Still waiting on Harden post ups. The only thing missing in his game. Can bully ball most guards down low when the shots aren't falling
Its not a joke …. to be an assist , the ball has to go thru the hole. Everybody shoots 100% on assisted shots.
I did some number crunching because I'm bored. I'm not drawing any conclusions from it. In the 2017-2018 regular season, the Rockets had 34/82 = 41.5% games with >= 45 3PA. They won 29/34 = 85.2% of those games. Of the 48/82 = 58.5% games with < 45 3PA, they won 36/45 = 75.0% of those games. In the 2018-2019 regular season, the Rockets had 41/82 = 50.0% games with >= 45 3PA. They won 28/41 = 68.3% of those games. Of the 41/82 = 50.0% games with < 45 3PA, they won 25/41 = 75.0% of those games. One other fact from 2018-2019: There were four games with >= 60 3PA including one game with an astonishing 70. (The most 3PA in any games in 2017-2018 was 57 twice.) They won 3/4 of those games, losing the game with 70 3PA. They shot 32.9% from three in that game.
**** nevermind, i just realized LMAO I kinda thought they were including the potentially assisted attempts as well.
This is like saying an NFL team wins more when they run more, when obviously they're going to be passing a higher % of the time when they're down (while running a higher % than normal when up).
Thanks, OP, seems to be a useful stat. Good catch. There definitely seems to be a point of diminishing returns with threes.
For sure. If you're forcing yourself to shoot 45+ threes as a mediocre shooting team, there will be quite a lot of really bad, low percentage shots mixed in. I'm talking shots that don't even generate .500 PPP (a contested step-back three by Westbrook? just an example) edit: lol nevermind, just checked NBA.com, Westbrook is actually 3/5 (60%) on stepback threes this season, but you get my point.
Others have pointed this out, but the doubling Harden at the half court line is effective because he becomes a sulking player when he is not able to initiate the offense. We can’t just rely on the other four guys to hit outside shots, because the variance is too high for regular season results. We need more plays where someone other than James crosses the halfcourt line to initiate the offense. Eventually we can do some creative screening to get the ball into Harden’s hands in non 1 vs 2 situations. If we don’t figure this out in the regular season then it’s going to kill us in the postseason.
On the surface Rockets splits don’t reflect it: wins/losses https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/HOU/2020/splits/ FGA’s are 90.8 (in wins) and 92.3 (in losses) 3PA’s are 44.6 (in wins) and 46.6 (in losses) FTA’s are 26.3 (in wins) and 28.4 (in losses) ORB’s are 11.1 (in wins) and 11.2 (in losses) TRB’s are 46.9 (in wins) and 48.1 (in losses) Ast’s are 21.5 (in wins) and 21.6 (in losses) Stl’s are 8.5 (in wins) and 8.2 (in losses) blks are 5.1 (in wins) and 4.5 (in losses) TOV’s are 14.3 (in wins) and 15.3 (in losses) Pts are different: 123.0 (in wins) and 112.6 (in losses) Opponents summary: numbers are close with exception to: Difference in about 5 more TRB in Rockets losses Difference in about 5 more ast’s in Rockets losses Over 2 stls more during Rockets losses about 3 more blks when Rockets lose Opponents score 111.0 (during Rockets wins) and 121.8 pts (during Rockets losses) May be digging too deep OP unnecessarily....should we shoot less FT’s and get about 2 fewer TRB’s as well?
We definitely need another smart playmaker who understands what the defense is giving and how to exploit it.
Over past three years, Rockets have done better than their record when shooting 45+ threes. So, it's certainly not proof of diminishing returns as a general analytic. So, either the stat will adjust, or this is something specific to this year's team ... likely Westbrook. But at that point, is it just a Westbrook v Paul stat. A lot of ppl are saying WB should shoot less threes.
I'd really like to know what they were thinking when they made it... Can't wait for the media to use it incorrectly
This is one of those stupid stats they have In Football where “X” team runs the ball 20 times they win 80% of the time. ...because teams that are leading run the ball more. Its likely the same is true here.
