[Western Conference Finals] (1)Golden State vs. (3)Oklahoma City

He'd be a pretty good 6th man. Take the load off of Chandsome when he's a bit tired.

 

Billy Donovan is a great coach. He seems to know what he's doing and the thunder seem to be clicking at the right moment. I can smell an upset. Length bothers Golden State ah la the Milwaukee Bucks.

 

Can't believe the Spurs choked the OKC series away.

I think Warriors will get this in 6 games but I'm going to be rooting for OKC. If Westbrook plays at his MVP level for 4 games, they've got a chance...

If GSW crushes OKC, I'm going to guess Durant will leave OKC.

 

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Rocket River

 

Being up 2-1, then losing 3 games in a row is not a good definition of choking. It's usually called early series adjustments by one team that had no counter by the other, so they got exposed and trounced. And this isn't the first OKC has done that to SAS. Durant/WB won 4 games in a row vs SAS before.

 

the splash brothers vs the stache brothers. i hate the warriors and they tend to disappoint me so i'm going gsw in 4.

 

not that i gamble or pay much attention to lines, but is the warriors at -500 a big deal? the nba is usually fairly predictable and now we're talking about a historically great team. i'd be shocked if the thunder can win this. that just doesn't seem to happen to the truly historical teams. granted, the thunder did just beat a team with a historically great point differential, but they were also 2-2 in the regular season and had advantages. they were 0-3 vs the warriors and don't have the athleticism advantage.

or is the possibility of another curry injury holding the odds back?

 

Holding the odds back? -500 means you'd have to bet $500 on the Warriors to win $100. Conversely, you'd only have to bet $100 on the Thunder to win $400. With those odds, Vegas is practically BEGGING people to put their money on the Thunder.

 

i know that's what it means. that still seems almost low to me. like i pretty much never thought the 72-10 bulls could lose a series. and it just seems like it would be crazy for a 73 win team to not win the title. like maybe 5 to 1 for them to win the title, not just for the conference title. 4 out of 5 teams with 68 wins have won the title and so a 73 win team would seemingly be much more likely than the average. but like i said, i don't pay much attention to lines.

 

I don't think it's low at all... especially judging by the comments in this thread LOL. Also, there's no value at all in risking $500 to win $100 on the Warriors.

 

-500 might be a little high. 538's Carm-ELO system has the Warriors with approximately a 70% chance to win the series, which seems about right to me. -500, I guess, is valuing the Warriors as roughly 83% shots.

 

Vegas isn't really trying to pick winners and losers, just adjust lines so that they get equal amounts of money on both sides, while they make money off the transaction fees. As the line stabilizes, you're seeing what the perceptions are of the betting public.

I don't think the Warriors are a lock--they're significantly better, but there's still the risk that Curry isn't fully back in peak rhythm or that the Warriors could have some bad games. A couple of the Warriors/Thunder games were tight in the final minute and if a few of those don't go the Warriors way, you could get a big upset.

 

I hope OKC upsets them

OKC in the playoffs has significantly improved compared to the reg season

They held mavs to 93ppg (102ppg reg season) and the spurs to 99ppg (103ppg reg season)
And scored 112/113ppg on them (110ppg reg season)

while the warrios allowed the blazers 114ppg (10 more points than the season avg)

and OKC's depth evenly matches GSW's if not better

 

Hard to cheer for either. You want KD to come to Houston(and watch Westbrook implode), but I despise everything about Draymond and Steve Kerr. Well, let's add that nasty rat Steven Adams to the mix, too.

I guess I'll have to go for Toronto because of our former Rockets like KLow/Scola/PatPat.

If that fails, it would be impressive to see Lebron back in the finals again. The man is incredible.

 

OKC upsets GSW
Raps take Cavs to 7
Cavs beat OKC in 5 games

problem solved

 

Why Steve Kerr? He comes across as one of the nicest, low-key guys in the league.

 

Durant isn't coming here, so I will root for the upset

I hate everything about the warriors with a passion

 

This is a common misconception. There are definitely games/series where Vegas takes a side.

 

Steve Kerr? Nicest and low key? Dude has the most arrogant, smug looking face... especially when he's complaining about calls.

 

i realize that. i guess i just thought they would be insane favorites. but i guess based on 538, the public is backing them big time beyond just what the numbers say. and like i said, i don't pay attention to lines so maybe -500 is self-regulating because, as el gnomo points out, there's no real point in wagering 5 to get 1 no matter how likely it is.