosch. Pick 5 produced Kevin Garnett, DWayne Wade and Ray Allen Pick 6 produced Brandon Roy, pick 7 Richard Hamilton, pick 8 Rudy Gay and pick 9 Dirk Nowitzki and Amare Stoudemire.

    It should be obvious that except for a few exceptions (picks 6 thru 8), teams selecting in draft positions 2 thru 10 have enjoyed roughly the same odds of selecting a high level all-star regardless of draft position within the top 10.

    Picks 11 thru 15 produced a combined total of 6 All-Star Caliber players out of a 85 selections.

    And there is your cut-off! Teams only have about a 1 : 14 odds of successfully landing an all-star caliber player drafting in this area. The drop off after pick number 10 is astronomical and it’s not even a gradual drop off. In 17 years picks number 11 or 12 did not produce an all-star quality player, let’s hope Jeremy Lamb can break that trend!

    The best players selected in this area were Kobe Bryant at 13 and Steve Nash at 15.

    Picks 16 thru 20 produced a combined total of 7 All-Star Caliber players out of a 85 selections.

    This group actually produced all-star caliber players at a slightly higher rate giving teams in this area 1 : 12 odds of success. Not much of a difference except that this is the first group that as of yet has not produced a single serious Hall of Fame candidate. The best players in this category are Ron Artest, Jermaine O’Neal and Zach Randolph.

    Picks 21 thru 25 produced a combined total of 5 All-Star Caliber players out of a 85 selections.

    The odds for teams successfully drafting all-star caliber players in this area were only 1: 17. Not really too much of a drastic drop off but there was another slight drop in the quality of talent as the best players were Rajon Rondo, Gerald Wallace and Andre Kirilenko.

    Picks 26 thru 60 only produced a total of 9 all-star caliber players out of 595 possible selections.

    There is certainly no surprise here. The best players selected in this area were Manu Ginobli and Tony Parker. Brad Miller and Ben Wallace should also be mentioned but they were not drafted.

    So What Does It All Mean?

    Simple, if you want to have a decent chance at All-Star quality talent you realistically need to be drafting in the top 10. The exception to that are the really deep draft classes. The 1996 draft produced 8 all-star caliber players (9 if you include undrafted Ben Wallace). Five of those all-stars were drafted from picks 13 thru 20 and included Kobe Bryant and Steve Nash,. The 1999 draft class produced 12 All-Star Caliber players. Five of those players were drafted outside of the top 10 and included Tony Parker, Ron Artest and Andre Kirilenko. The 2001 draft class produced 7 All-Star Caliber players. Four of those players were drafted from picks 13 thru 31 and included Gerald Wallace and Zach Randolph.

    Most recently the 2008 draft class so far has produced 8 All-Star Caliber players. Players drafted outside of the top 10 are Roy Hibbert at 17 and Serge Ibalka at 24. There are other players from that draft class that could prove themselves as All-Star Caliber players such as Goran Dragic, Nicolas Batum, Omer Asik, Mario Chalmers and DeAndre Jordan.
    OK so it doesn’t take an Einstein to know your odds of drafting All-Star Talent later in the draft increase in a deep draft.

    How This Relates to the Rockets

    Let’s start with the Donatas Motiejunas. If we just look at the last 17 years of draft history, unless that draft class is as deep as the 1996, 1999 or 2001 draft classes, the odds are astronomically low that he will ever become an All-Star caliber player. Just based on history it’s not very likely that his ceiling exceeds anything Luis Scola ever achieved. Having said that let’s hope that DMo turns into someone as good as Jermaine O’Neal became at his best.

    The Rockets 2012 draft class should be full of hope. According to all of the experts, while this draft class did not have a superstar like LeBron James or Hakeem Olajuwan, it was still very deep with talent. I think the Rockets actually have a decent shot at one of their picks (Lamb, White or Jones) turning into an all-star player.

    If the projections are correct about next summer’s draft then it will be top heavy with talent but not very deep. This makes getting a top 10 pick imperative if the Rockets want any shot at all at an all-star quality player from the 2012 draft. This makes the Toronto pick all the more valuable since I just do not see that team finishing outside of the bottom 8. If the Rockets pick is also a top 10 pick that would give them better than a 50 : 50 chance at getting an All-Star Caliber player in next summer’s draft. And if the Dallas pick slides to 2018 and becomes a top 10 then Jordan Hill would have more than served his purpose.

    Daryl Morey has proven that you can find good quality players throughout the draft. However, the historical data shows that unless the draft is exceptionally deep, the number 11 pick is no better than the number 25 pick in terms of drafting an all-star player.
    #1 crash5179, Aug 18, 2012
    Last edited: Aug 19, 2012
    18 people like this.
  2. iconoclastic

    iconoclastic Member

    Oct 10, 2007
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    The odds aren't applicable with a genius like Morey making picks rather than the likes of Michael Jordan and Isaiah Thomas. What would Morey's odds be of getting All-Stars at each of those draft positions? Probably significantly higher than those of the entire sample size.
    1 person likes this.
  3. zaam

    zaam Contributing Member

    Aug 29, 2001
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    Great post, Crash. Really good perspective there. Since the depth of the draft can be such a factor in your argument, it would be interesting to spread the variables a bit and view a larger sample size. Maybe an additional 10 years.

    Hopefully the Rockets are the beneficiary of an exceptionally deep 2012 draft, as well as some careful scouting. I think we all agree that Lamb should have been picked sooner. Thanks to a couple of teams for reaching. As for DMo, I don't think his draft position really reflects his talent level. His drop in last years draft was due to some mistaken perceptions regarding his work ethic and rebounding ability. Looks like those were unfounded concerns.

    Anyway, thanks for your work.
  4. AFS

    AFS Member

    Dec 1, 2010
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    Concerning D-Mo, does it make a difference that many experts valued him as a top10 pick had he come out this year? Jeremy Lamb should have been a top10 pick but the Raptors decided to reach for Terrence Ross instead.
  5. mvpcrossxover

    mvpcrossxover Member

    Aug 13, 2008
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    I would like the rockets to sign Wilson Galinari. Sounds like a terrific player. :p:grin:
  6. belly664

    belly664 Member

    Oct 8, 2008
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    We can all become Murreys: http://statistics.mit.edu/classes.htm
    1 person likes this.
  7. coachbadlee

    coachbadlee Member

    Feb 5, 2010
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    DMo would have been a top 10 pick had he come out in 2010.
  8. napalm06

    napalm06 #1 Fertitta Fan
    Supporting Member

    Sep 30, 2008
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    His countryman, Danilo Chandler is also waiting to be picked up.

    Great writeup though, lots of great information to ponder. I agree with iconoclastic's post though; this current group of draftees will define Morey, and right now I'm optimistic.
  9. Yung-T

    Yung-T Member

    Apr 16, 2009
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    No one will come close to Hakeem Olajuwan though.
  10. jocar

    jocar Member

    Nov 10, 2007
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    Good stuff dude. The homer in me likes to think DMo's ceiling is Pau rather than Jermaine :D. Lamb's an awesome prospect + 6-11 wings and a 38 inch vertical.?
    <iframe width="560" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/j686NCPHnUA" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
    Let's hope Kmart mentors his offense/shooting and not flopping. Would Lin be the first undrafted all-star if he did get voted in?
  11. Rodman23

    Rodman23 .GIF

    Jun 26, 2012
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    A miLin to one....i like them odds
    1 person likes this.
  12. Wapzoe

    Wapzoe Member

    May 22, 2012
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    I feel we are in a position this year to grab two top ten picks this year.

    What's the projected strength of this next draft as a whole?

    Are we in a good position to draft an all star from it?
  13. cheshire

    cheshire Contributing Member

    Mar 1, 2001
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    I like the thought and application. Great read!
  14. OremLK

    OremLK Member

    Jan 31, 2010
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    Yep... still probably less than a 1 in 4 chance that we get one all star out of ALL OF OUR ROOKIES COMBINED. That's what people need to realize. And that's just saying one all star, not a superstar... one all star doesn't win you anything by himself.
  15. Dreamin

    Dreamin Member

    Dec 14, 2010
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    Great Post. I wish I could be that creative when Im bored (and im bored a lot). Basically if we can get a pick ranging in 2-10 we have a damn good chance of developing an all star.
  16. dialtone888

    dialtone888 Rookie

    Jul 20, 2012
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    It's ez, according to the op's chart:
    85/6=14.16 ; 85/7=12.14 ; 85/5=17
    85+85+85= 255 ; 6+7+5=18
    255/18= 14.16 = 1:14.16 chance.
    1/14=0.71= 7% chance.
  17. Yung-T

    Yung-T Member

    Apr 16, 2009
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    Don't know wtf you just did.

  18. oakdogg

    oakdogg Contributing Member

    Dec 12, 1999
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    Great, great analysis. Really appreciate it!

    One factor to also consider is that high school players were often picked lower than they would have been with a year of school, like they would have today. Kobe would not be 13 with today's rules, nor Al Jefferson at 15, etc. That actually makes the odds slimmer of getting an all star with picks 11-20.

    Again, really appreciated the analysis. It's cool to see that somebody actually confirmed what I may have suspected with verifiable facts.
  19. jopatmc

    jopatmc Contributing Member

    Sep 4, 2002
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    Now, here's the rest of the story.

    As of today, only about 18 players on that list of 91 have won a championship. And of those 18 players that have won championships, only about 10 of them are what you would call alpha dogs. The rest of the 18, although very good players, were not the best player on the championship teams they played for. They were complementary players.

    Now granted, most of these players are still active. And a few more on this list will likely win championships. But not very many. And as far as alpha dog players like Chris Paul and Melo on this list, who are the best players on their respective teams, winning championships...there's probably only 2-4 guys that have a realistic chance. And that chance may come in the latter stage of their careers when they are no longer the lead players on their teams.

    Realistically, it is safe to assume that no more than 25 players of these 91 All-Star players will ever win a championship as the alpha dog lead player for their teams. If you want to prove my point, just go back about ten years, ciphon through the data, examine who the All-Star players were then, and how many of them won championships as the lead dog on their teams.


    This is the entire list of alpha lead dog players that have won championships since 1980. That's 31 years!!!! It goes to show you what calibur of player you have to acquire to win a ring(s).

    Now, a few more of those players on your list of 91 won rings, but remember, they were playing alongside one of these guys. And most of these guys I just listed, like Chauncey, MJ, etc., were playing Batman alongside their Robin in guys like Dumars and Pippen. Pierce had several hall of famers on his squad. Wade has teamed up with Shaq and Lebron for rings. Chauncey had Big Ben, Rasheed, RIP, etc., helping him. Isaiah had JoeD, Magic had Kareem. Bird had a plethora of hall of famers around him.

    Looking forward, the next 3 seasons are going to be dominated by Lebron, Wade, Kobe, Dwight, KD, Westbrook, with the possibility of Pierce,Garnett and Co. or Duncan, Tony, and Manu perhaps slipping in there once. But Pierce is fading fast...as is Kobe....as has Duncan.

    Beyond those teams does anybody else realistically have any chance of winning a ring??? DRose?? Great player. They have no chance next season with him being out a great deal of the season, and he won't be right until 2013-14. By then perhaps. But it will still be a long shot with Lebron and Wade in their primes. DWill and JJ??? Possible. But I seriously doubt it.

    And so goes the NBA. If you are going to win championships, you've got to draft or trade for and develop a top 5 player in this league. And then most likely you are going to need another top 10 player playing alongside that top 5 player or you are going to need 3 or 4 top 20 players playing alongside that top 5 player.

    The good news is we have a GM who is very, very good at talent valuations. And he's quick to correct mistakes (Ariza, JLin). The bad news is after this offseason and last season's Chris Paul trade debacle, we have no chance of winning a championship in the next 3 seasons. None of those guys I listed above are going anywhere and they are going to dominate the league for the next 3 years. The good news could be in about 3 more seasons we will have drafted or traded for and developed a player that is considered top 5 in the NBA with at least 1 teammate in the top 10 or multiple teammates in the top 20.
    #19 jopatmc, Aug 19, 2012
    Last edited: Aug 19, 2012
    1 person likes this.
  20. youngshev03

    youngshev03 Member

    Oct 31, 2007
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    No, there have been a few. Ben Wallace was one off the top of my head.

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