We all agree that Harden makes his teammates better and Westbrick makes his worse, right?

well we just gave a 33 yr old a 4 year 160M contract... so there's that...

 

Not much of a positive to that either in two years

 

This is a leap... I guarantee you teams would have lined up to give Melo the MLE... thing is, he got bought out and was picking his next destination based on his desire - not $$$ - so teams didn't try to acquire him... Do you honestly believe we just happened to be the only team interested?!?
I dont tthink you're understanding what's happening with our acquisition of Melo... this is a gift to us bc this is where he wants to play - not a last resort...

 

I agree I'm wary of the later years as well... but like Morey said last year - you gotta make some 'high risk' moves pass the GSW...
Melo is not a high risk move - he's a very low risk move - with a good potential for high returns...

Melo is a gift. He is joining us for a fraction of what he could get on the open market... I don't know why people are looking at this like its some sort of gamble or we were the only team willing to risk bringing him in...
Again, this is a gift... some people just arent understanding this... If we were ponying up a long term contract for 10M or 20M a year, then the concerns have some validity... but we aint... we're getting the guy for the min... gift people...gift...

 

I'm not arguing that. I'm just not expecting much. You have to take the chance with Melo.

 

I mean, this is somewhat hyperbolic the other way.

Which teams would have lined up? Obviously, any two teams can make a line, so as long as there were two - which sure, there would have been - you'd be right.

But who exactly were you thinking?

 

I'm thinking there may be 1 or 2 teams that would straight up pass... due to posturing or figuring its 1 year and then he's gonna want real money - so no sense in disrupting their development of their younger players for 1 year of Melo... but make no mistake, Melo for the min (or even MLE) is far below market value...
Melo has 27.9M in his pocket and is picking where he wants to play - with an eye towards his next contract in a year... if you notice all the teams Melo was linked to as potential destinations were all the upper tier teams - cause everybody knew the criteria of what he was looking for - a contender that he could be an integral part of....
Do you honestly think that Bron wouldn't want the Lakers to pony up the min to add Melo?
He's getting 'end of the bench money'...this is a sweetheart deal so he could pick his destination - not his only option...

 

I mean, the Lakers could get Melo now. And it'd probably be 50/50 as to which team he'd pick. So that's still an option... if it was an option. But its not an option, because, yes, I honestly think Lebron doesn't want Melo on that Lakers squad.

Why would he?

I heard the Celtics name brought up once, a year+ ago, but ultimately they weren't really interested.

So you seem to be implying that MOST teams would be happy to sign him for vet minimum or MLE. Is that right? Cause I completely disagree. I'm not saying there wouldn't be 5 or 6 teams really interested, but most teams?? No way. Why would bottom feeder teams want him at all? They wouldn't. Any team that realistically isn't in the playoff picture would pass. Then an number of top teams would pass... just based on what happened last year. GSW wouldn't add him. Celtics, no. Raptors, no. Sixers... maybe, but I suspect not. OKC obviously not. Blazers... maybe. NOP... maybe. Jazz, I don't think Dennis Lindsey would want him. TWolves, no... they already have better younger versions of him and that's clashing with the coach and Butler. Maybe a Nuggets or Clippers. Maybe a Bucks...

It's a tough one, because the last few years have not been kind to Melo as far as impact to winning in today's NBA.

Houston makes sense PRECISELY because of CP3.

 

There's no point discussing this, but of course I think no one was interested in offering him the MLE. And I think he would've signed with Miami if they offered it. That's not a contender, there's no reason to consider them.

 

When they had to give up assets to obtain him and pay him 27.9M this year...

Agree to disagree... cause I think the VAST MAJORITY of teams would be yippy skippy to add Melo... at the min or MLE
It's a no risk option... He's getting the min - if he's disruptive - you send him home - no loss... min contract is nothing....
Theoretically, if Melo had chosen another team and was headed someplace else... and the people on that board were having this discussion... it'd be 'Houston wouldn't be interested - MDA and Melo hate each other...'
Bottom feeder teams? They would be all over signing Melo... that's just the kind of move a low level team would make to bring in a middling/former marquee player to get some sort of excitement out of its fan base with little expenditure... It'd be a flop bc he would be expected to be a superstar nightly... but def the kind a move a struggling exec would make to create some buzz and excitement...

 

He can STILL sign with the Celtics for the vets minimum...

Are you saying that if Melo said "Celtics, I want to join you", they'd say "sign right up!".

Cause, of course, the answer to that is absolutely not. They're overcrowded at PF and wanting to shed salary cap. Whether Melo might or might not be of value at the vet minimum isn't the question or debate, but rather its even given that whether a team or team's would want to sign him.

I don't think Melo sells tickets, lol. Bottom feeder team fanbases are more likely to puke over such a move than get excited about it. You think the Suns, Hawks or Magic fanbase, hardcore or casual, would be like "hell yeah, let's buy some tickets now!" Of course not. They'd instead be like: "why? aren't we trying to develop our young guys??"

And there's always a risk. The risk is (i) chemistry, and (ii) opportunity cost. If you don't believe (i) is a risk, you didn't watch the OKC last year. Or the Rockets with Dwight and Harden. If you don't believe (ii) is a risk, then you didn't even read my comments on the Celtics above, or the Lakers this year - in that again, it might be of value, but not of so much value that it outweighs the opportunity to have other players that are better options.

It works with Houston because a bunch of things lined up. CP3 principally. Need for a forward secondarily.

 

Westbrook's situation reminds of Francis a bit. Uber athletic 2 masquerading as a point guard that if he's your franchise player, is good enough to keep you afloat but you're not truly competing for anything.

Wait..Is PG his Mobley?

 

Melo shooting 51% TS is better than the 0% Ts Ariza and Luc had during the 4rth quarter. Look, humans can't be defined by statistics and numbers. No model would have predicted JR Smith being a hero during the Cav's last title run and being dumb as **** during the Finals last year.

As I already said, systems will all break down in the playoffs and everything will become a shitfest. We need a guy like Melo to supply the X factor. If he doesnt work we cut him at the trade deadline no harm done. The point is we should keep an open mind to the possibilities who would have thought 3Za would be 2x the player Parsons is at half the cost?

 

Let's see what the overall opinion is...

http://bbs.clutchfans.net/index.php...lue-at-the-beginning-of-the-offseason.292724/

 

It's not about defining humans by statistics and numbers. Its about using statistics and numbers as a part of the equation to better inform an opinion. If you don't agree with that you're basically throwing aside 20+ years of sports analytics trending that way, plus effectively every stat ever used in sports... which goes back to the beginning.

People never respond about classic stats in this way, it's just more advanced stuff where there is still pushback for some reason, even though most of the advanced stats aren't complicated at all once you understand what they are and their strengths and limitations.

More directly to respond to this with these examples.... pretty much EVERY model would have told you about JR Smith EXACTLY what he is. WILDLY INCONSISTENT, prone to hot shooting, and poor bball iq, depending on the day, week and month.

Most models wouldn't have had Ariza at 0-12 in a game 7, but most models would have had him averaging out to what he averaged out. And as INSANE Ariza's 0-12 was (0-9 from three), you won't find to many BBSers who are like "never would have expected that from Ariza, he's such a valuable scorer!!". I mean you wouldn't expect it from anyone on any NBA team, much less one in a game 7 of the WCF against a truly historic team, but I'm not shocked that Ariza didn't pull through or anything.

In fact wildly inconsistent three point shooting is part and parcel to who the Rockets were, and who Ariza was. He was never quite as bad as 0-9 from three, but he had multiple 1-9 3 point games, a 1-8, an 0-8, etc.

This has been one of my pet peeve flaws about DM's approach. He had been going for unpredictability to an extent, because he knew/thought he just couldn't outt-talent the Warriors, and better to have the potential to go 20-45 from three even if it meant the potential to also go 10-50. I think he's perhaps changed this approach again based on last year to maybe you can't out-talent them but if you get closer and then just play supremely on point, consistent, tough nosed, switching defense, combined with their stylistic approach, there's a shot.

Which I think he should double down on... Melo is a reversion to the opposite... but that's ok, too.... because I don't necessarily think the prior approach was completely flawed, just cross your fingers and hope for that 20-45 the next time we're close... after all, it is VERY hard to out-talent or outscheme these GSWers.

 

How do you expect anything else from a top 5 offensive player of all time? Of course he's gonna cross fatty unmotivated OKC Melo. You think Melo is gonna put the clamps down on him?

Wait till we see Melo in shape.

 

As I said in a different thread...

Since last summer, Melo has let it be known publicly that he wanted to come to Houston. Everyone in the league knew he'd end up a Rocket, one way or another. So if you're an interested GM, do you make an offer and tie up your entire off-season waiting for a response, when it's not likely to happen in the first place, and in the process let other valuable pieces sign elsewhere? Or do you focus your attention on FAs who might actually want to play for your team?

Seriously, nobody will ever convince me that the same exact number of teams would want Dwight Effin' Howard on their roster as would want Melo.

 

That's actually a good point. Why didn't they? If I were Melo and wanted to prove to the world I could still ball with the best of them, I'd probably look at LeBron and the Lakers. I'd probably have more chances of getting more shots and scoring opportunities than with the Rockets.

 

Melo doesn't really fit the potential-ruined-by-a-lack-of-brains direction Magic/Pelinka have apparently decided to pursue, post-LeBron signing.

 

I think, as with virtually all FA's, you leak a story that you're rumored to be interested. Or Melo's agent would at least show off about the interest.

I don't think anyone was interested in Melo's production vs Dwight Howard-like presence.