umm bc 20 win turnaround seasons aren't common, especially without a star and team core of kids still. yes if this team built as is, suddenly became a .500 team it would be a historic turnaround based on everything already mentioned
I would say the average most improved team every year is around 15 games. So 20 would be +5 from an average year. 20 doesn't make any all time lists either. The Rockets have 2 guys going into their third year with expectations to make the star jump and 2 competent vets with both high level defense and one high level floor general capabilities along with upgrading from a tanking coaching staff to a coaching staff that was in the NBA finals a couple of seasons ago. Obviously everything could go wrong. Green and Sengun stagnates. Dylan Brooks forces his way into taking 17 shots a game. FVV's floor general skills has no impact. So on and so forth.
22-60 = 26.8% 42-40 = 51.2% Would be a +24.4% difference in win % According to this : http://mcubed.net/nba/bwimp.shtml 26.9% increase is the 23rd biggest all time. 21.9% increase was the biggest last season. Looking at those teams and trying to find similarities with our situation. Denver in 04 increased 31.7% adding rookie Melo, vet PG Andre Miller and getting a mostly healthy season from Camby that they didn’t get the year before. Probably missing another one you could say is similar to our situation, but most these massive jumps just don’t come from teams like ours. We will see.
So it would be around the 30th highest jump in NBA history? Yes I'm sure there is one team out of the 30 that resembles our situation. 30th all time is not historic. It would just be the most improved for the season.
Yeah I found one that I thought to be pretty similar and pointed it out. And said I wouldn’t be surprised if you dig deep you could find another of those top 30 teams who somewhat resembles our situation. Fact remains a top 30 jump in winning % happens about once every 2+ years on average. And of those top 30 biggest jumps the majority, by a big margin, are teams in situations nothing like ours. So the likelihood of a team like ours making a jump as big as some are hoping(expecting) is pretty low. Possible, but pretty unlikely.
I mean I am describing the best case scenario. In a earlier comment I said our range is so wide due to so much uncertainty. I said something like 25-44 wins where 44 would be the best possible scenario if everything exceeds expectations. Like if we severely underestimated how bad the previous coaching staff is it could result in a surprising number of wins. And it just might be the case given how much more well coached the summer league roster is. Last summer league was Josh Christopher iso ball.
It depends on if the new guys can carry Sengun enough [but srsly. I was told last year in multiple threads that this was a play-in team. Every season people list our depth chart over and over as an intrinsic reason why win total X will happen. It turns out that it's more important to be better than other teams than it is to be better than last season's team to get more wins.]
Sorry, we don't do that around here. Taking into account the internal improvement or roster changes for other teams is forbidden. Instead, we operate under the assumption that every other team is remaining static even though deep down we all know that's not true. Then when our inflated predictions don't come true during the season we cope with it NOT by reflecting on where we miscalculated along the way, but by lashing out at one another over things that are relatively inconsequential. This is the way.
You are confusing seeding with wins. We can barely miss play in and still win 40 games for example. If the bottom teams are epic punching bags or the Eastern Conference becomes worse for example. People don't remember that 43 win season where they missed the playoffs?
Do you know how hard it is to double your win tally? We added some older players but come on... Just setting up yourself for failure with those expectations.
35 wins would be a huge improvement. Probably not the best case scenario. Best case is both Sengun and Green hit and become all-star level players and FVV and Brooks changes the entire defensive culture with Ime.
40 games is doable imo, we were tanking the past 3 yrs doing our version of The Process so the team looked a lot worse than they really are. Like how many losses were due to just playing Nix 30 mins a night? Secondly we need to factor in brick brigade and Jabari Smith. Jabari is my fav on this team but tbh he was basically a PF version of Nix his rookie year, his defense was bad and he couldn't shoot straight but was jacking up 10+ shots a night. So looking at Jabari having cleaned up his shot and the brick brigade being replaced with 35% shooters I think the Rox efficiency and offense is gonna be a lot better. Finally is the coaching, maybe Silas was dealt a raw hand but Ime is gonna put up a good system and request good defense and accountability on everyone. Not sure if the Rox can make the playoffs but if they make the play in I think that's already mission accomplished.
Didn't OKC go from getting Harden as the 3rd pick to WCF his rookie year or something like that? While I don't expect anything that drastic we should expect a similar uptick with vets FVV and Brooks subbing for 3rd year KD and 2nd year WB.
