We need to talk about Sengun's offense this season

I have been saying that Alpi is not a guy that is going to get that much better, he has been a pro since like 15, he is about at his peak.......

The only way he gets appreciably better is adding a 3pt shot.

He is what he is, a very good NBA player, and sometimes all star, he is not a Jokic.

DD

 

Does anyone think that losing Tiago Splitter as an assistant may have had a negative effect on Sengun's game? I was under the impression that he worked a lot with Alperen when he was here.

 

Not crafty enough to fake them out? Are we watching the same guy? His problem is that he is crafty enough to fake them out, but then misses the shot anyway after he shakes the defender. Getting "good" looks has not been his problem, his moves and his footwork constantly lead to good looks. I've just never seen a player blow as many easy shots/layups/dunks as Sengun.

 

I agree with this, he missed a lot more of his close in shots than usual this season, and then that midrange/free throw line he just shouldn't shoot because he's awful at that range.

 

Basically, the NBA has gotten more physical in the past year and a half, and NBA players are really good at pushing players as much as they can without getting called for too many fouls. Stars can still get some calls. Bigs just don't get the slight shove in the back or side called as fouls.

I think Sengun starts his shooting motion often before the contact such the contact throws off his shots around the basket. Here's a play where Draymond makes sure he makes sure the contact with the defender happens before he actually makes his shooting motion (contrary to what GS media said). Sengun probably needs to get better at holding ball through contact like Draymond here and then shooting minus the dirty contact.

 

You're talking like Sabonis was way behind Sengun at 22. He wasn't. By his third year in the league, he was already making noise, coming off the bench, sure, but behind Myles Turner and Thad Young, two legit NBA starters. And still, he finished second in Sixth Man of the Year voting. The Pacers were rolling, top-three in defense, and Sabonis held his own defensively. Why? Because he was surrounded by smart, tough defenders. Sound familiar?

At 22, Sabonis was hitting a true shooting mark of 63%. Sengun? He’s at 54.5%. That’s an enormous gap. Sabonis was also better from three and on the boards. He had a stronger Win Share per 48, too.

So this idea that Sengun’s ceiling is way beyond Sabonis? Let’s be real. That’s wishful thinking wrapped in hype.

 

There may be a couple other metrics that are good in the public sphere, but EPM is easy to get data.

Sabonis was about as far behind Sengun at 22 as Sengun is to Jokic. Granted, the difference between Sengun and Sabonis is mostly defense.

 

This is a funny/sad visualization, showing that both peak Sengun and peak Sabonis are worse than rookie Jokic.

 

Sengun spent all of last off season bulking up. That inevitably messes with your shot and touch. Now that he’s increased his baseline strength, he can go back to working on his shot and touch this offseason.

 

Most teams were flat out letting him shoot from the FT line, because they were confident he would miss them. I also noticed on his shots closer to the rim, he is not shooting he is just throwing up the ball with no wrist involved hoping it bounces in. He continues to make fakes when they have already given him the shot. Those fakes are totally ineffective. If he doesn’t develop at least a decent mid-range shot he is history as far as a star. He is not physically dominant enough to be only a low post player. I do trust his work ethic and believe he will continue to improve on his weaknesses.

He also suffers from the lack of a decent offensive head coach. The whole roster plays around with the ball rather than initiating the offense in the first few seconds after crossing the half-court line. Other than the FVV/Sengun pick and roll nobody knows what they are supposed to do in the half-court offense. Part of it is a lack of outside shooters, although part of that is on the coach since he all but neuters Jabari in the offense and numbed the development of Reed and Cam who both are good shooters.

In short, Sengun needs to improve his shooting. The coach needs to open up the offense or find somebody that can help him and actually give that assistant the power to effect change. The rotation needs to be tweaked to provide better outside shooting and/or provide another PG

 

For all the changes he has made, there is a lot of overreaction to one season.

HOF that gets compared to Sengun by many.

Middie 10-17 ft: 37% at age 24.
Overall FG% from age 24 to 27: 50%, 51%, 53%


Keep in mind as someone who kept track of Sengun's Midrange. It was at 49% the week of AS break. It ended up at 39%. For a center, midrange is 10-17ft. always has. Why did it drop so heavily? (not an actual question. Real ones know.) Which is why I always joke go train in Denver.


It will be well served if some of you guys could look up the midrange % of your favorite bigs their first 6 years. You'd be surprised.
Would people say Dirk was a master of the mid range? 47% at 25yrs old.


Sengun just has to eliminate the three and the off balance put shot.

 

I think we can agree to disagree on Sabonis vs Sengun. I believe that Alpi will end up having a better pro career, and a demonstrably better one. And Sabonis has been a fantastic player for the majority of his career. In a couple of years we'll have our answer.

 

Sengun should rebuild his shooting from the ground up. More legs and core for power instead of upper body. That should soften his shot. It’ll take work but it’s been done before.

 

Thanks for the data.

It seems biggest change on YoY 24/25 on 10-16 range efficiency. As the number of shots increase in that range, efficiency plummets double digit percentage. Although, weight of those shots vs total FGs not that high.

Also, % of FG Ast'd dropped significantly. Fred gotta do better.

In any case, I agree with the poster who suggested he can say goodbye to being a star if he doesn't fix his shooting touch. Don't be a one trick pony, Alpi. Come back your range extended, please.

 

Please don't waste another offseason training with the rockets staff. Go with a reputable trainer. They supposedly worked hard on your shot and only saw you shoot one 3 pointer all season and you refused to shoot open midrange against the warriors. Your post game also got worse

 

It's a chart of another made up "metric," it does little beyond push the narrative of the person who created the formula to reinforce their own bias. This is the formula:

EPM has two main components: 1) a statistical plus-minus (SPM) model that uses highly optimized stats (estimated skills) to estimate a player's contribution per 100 possessions, and 2) a regularized adjusted plus-minus (RAPM) calculation which captures impact beyond the stats. Step 1 serves as a jumping off point for the final calculation in step 2, making EPM a Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus (RAPM) calculation with a Statistical Plus-Minus (SPM) Bayesian prior. More information on each of these methods is below.

It says right there it's all based on estimates, not actual statistics. The problem is that because Morey was our GM everybody and their grandma believes made up "metrics" have more value than actual concrete statistics/numbers - guess what? An estimate can never have more value/accuracy than the real number, it's just a lot of waffle for people to make themselves sound clever and prove their "method" of evaluating which players are better than others. It's not even based on real numbers like things like TS% are.

 

I like Sengun but I can not stand his no jump shot and or his push shot with zero confidence. Shoot it with your chest brah.

 

His looks will get A LOT cleaner with shooters around him, but some of his finishing against GS and his hesitancy to take an open 10 footer was not great. Definitely needs to make the midrange a weapon to set up his post game more.

 

Scola can teach him alot. I just wish someone has a brain to tell him that.