Warner goes Blu! (DOOMED!)

Your completely objective view is much appreciated.

 

lol. I'm not mad. I'm just ranting on Bill for the fun of it. I just couldn't understand some of Bill's thinking on the matter of going with HD DVD. He was all high and mighty acting like he was pro-consumer. Yet, it's not his decision to make. The consumer makes that decision. But, I guess we know there is no way in hell Bill would have ever offered both a Blu Ray and HD DVD drive attachment...because then every Tom, Dick, and Harry would have just said "I'll just buy a PS3 then with the built-in player" and MS would have lost all that business. So, Bill is walking a tightrope regardless of what he says.

Although I only have HD DVD capability on my 360, I'm not really for one format or the other. At this point, there is so much HD content out now that all movies will eventually be shown in HD anyway. Before all this HD content was available now, I was more into the physical media aspect. Now, it's all bleh. I don't even like to buy movies because they just collect dust. I almost exclusively rent movies.

 

What is FUD?

 

fear, uncertainty, and doubt

 

I can't decide if this post is tongue-in-cheek. If it is, then kudos, because it made me smirk (and please disregard the following). If you were actually serious, though, then I'll refer you to your own post two months ago:

 

we all know chow's reputation on this board is THE SONY FANBOY
he's got a VAIO computer, BETAMAX, AIBO, PS2, PS1, PSP, WEGA, and WALKMAN

 

Dude, you're no better as his MS FANBOY foil. I will admit, though, that it brings me great joy to watch you two fight over multinational corporations as though they were your families. You DO know these companies don't love you back, right? RIGHT??

As an aside, I bet a co-worker last summer that Blu-Ray would beat out HD DVD in the format wars. I think it's high time I started a little gloating.

 

are you sure?

I own many Sony products so I'm not a MS fanboy, I've got a PS1, and PS2. I'm just prefer the system where I can play Streetfighter against good competition (xbox1 -sf anniversary, xbox360 -hyperfighting). If Bluray is the winner, i'll buy a player when it goes cheap. look at how cheap dvd players got. plus its not like you can't find HD movies via Cable/satellite or download.

 

Were we all really at the mercy of the 9 million people who bought PS3s in the whole world?

 

It is being used to push Blu-ray heavily, although I don't really think things would be that different had Blu-ray not existed. It would probably be worse actually.

The war would have been over in favor of HD DVD? I doubt that. Probably would have been a stalemate for years, and neither format would really take off.

The easiest-to-find numbers I have right now are some ratios of the top 10 (or sometimes more) movies in a given week, via the Nielsen Videoscan reports. I did a search and found a forum thread that has links to a bunch of weeks:
http://forum.blu-ray.com/showthread.php?t=8608

You can glance through each week report and at least get an idea of how certain movies sold in relation to each other. I recall seeing a report that posted rough sales figures for many of the major HD movies, although it was a while back and I'm not sure how easy it would be to find.

They didn't care just as long as the format war dragged on, meaning neither format would really take off. Guessing they would probably have preferred HD DVD for a numbers of reasons though.

Not necessarily directing this at you since I don't recall your stance on the war 6-12 months ago, but it is funny to see all these people mentioning how digital distribution is the future now that HD DVD is more or less dead. I guess if they thought HD DVD had a chance of winning the war, then it makes sense that they think digital distribution is ready to go mainstream right now.

I think even then, it might be difficult for DD to really catch on. For streaming, you'd probably need a ~2Mb connection, although it would probably need to be even better than that (average DVD bitrate is like 5Mb IIRC). I don't think the average speeds in the US are anywhere near that high, and is probably only doable in a few countries (parts of Europe and Asia mostly IIRC). For reference, it would probably take me over half a day (at least) to download a DVD-quality movie (4GB-9GB) at my apartment in Austin. And at my parents' house? Don't feel like calculating it out, but I wouldn't doubt it if it took a week. You guys basically alluded to this (and HDD sizes), although I just wanted to point out that it probably wouldn't be feasible for even DVD quality video. You also have to factor in that a lot of ISPs have bandwidth caps, so even if a person has a connection capable of streaming DVD quality video, they still may not be able to really use this service. If they tried to watch 5 movies in a month, they'd already use up at least 20GB of bandwidth on just this type of service alone.

Finally, exactly how do you guys expect this service to work? Is there some sort of unified distributor for this type of thing? If you thought it was bad that the industry couldn't agree on a single HD format, try to get them to agree to a single distribution for movies online. Don't think it would be ideal to use a Microsoft service to get some movies (say Paramount and Universal movies), a Amazon service for say Fox/WB/Disney films, a Sony service for just Sony movies (you know they'd do that ), etc. That's way too complicated for the average consumer I'm assuming, and it will probably be one of the bigger hurdles for this type of service (along with the major technical issues already mentioned).

I look forward to this type of service, but it is WAY too early for it right now. Maybe 10-15 years down the line, we can start looking at this more seriously as a legitimate way (and more or less the only way) to distribute movies.

Seems kind of like FUD to me. There are a lot of unhappy HD DVD supporters out there, and it wouldn't surprise me if these reports were 100% false (some of those rumors are pretty strange).

I'm not saying money wasn't exchanged (particularly if WB needed to pay the HD DVD group for backing out of an agreement), but even if it was, it wasn't the deciding factor. If no money was involved, WB would still have a lot to gain from this move (unlike say Paramount/DW when they went HD DVD exclusive).

That doesn't really mean much.

 

dude, Money is ALWAYS the deciding factor.

It does mean something, its means im not really biased except that streetfighter is better than those stupid final fantasy games.

 

all you fools are fooled.

the real war is HD vs non-HD. The cheapskates have no excuses come 2009.
all those clunky non-hd tvs can be donated and given to third world countries so they can watch some tv. have a freaking heart people!

 

Warner going Blu-Ray is a big deal. In the end, who wins the format war is about content. HD DVD is not dead yet. They still have exclusivity with Paramount and Universal. That is some pretty good content, and about 25% of all movies produced in Hollywood.

I have both formats, so it matters not to me who wins. I have enjoyed both of them tremendously.

 

I didn't say money wasn't the deciding factor. I said any money the BDA might have paid WB to be exclusive to Blu-ray was not a deciding factor. By going exclusive to Blu-ray, WB has more to gain in terms of profits than they did by staying neutral (or worse, being exclusive to HD DVD). The potential profits there are probably more than what both sides combined could come up with to "moneyhat" WB.

Of course, some of that good content will probably never appear on HD DVD (EX: Spielberg won't let any of his movies be released exclusively on HD DVD). On the other hand, this is true of some movies from Blu-ray studios too (Lucas probably won't let Star Wars be released until the format war is over...or possibly even longer than that).

I'd be curious to see if Paramount (or even Universal) had any out-clauses with HD DVD. Well, I'm sure they did, but I guess the better question is would they use them.

 

Based on this news today I returned my 360 HD-DVD player that I got for Christmas. I had no problems with Best Buy, they didn't even really look at it.

 

I think most non-hd TVs will work just fine come 2009. The change is to digital not to hd come 2009!

 

i am partial to Sony over Microsoft when it comes to video games, but i don't give a toot about this HD battle.

i usually get baited into making a stupid responses because i'm too straight forward. i'll post what's on my mind rather than rationally thinking about it and replying with a witty remark. in the end, i just make myself look like a rabid fanboy and stupid along the process.

here's something i found.

basically, warner didn't want to be the only studio to jump to hd-dvd exclusively. they had an agreement with another studio to switch to hd-dvd. when the other company got cold feet and left, so did warner. in return, the hd-dvd group postpones their ces press conference.

i was hoping for the rumored 360 megatron version with 120 gigs of space, built in hd-dvd, wifi, hdmi, etc. with warner going blu, i think it would be a bad idea to release this if it was in the works. i think thats something i speculated would be released, but i was wrong.

 

This article was written just before the Warner decision:

A roadmap for ending the high-def format quagmire
Don Reisinger

Can Sony put an end to this war?

How many times over the past few months have you heard that "the worst is over" and the chances of the high-def format war finally coming to a close were increasing by the day? If you haven't heard it at least once, you're probably not reading the right stories.

But with all that going on, the war is officially a quagmire for both sides and the chances of getting out of this quickly are diminishing at an astounding rate. Consider this: as it stands, the Blu-ray camp commands roughly 49 percent DVD market share, while HD DVD is trailing slightly behind. To make matters worse, some reports suggest HD DVD may be gaining strength, although most buyers are sitting out.

So what's really going on with this war? Is there an end in sight? Even better, is there a solution in sight that can finally put this to rest? If you ask me, I think this could be over in a month if the Blu-ray camp follows three steps.

Step 1: Warner

Warner Bros. is, without a doubt, the most important element of ending this quagmire. As I said above, Sony currently commands 49 percent of the DVD market before Warner jumps on board. But with a little coaxing (and financial massaging), Sony could probably get Warner to take its side. If it can succeed in this, most estimates put Blu-ray's share of the DVD market at about 70 percent, while the HD DVD camp is left to flounder.

Now, the biggest issue with this is getting Warner on board. More often than not, Warner's representatives have come out and said that it plans on being neutral until it sees a clear-cut winner emerge. To make matters worse, the company is actually performing relatively well by supporting all three formats (DVD, HD DVD, and Blu-ray), so there is no immediate need to join one side or the other.

As if that wasn't enough, the HD DVD side of the war still harbors support from Paramount Pictures, DreamWorks, and Universal Studios, to name a few, and the chances of any of these companies leaving this format could be difficult without Warner's Blu-ray backing.

Interestingly enough, if Warner would decide on HD DVD because of its cheaper cost of production, the war would officially hit a standstill and the chances of this ending soon are all but over.

Simply put, Sony must do whatever it can to bring Warner aboard. Not only would it give its format a commanding lead in the market, it would almost surely attract other studios to join its side and put an end to this once and for all.

Step 2: Slash prices on all players

Although prices of Blu-ray and HD DVD players are coming down, none have hit the sub-$100 price point long enough to justify a purchase. Worse, most consumers are downright confused and others couldn't care less about the future of HD DVD and Blu-ray.

But with Warner now on board, Sony would need to deal the death blow as soon as possible. Surely it could drop prices on its media, but the most effective solution would be to drop the prices of its players.

Much like its gaming division, Sony should sell its own players at a loss for a while to increase adoption rates. Sound a bit too extreme for an industry that doesn't employ this tactic? Think of the alternative: with so much money invested in this format, Sony currently runs the chance of losing everything if Blu-ray becomes a debacle. At this point, nothing should be left to chance.

As far as I'm concerned, each and every Blu-ray player should hit the magic sub-$100 price point as soon as the deal is inked with Warner. In effect, this will help create two scenarios--people would take notice that more movies are available on Blu-ray and the players are cheaper than (or the same price as) HD DVD hardware. If that's true, what's the impetus for people to buy Toshiba's device?

Step 3: Get in contact with HD DVD's supporters and inform them of the bad news

Once steps one and two are complete, Sony must do everything it can to get in touch with HD DVD's supporters and fill them in on the writing on the wall. After all, once Warner jumps on board and sales start increasing for Blu-ray, what are the chances that these studios want anything to do with HD DVD anyway?

Even better, the deals Sony could make with the other studios would almost surely turn out to be far more lucrative than the Warner deal and it finally completes the ultimate goal--victory.

Believe it or not, this war could be ended sooner than you think. It just all depends on Sony's ability to make sound business decisions. If you ask me, we're probably in for a long one.

http://crave.cnet.com/8301-1_105-9838619-1.html

 

http://www.macrumors.com/2008/01/04/hd-dvd-vs-blu-ray-battle-over-warner-switches-to-blu-ray/