What are Morey's and our player's thoughts on the lockout?

I like the idea of being able to use it at any time within a certain period, but I'm not wild about being able to use it more than 3 years out or being able to trade it. 3 years sounds appropriate.

 

The more complicated the rules, the bigger advantage that Morey has, but that doesn't compensate for the fact that Houston isn't Miami, NY, Chicago, or LA.

It's going to be extremely difficult to lure superstars here when more glamorous options are available. This is why rebuilding through the lottery is inevitable. I just hope Les-More have finally accepted that reality. We shall know soon enough.

 

On the amnesty-trading suggestion, how do you put a salary cap value on that? Or has it no salary cap value attached, like a future draft pick? Also, in a way, it would be tradable in that you could trade your amnesty-target-player to the Rockets who would then use the amnesty rule on him. They would have to write a rule forbidding the use on amnesty on newly acquired players if they didn't want that to happen (and i don't know why they would do that).

I do like the idea of a very long horizon. I think 3 years is a little too short. Maybe 5 years. It would give someone like Morey a little rope to gamble on handing out a big contract, knowing he could erase his mistake easily if it doesn't pan out. Though, I can't quite see GMs keeping this option in their back pocket for more than a season or two, honestly. If they don't have a need for it, they'll trade for someone to amnesty long before Year 5 came along.

 

I agree about the 5 year scenario, but to me, it just seemed a way to even out the Amnesty situation for owners and organizations that have managed the cap well like the Rockets.

You could literally trade it for a very high pick in the first round to a team that wants to jettison a bad contract.

It just opens it up a bit I think.

Maybe the Rox will read this and insert it into the negotiations?



DD

 

Whatever the rules changes are, we will still need a star. So in the short term the best outcome for us is whatever would give us the best shot at Dwight Howard next summer.

That means we want the attractive teams who will be spending more than us to be limited from signing or trading for him by the new cap/Bird rules (LA, Miami, Chicago, Dallas, NY, OKC). With those teams out of the way, we would be mainly fighting Orlando, the Nets, Washington, and Boston, which gives us a fighting chance. I doubt Howard would want to go back to Orlando and we are better managed than Washington. So Boston and the Nets would be the main competition imo, with the Nets having an edge b/c of DWill and being in Brooklyn.

I think this is what Morey is hoping for.

 

One proposed rule change that could seriously impact the Rockets' pursuit of Dwight Howard or Chris Paul is the proposed "Carmelo Rule," in which a player CANNOT have his contract extended after the start of the regular season prior to his contract expiring, the player option year or the Early Termination Option year. This way, a player cannot hold his team hostage during the season in order to force his way to his preferred team, knowing that his new team could just extend his contract immediately upon acquiring him via trade. (Note that this rule in ON TOP OF the proposed elimination of sign-and-trade deals altogether, since this scenario is technically not a sign-and-trade.)

If the Carmelo Rule is adopted, then the Rockets would be forced to either (a) get a deal for Howard or Paul done IMMEDIATELY after the lockout and prior to the start of the regular season, or (b) trade for Howard or Paul WITHOUT the benefit of being able to extend their contracts, meaning that the Rockets risk losing their recently-acquired star in 2012.

 

Or (c) build a strong foundation this year and convince Howard to sign here next off-season.

I know there'll be rule changes as far as contract length, raises, etc. go, but I actually think the Carmelo Rule would benefit the Rockets, as I don't think we have the contracts/assets to trade for Howard and convince him to sign an extension afterwards.

Our best shot to get Howard was the 2012 free agency all along, in my opinion.

 

Better be one hell of a foundation.

This team's going to have to be able to beat the Heat, Knicks, Lakers, and Bulls.

Unless we get Paul, I don't think we get Howard, and unless Howard agrees to come, I don't think Paul stays.

 

That's a good point and probably the only reason I'd use assets to trade for Chris Paul, though I'd argue that Lowry-Martin-TopTierSF-Scola/Patterson-Howard & a strong bench could compete with the best of them.

Also, no matter how good a job you do building a team, it'll be very tough to beat the Heat & Thunder the next few years regardless. That goes for every team that'll be in the hunt for Howard.
Sure, the Rockets' odds to get Howard aren't great, but they shouldn't be much worse than the odds of the other teams trying sign Howard, either.

 

Bima- or anyone who is familar with the finances of teams- what teams could sign Howard as a free agent without trading for him? I'm curious to see how our city/roster compares to the competition.

 

Tough to say. As of right now over half of the teams could have enough cap room to sign Howard. But some teams will spend money this off-season (if there is one) signing or re-signing guys. Some teams will have to extend their rookies and maybe most importantly we we don't know what the salary cap will be.

It'll probably come down to under ten teams or so that'll have the money. Maybe even less, though some teams might just take a chance and take a shot at Howard.

Barring bigger trades, I think it'll come down to the Celtics, Rockets, Nets, Wizards, Clippers & possibly Sixers.
OKC & Dalls could be in the mix, if they move some (bigger) salaries around.

 

Out of all of those, I'd say our biggest competition is the Nets, however if we can get CP3, then I think we convince him.

I don't think Howard is in it for endorsements or a certain city, I think he legit just wants to win. Plus, none of those teams have major markets, as both the Clips and Nets are both the "little brother" teams of their respective cities.

 

I would agree that Dwight wants to win, but if you read between the lines of all the interviews he's given there's zero chance he'll go to a small market. It doesn't have to be NY, LA or Chicago, but he sure won't go to Utah, Cleveland, Memphis or Sacramento.

All of the teams I listed have solid foundations and are in top-10 TV markets, so I wouldn't rule any of them out, though I would agree that the Nets appear to be the early favorites, should Howard enter free agency. I probably would put Boston second and Houston or Dallas third.

 

If he goes to Dallas, then we're screwed. A Howard-Dirk-Chandler frontline would beat any team.