What are the Democrat's prospects for retaking the Senate in 2018?

Interesting post especially wrt to "working class". It is true that many college educated workers with a decent salary identify more with the folks who run the corporations they work for then the person who mops the floor at their office or serves them at the Mc Donald's window.

Go ahead and believe that Hillary and DLC Dems, who mainly court the donor class or their IVY educated peers, who don't identify with the lower working class, play no role in the Dems losing both Houses and 69 of the state legislatures and iirc 33 of the 50 govenorships. They and their consultants are so very very smart and it is only sexism and racism or the fiendishly smart Repubs that makes much of the working class no longer believe in them.

For that matter continue to believe we can have guns and butter both or alternatively the discontented working class should wait on the butter till we bring the Russkies and the ChiComs the Arabs and those lefty Latin Americans etc to heel as they are always imminently threatening the Homeland..

We are both educated wonks and I assume we both work with a decent income which leads to economic comfort.. Aside from consuming media that does not view the NYT as the leftist limit of what is rational and fact based , my work keeps me talking daily and at least vicariously experiencing the brutal daily struggles of the discontented poor and lower working class in a way not experienced by many educated wonks. I

 

That's a specious argument. The last thing I am sure voters were considering was whether Garland deserving a vote.

 

Little to no chance. As much as voters hate Congress as a body, they tend to re-elect their local congressman or senator. Odds of enough of the rare replacement is almost nil.

 

It didn't drive the presidential election, despite Trump's repeated claims that he would nominate a far-right conservative who would overturn RvW. The Democrats, at least right now, are pushing an agenda that turns off too many Americans. When there is rampant, fatalistic poverty with little hope... people don't care who uses the restroom where. They don't. Not urgently, at least.

What will potentially swing the Senate in '18 is if Trump proves same-'ol-same-'ol instead of the "drain the swamp" candidate he claimed he'd be and voters revolt; they did it in 2010. Also, collectively, voters tend to prefer a balanced government; they like checks and balances - so it's possible they'll want Trump held in check.

Of course, we can expend a billion words on this - at the end of the day, it all comes down to turnout. If the scores of entitled, elitist dumbasses who took their ball and went home on election day because, "Bernie or Bust!" show up because they recognize they need to desperately atone for their reckless irresponsibility last week, maybe it'll turn. If the scores of African-Americans who stayed home on election day because they couldn't see the big picture beyond Hillary Clinton, maybe it'll turn. If the 61MM people who showed up to vote for Clinton/(D) don't, as they're prone to do, sit out the mid-terms, maybe it'll turn.

Big ifs...

 

this is because most people consistently vote a particular party (as they should)

problem is when there's a viable alternative and a real chance to hold a senator's feet to the fire is during primaries, but most voters don't participate in primaries (because voters are dumb)

Need to repeal the 17th Amendment and go back to state legislatures selecting senators. That was one of the only checks states had against the feds. Now there is nothing other than an Article V convention (very difficult to carry out).

 

It is not a republican vs Democrat deal any longer, the Repubs did not win the election, it was a RAGE against the machine win, where people voted for an outsider....which is why Bernie would have destroyed both of the candidates.

DD

 

Hillary got 1 mm (and counting) more votes than Trump. White folks in certain areas voted for the candidate that promised to restore their primacy at nonwhites expense.

Bernie is not changing that.

 

Somewhat.

But the trend the last 6 years is definitely towards the right (Republicans) and away from the left. This is why there are a record number of Republican Governors and state legistlators as well as the first all Republican control of President, House, and Senate in 88 years.

You can't just dismiss the total failure of the Democrat party away that easily. Take Obama's successes out (granted being President is huge) and the Democrats are in total shambles from the last 6 years of results.

 

2018 was always going to be a D bloodbath.

Mid term election, too many D seats up for grabs.

The question is how much damage can the Dems prevent in preparation for what could be a conservative reckoning in 2020.

 

The more relevant pattern is that the President's party almost always loses seats.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-poli...idterm-elections-2018-democrats-chances-house

Your pattern doesn't break with that historical pattern.

 

Not likely to happen in 2018, 2020 maybe. That is unless Trump angers so many people that Democrats and Independents turn out in droves and GOP stays home, he is trying to do that at this very moment.

 

Same as a few months ago... "slim and none... and slim rode off already". Doesn't matter if the republican congress has followed along with Trump and continued to be a do-nothing congress. Doesn't matter if the majority of people oppose Trump's ideas and actions (and therefore the republican-led congress' ideas and actions). Doesn't matter that Trump has below 40% approval or the republican-led congress has less than 15% approvals.

Local voters hate congress as a whole, but love their local congressman. So the odds that any single incumbent loses is pretty small, and that a large enough number of incumbents lose to swing Congress to Democrats is so small to be immeasurable. If someone that violently assaulted a reporter wins in Montana... chances that incumbents that are not violent criminals losing are almost non-existent.

 

Tough to predict. A market correction or Trumpcare being as bad as predicted could swing some seats. If I'm the Dems I keep telling folks after 8 years, all the GOP has on healthcare is don't get sick.

The Dems really need to lay off the social issues and focus on economic issues. Still need another generation to pass in order to make meaningful headways there.

 

Economy drives the electorate . . . . .. then social issues
If bellies are hungry . . . no one gives a d*mn about abortion ./ same sex marriage/ etc

when bellies are full then people want to sit on the judgement hill and try social controls etc .....

IF in 2018 . . .. alot of people are hurting financially . . . . .then the voters will come out - so they better have a message and plan ready beyond HE SUCKS!!
otherwise. . . .expect the same ole ****

Rocket River

 

And the GOP did a great job of helping the electorate forget we had the worst modern economic crisis just 10 years ago while the Dems focused too much on social issues. The Dems let the GOP create the economic narrative and healthcare narrative.

Like I said earlier, a market correction is coming and it will be probably be a bigly one. It would amusing if it came from a Trump trade renegotiation or a Trump tariff.

 

My guess is that Democrats have slightly less than 50% chance of taking back the Senate. I haven't really paid attention to any polls this far out, so I'm just guessing.

 

LOL you honestly believe this. Whatever makes you feel better, champ. It had nothing to do with Hillary being a terrible candidate.

 

Slightly less than 50%?

They have almost no chance. The 2018 Senate elections are about setting up 2020, which is when Dems have a very legit opportunity of taking back the Senate. They would do well to break even in 2018.