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What are the chances that Altuve does not become a first ballot Hall of Famer

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by what, Oct 22, 2023.

  1. what

    what Member

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    The more I think about it, the more I realize that he most likely won’t be one, because of his involvement with the sign stealing scandal.
    First ballot Hall of Famers are the best of the best, and you not only have to have the stats to back it up, you can’t have any optics which would give you pause.

    You have seen how Pete Rose has been dealt with and also Barry Bonds, among others. Both were probably the two best players of their generation and they are not even in the Hall due to optics.

    I don’t think Altuve will be that harshly dealt with, but I do think it takes him out of consideration for first ballot Hall of Famer. He will most likely be a second ballot Hall of Famer, and (as much as it hurts me) that is probably the correct place for him.

    Rightly or wrongly, the sign stealing scandal happened on Altuve’s watch and he could have and should have done something about it. I don’t want to get into the hypocrisy that is Major League Baseball — the idea that every team was doing it. Because it doesn’t really matter if the mlb has bias. Or the fact that — on Derek Jeter’s watch, his teammates were doping up, and he still made first ballot hall of fame. Although I think the situation is similar, it is not the actual same, for whatever reason. Doping and a sign stealing schemes are a bit different beasts.

    You could argue that Tom Brady should be dinged for his involvement with multiple New England schemes, and we all know that he won’t. So why Altuve would suffer seems nonsensical, but my gut feeling is that he will. People hate Jose Altuve to this day.
     
  2. rocketsjudoka

    rocketsjudoka Member
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    If Altuve retired after this season I don’t think he is a first ballot. They’re still so much unwarranted hate even among writers. If he keeps up this level or excellence maybe things change years from now.

    From what I’ve been seeing it’s been 6 years since 2017 and people still say the same things about Altuve and the Astros. Is it’s still going to be awhile before opinions really changeZ
     
  3. Qan

    Qan Member

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  4. Nook

    Nook Member

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    At this point it doesn’t matter if he is first or third ballot. Roger Clemens is the best pitcher in 100 years and Barry Bonds is the best hitter in 90 years and neither are in the Hall of Fame. The best singles hitter of all time (Pete Rose) isn’t in either… nor is the best SS ever (A-Rod).
     
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  5. Houstunna

    Houstunna The Most Unbiased Fan
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    I just hope he gets in. Avoiding a ridiculous 10-year wait only adds to the satisfaction.
     
  6. mvpcrossxover

    mvpcrossxover Member

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    Then the city of Houston riot
     
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  7. BlindHog

    BlindHog Member

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    Remember who gets to vote for Hall of Famers. Altuve is more likely to not get in at all than to get in on the first ballot. If you think the media will back off their narrative you are simply not paying attention
     
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  8. IdStrosfan

    IdStrosfan Member

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    He still has work to do.

    If he retired now, he is closer to Chase Utley and Dustin Pedroia that Roberto Alomar and Ryne Sandberg.

    (Rank among 2nd basemen)

    49.3 bWAR (26th all time)
    52.6 fWAR (22nd all time)

    2047 hits (26th all time)
    1062 runs (35th all time)

    Those aren't HOF final career numbers.

    In 2-3 more solid years he may have a case.

    He just needs to keep doing what he's doing.
     
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  9. IBTL

    IBTL Member
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    Let's give thanks to the Lord and vote our brother in.
     
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  10. Air Langhi

    Air Langhi Contributing Member

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    He is also one of the greatest post season players ever.
     
  11. Newlin

    Newlin Member

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    People outside of Houston hate Altuve and the Astros. They won’t let him in.
     
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  12. IdStrosfan

    IdStrosfan Member

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    Yes. And so is Dustin Pedroia and Chase Utley.

    (And David Freese)

    I just think his regular season numbers need some boosting or else too many writers will dismiss him.
     
  13. juicystream

    juicystream Member

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    Altuve has way more postseason success than any of those guys. The averages are way better in way more games.
     
  14. Dredd

    Dredd Member

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    They will treat him like the roids players and never let him in.
     
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  15. The Beard

    The Beard Member

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    I’m not convinced he will ever get in

    Not as long as it’s the media making the decisions
     
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  16. Nick

    Nick Member

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    This is basically a poor man’s psych study to see who in here is baseline pessimistic, baseline optimistic, and baseline realist.

    Everything pretty much being distributed as expected.

    It should be noted that the media emphasis on the scandal took a severe downturn this year compared to 2021 and most of 2022. Mostly because the Astros kept winning and any writer that wants to bring it up for any sort of qualifying or “just because” reason gets bombarded by a host of receipts when they once took a more polarizing or borderline hypocritical view.

    The media members are as culpable for this being a thing as anything… and its impacted their ability to cover these players, or any Astros players, thus they’re trying their best to re-phrase all of it as the Astros already proved they aren’t going away any time soon.
     
  17. IdStrosfan

    IdStrosfan Member

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    I hope I am in the realist camp.

    I just found a very cool site that I love and am going to spend more time on.

    It's called "hallofstats.com"

    They explain they use stats, including WAR and WAA and many more to create a mathematical formula where all 242 hall of famers are removed and then the 242 players with the highest rating by this formula are then included. Then adjust the ratings where 100 is the average "hall of statter"

    Altuve is the 25th all time second baseman with a 88.

    It's important to note it only considers regular season and is Stats only, but I like it quite a bit.
     
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  18. Nick

    Nick Member

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    There’s been more and more of this in recent years as voters’ ballots become more transparent and “bias and agendas” get rightfully scrutinized and those writers get further exposed as hacks, and can’t physically do their jobs or put out stories without being called out for it.

    There’s also a lot of unsaid movement in the BBWA field where many writers don’t really have the same “gig” they once did, thanks to how sport-writing is basically consumed now. While it isn’t hard to keep your membership, I could also see the entire organization having to adapt and accept a new generation of voters/writers that don’t feel like the game basically belongs to them.

    A lot can continue to change with that process, and this sport over the next 5 years… as a lot already has changed in the last decade since the steroid implications were at its peak. David Ortiz and Pujols were highly implicated when everybody else was… but it won’t matter when the dust is settled.
     
  19. Houstunna

    Houstunna The Most Unbiased Fan
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    Rank among every postseason player who ever lived:

    Top 10

    If he retired today he'd be a career .300 hitter, 3x batting champ, MVP, who's led the league 10x in categories that matter.

    The only thing stopping from HOF is the scandal.

    Adding more regular season numbers is icing at this point.
     
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  20. The Beard

    The Beard Member

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    Agree from a numbers standpoint

    What he has done in the playoffs should cement first ballot even

    But I think there will be enough POS writers who will refuse to ever vote for him that he never gets in
     

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