With all due respect, if the main criteria for a #1 overall draft pick is "paint banging and 3 point shot", then maybe a revision of the criteria is in order?? You've essentially just described Daniel Theiss... Let's have a look at that with the later pick... or just pick up Thomas Bryant in free agency or something...
Any of the 3 bigs would be great. I also really like Ivey and Griffen so if we fell out of the top 3 it won’t destroy me…although it will make passing on Jarrett Allen and Mobley all the more painful.
Jalen Duren and Keegan Murray taking huge strides makes the lottery luck stress a lot less. Should get a Duren v Chet matchup in round 2.
Right now, I’m going Holmgren, Smith, Ivey, Banchero in that order. I’m most confident that what Jabari Smith does will translate to the NBA. He’s the Safest pick with the least bust potential, but Chet Holmgren is a 1 of 1 player so there are more question marks, but his upside is so intriguing. I’m Ivey over Banchero right now. I know he doesn’t seem to fit a position of absolute need, but a Green/Ivey backcourt is must see TV. He can be a star. Sort out the rest of the roster later.
I still think Chet is the player I’d take at number 1, but between Jabari, Ivey and Banchero I’d be thrilled with any of those guys. I’d prefer the bigs considering our team makeup but Ivey has the talent where he could end up the best player of the bunch. I’m just hoping for a top 4 pick and then let the chips fall where they may.
Chet/Gonzaga will play Georgia State in the 1st round They’ll play the winner of Boise State/Memphis if they advance. Paolo/Griffin/Duke will play CSU Fullerton in the 1st round They’ll play the winner of Michigan State/Davidson if they advance. Jaden/Purdue will play Yale in the 1st round They’ll play the winner of Texas/Virginia Tech if they advance. Jabari/Auburn will play Jacksonville State in the 1st round They’ll play the winner of USC/Miami if they advance. Murray/Iowa will play Richmond in the 1st round They’ll play the winner of Providence/South Dakota State if they advance.
Duren looks like he could break Chet in two, this would be a good test of Chet’s physicality. I’m skeptical he’s got the muscle to prosper in the paint once he is a pro.
I think you can’t go wrong with either Chet or Jabari. If I could choose it would be Jabari. A 6-10 forward that can hit the three at over 40% and defend, sounds tailormade for this team. At to that his athleticism and he could blossom to a superstar. Now Chet scares me. To me he looks like an injury waiting to happen. He will get bullied around, and I would actually let him guard the opposing 4 (and Sengu the 5) on most nights. But he could turn into the best player of the league, without even having to have the ball in his hands. He shoots lights out, he can dribble, he can pass - he dominates the paint on defense and is great at help defense. And it seems like he is smart, driven and mature! So without the injury concerns and with 20 pounds more muscle he would be a grandslam. Like it is I would be ecstatic with him but also horrified…
Holmgren's frame DOES warrant a cause for concern but how much SHOULD a team worry if they take him? NBA bigs nowadays operate further and further away from the paint that physicality down there isn't what it was 10 or 20 years ago. Looking at the highest rated centers this season (I just used fivethirtyeight's WAR because it's fast/easy), you have these guys as your top 10 and the % of FGs they take 0-3 from the basket this year. Jokic (27%) Embiid (23%) Gobert (74%) Allen (62%) Sabonis (43%) Poeltl (45%) Horford (16%) KAT (33%) Adams (70%) Adebayo (40%) The one dimensional bigs on offense like the Goberts, Allens, Adams, etc of the world will score by either getting lob passes or put backs. Chet is a legit 7 footer with standing reach close to what Gobert's is (9' 9"). On most nights he'll have the height and reach advantage to disrupt any rolling lob passes or alter the shots of these guys. These guys aren't going to back him down on the post. The multi-talented bigs could post Chet up and make it a long night for him but look at it this way--these guys generate their offense all over the court. Jokic, Embiid, and KAT can go from the paint and beyond. That being said, Holmgren's lateral quickness might not be enough to cover smaller players but for bigs it should be more than adequate. If you can make life harder out on the perimeter for any of those 3 guys (which generates anywhere from 20% to 30% of their total offense) that's a huge accomplishment. Not saying Holmgren's frame isn't risky but I don't know if it's all that concerning given how he's been able to not only block shots at a high rate but also rebound (almost 10 a game) against guys bigger than him too. Like Shawn Bradley averaged 5 blocks a game but couldn't even get to 10 rebounds a night at BYU.
Wouldn’t teams try to isolate him with the pick n roll? He will change/block a lot of shots but if teams can draw him out of the paint he might be neutralized pretty effectively. Holmgren is the biggest gamble of this draft, that Shawn Bradley physique is almost a red flag on using a top 2 pick on him. Although his skill set reminds one of Ralph Sampson so if we get the 2nd pick again the debate on here will make the Green/Mobley battle look tame by comparison.
He is at his best free lancing, including on the perimeter. He gets a lot of blocks outside the paint. Teams in college have tried isolating him without a lot of success because while he lacks the first step of guards, he has an excellent second step and body control... his standing reach of like 9'7" allows him to punish players that get around him. He is at least 7'1" and has a wingspan of 7'6" as of last summer, but at Gonzaga they claim he is even longer than that. His physique is something that has to be mentioned and is some degree of a concern but the league is a lot different than when Shawn Bradley played. Players are not allowed to be as physical as before and a lot of action is away from the rim. I would like him to be 30 lbs heavier as well, but I think he will get bigger and stronger with time. He is never going to weigh more than maybe 220 lbs and that is fine IMO. He is a lot like Garnett is that he is wire strong. Will he be bumped inside by Jokic and Embiid sometimes? Yes, but who isn't? Also they have to cover him on the other end and that will be impossible for someone like Jokic. Chet also can play 4 easily when he needs to. My concerns with him are not talent related but more about his ball handling and his knees handling how mobile he is.
I think Chet is quicker laterally than people think. He's no gazelle obviously but his length and awareness will still make it hard for guards/wings to drive on him in a PnR situation. If we're talking about PnR situations where he gets isolated against a Curry or Dame or Harden...well....he's most likely toast but most bigs are anyways. Even Gobert gets roasted out there in the 3 point area.
Ivey's quickness, speed, toughness and he is a very emotional player....he reminds me of Westbrook alot. His play translate to the NBA and having Ivey, Green and Porter would be crazy but we would have a team with no size.....we kinda need Chet
My concern with Chet , is , who can he guard in the nba ? will he excel due to his measurables like gobert ? Gobert was taken 27 . he brings some offensive game as well it seems . But , it looks like his value is going to be leaning on the defensive side . I don’t really like what I’ve seen from Jabari either . But man is his shot sweet . im probably leaning him at this point . But , imo Barnes and mobley were better big men prospects . This year .. Jabari has the higher ceiling due to shot maybe ... or Chet has it due to pretty incredible size . I think Sampson is a better comparison to mobley .. but mobley is even more fluid . Chet reminds be a bit of giannis . But Chet has a less athletic and more hunched over posture . GIannis was smaller and grew later. he is good as basketball . He’s better at basketball than Jabari . We don’t have a particularly good track record of developing healthy bigs . Not many teams do . I’d rather go with Jabari . I kinda don’t wanna pick at 1 this year lol . But if I’m there the pick is Jabari . I just think the shot is so valuable . Unsurprisingly I also like sengun a lot and like the fit better. Though Chet is a better defensive fit with sengun . jabari will have to develop as a rin protector, help, and overall defender. Jabari brings unlimited potential to the offense. Especially if green / porter / Christopher continue to improve . sengun and Jabari frontcourt .. that’s a pretty sick setup . I think we want to move Wood and Gordon . We went all in on young talent last year. We already have 2 firsts in the draft . Right now we should be in talent hunting mode .
I don't think it's a matter of who can he guard, specifically, but rather how much of an impact he can/will have on the defensive side of the ball. If you're referring to the number of positions he can cover/defend I guess that's a fair question but his primary role on defense is to defend the paint and make the other team work on getting shots over his long reach. We shouldn't expect him to cover the entire court like he's Giannis. He might get to Gobert's level on defense or he might not; that being said, his offensive range/skills is already better than what Gobert has shown since Rudy's entered the league.
This is an excellent post - but perhaps the Shawn Bradley comparison physically is somewhat unfair. Bradley was 275 as a rookie. Chet is 195. Bradley is far broader across the shoulders than Chet - and while Chet has far more aspects to his game, his stature is extraordinarily thin to a degree that we just don't see in the NBA... For me the guy is a hard pass because his frame looks like adding even 20 pounds will be an almost impossible challenge. ((If we draft him, he's my guy!! And hopefully I am way wrong))
