West Virginia democratic primary contest May 13th: Results thread

McCain 290
Obama 237
Ties 11

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Maps/May14.html

That'd be a blow out

What would Clinton vs McCain look like, you ask?

Clinton 280
McCain 241
Ties 17

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Clinton/Maps/May14.html


Supers, do your job.

 

They are

Over 30 of them have broke for Obama in the last week.

 

What did you think about those electoral vote numbers, mcmark? Hillary certainly made a well-reasoned argument last night in her speech that she is the best candidate in the General. Do you agree?

 

it is OK to agree she would do better in the general but be against her stance on issues.

 

Of course, T_J ignores the fact that McCain made this deal to give his delegates to Huckabee because he was getting his ass kicked in West Virginia anyway - he was in 3rd place of the 3 candidates.

 

no I do not

BTW two more supers broke for Obama this morning.

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/

SUPERS DOING THIER JOB!!!

 

OMG, you are SO FREAKIN SCARED OF BARACK OBAMA!

As for your advise to the Super Delegates, it is a really good thing the Super Delegates:

a. Read the D&D at ClutchFans every morning
b. (when they do) listen to your advise on what is best for the Democratic Party

Do you have a painting in your house that looks like this:



with your face superimposed on it?



I like the Electoral Vote tracker website, but it is not a solid tool this early in the game and so I think using it to predict the outcome of an election almost 6 months from now is sketchy at best.

My belief is that McCain is actually the Republican's best chance to win the Presidency because the general population sees him as more independent than other candidates. If he moves to the right, like he has been lately, he is in big trouble. The Republican Party has fallen out of favor with a majority of the US Population. That is not just my opinion.

link

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Barack Obama attracting 47% of the vote while John McCain earns 46%. Obama has now held a statistically insignificant lead over McCain for nine straight days. Seven of those nine days have found the candidates just one point apart. Prior to this past week, Obama had not been ahead of McCain for a sustained period of time since mid-February (see recent daily results).

Obama leads by fifteen points among those who are not married while McCain has the lead among married voters. The marriage gap is particularly noticeable among women. McCain leads by nine percentage points among women who are married while Obama leads by twenty-three among women who are not married.

New polling released today shows that 29% of Democrats want Hillary Clinton to run an Independent campaign for the White House. The number who want her to drop out of the race has changed little in recent weeks.

State polls for the Obama-McCain match-up have recently been released for Virginia, North Carolina, Oregon and Michigan (see summary of recent state-by-state results). The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189.

Among all voters nationwide, Obama is viewed favorably by 50%, McCain by 49% (see recent daily ratings). Among unaffiliated voters, Obama is viewed favorably by 56%, McCain by 45%. Rasmussen Markets data gives Democrats a 61.9 % chance of winning in November (results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants).

Senate polling shows at least ten Republican Senate seats could be in play for Democrats during Election 2008. These include Senate seats in North Carolina, Oregon, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Colorado, Alaska, Minnesota, Kentucky, Virginia, and Texas. Underlying this dismal outlook for the GOP is the fact that more and more people are considering themselves to be Democrats. In fact, the Democrats now have the largest partisan advantage over the Republicans since Rasmussen Reports began tracking this data on a monthly basis nearly six years ago.

New polling data shows that Democrats are now trusted more than Republicans on all ten key issues tracked regularly by Rasmussen Reports. Democrats even have the edge on national security issues. This comes as confidence in the War on Terror has dropped sharply over the past month. Just 22% give the President good marks for his handling of the situation in Iraq.

Other polling shows that 60% of voters believe that raising taxes is bad for the economy. Just 14% hold the opposite view. Fifty-four percent (54%) believe taxes will go up if Hillary Clinton becomes President. Fifty-one percent (51%) say an Obama Administration will lead to higher taxes and 33% expect that result from a President McCain.

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, Obama holds a 50% to 43% advantage over Clinton nationally (see recent Democratic Nomination results). As noted Friday, Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up. Among all voters, Clinton is viewed favorably by 46%.

The candidates are each favored to win one primary next Tuesday--Clinton in Kentucky and Obama in Oregon. Data from Rasmussen Markets give Obama a 91.0 % chance of winning the nomination.

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups and favorability ratings.

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.

 

[edit] make that four

UPDATE: The two remaining college-aged superdelegates have also endorsed Obama, via a Youtube posting last night.

 

mc mark, Dean's party strategy was to fight in all 50 states, so regardless of the eventual nominee (Barack), we were going to be more competitive in more states than would have otherwise been the case. I may not have expressed myself well. Barack has had to campaign pretty hard in states that conventional wisdom said Clinton was going to lose. He's had to campaign pretty hard in states where she was expected to win, just to keep it close. Had she given up, he wouldn't have been in those states nearly as much and I would be willing to bet that his organization wouldn't be as strong. So as painful as it has been at times, one could argue that this process has been a net plus for Obama and for Democrats. All you have to do is look at the vote totals. Record turnouts in countless states for a Democratic primary. Record fundraising by both major Democratic candidates. Heck, Hillary has raised more than double the amount McCain has raised. In any other season, it would be a huge story. Instead, you have Barack's fundraising being simply off the charts. Put it together and you have trouble for the GOP, with a capitol T.



Impeach Bush. Sentence Him to Community Service.

In West Virginia.

 

Looks like Obama is going to crush Hilary in Oregon though.

 

This is pretty Amusing. So by this logic - shouldn't you be rooting for Obama so you can see McCain in the white house?

 

He should!



Impeach Bush. Sentence Him to Community Service.

In West Virginia.

 

Here is the fundamental problem with the whole "Hillary is better because she wins working class white voters" argument:

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/05/poll_mccain_beats_obama_and_hi.php

Hillary and Obama do similarly bad against McCain in that department. Hillary might be more appealing than Obama in that category, but no more so than McCain. That's why these "who wins the primary is going to do better in that state in the general election" arguments are so stupid.

 

You think it's stupid in regards to West Virginia? I'm surprised.



Impeach Bush. Sentence Him to Community Service.

In West Virginia.

 

If Obama gets the nomination, Hispanic Democrats won't vote in November. That's the truth.

 

Based on what, if you don't mind me asking?



Impeach Bush. Sentence Him to Community Service.

In West Virginia.

 

T_J, now that you've returned to the thread, can I have my apology, or at least an admission that you misread my post?

kthx

 

Agreed -- this will help the Republicans in a big way.

 

Why, may I ask?

 

Yes, we know the republicans will get the racist vote.