Except that Sosa's season wasn't as good as Roy's, because Sosa was a pitcher who was fortunate to go six innings - which you constantly glossed over - and lo and behold - it ended up being the difference in the playoff game. The problem is that you're extrapolating a great season based on a few good months. Or in Seo's case, a good month. Seo had a good August. That's it. In September, he reverted back to the mediocre pitcher. yes, there is. Seo had a good stretch of games in August - remember this "season" you're talking about was only 14 games for Seo. In September, he went back to the pitcher he always was. It turns out projecting his performance simply into the next month was a bridge too far. Sosa walks way to many batters and has no endurance, meaning he's prone to disaster starts and puts a strain on the bullpen even in his good starts.
So by this standard (100 innings not being enough), no judgements should be made on pitchers before the all-star game. When Clemens had an ERA on about 1.5 or so in June, that meant nothing at that point, becuse he'd only had 15 or so starts? As for Seo, iIn his 14 starts, he gave up more than 3 runs 3 times and never gave up more than 4 runs. In his final 6 starts in September and October, he went: 6 innings, 1 run 5/4 (bad) 6/2 5/4 (bad) 8/3 7/1 Yeah, that's just terrible - only 4 quality starts out of 6. I like how 15 starts isn't a good sample size to judge a player, but September is plenty.
I'm not using September alone to judge him though. I'm maintaining he's the same pitcher he was in his first two years in the league. I have two years of sample size that says Seo is a mediocre pitcher, you have a month that says he isn't.
I bet we trade him when that time comes too. Just as soon as we can kick another farm hand that throws smoke.
1) I watched Jorge Sosa pitch twice this year. He doesn't have command of anything but a fastball consistently. He was incredibly lucky with men on base and the braves announcers harped on that constantly. And no Jae Seo and Jorge Sosa aren't going to suddenly morph into aces. Roy Oswalt has command of two outstanding pitches(fastball/curve) and can mix in a 3rd pitch as necessary. That is why he is an ace, and Sosa/Seo are two middle of the rotation guys who pitched over their heads. You think these guys will duplicate this success next year, which is not likely at all. Also consider that Jorge Sosa didn't have to go around the league multiple times with every hitter having a scouting report on him. In fact, his playoff start was his first ever start vs Houston. The reason he is more comparable to Backe is because both are converted relievers that have above average stuff and command issues. Jorge Sosa was better than Backe this year, but I'd give them similar odds on being pretty similar pitchers from here on out. 2) Carlos Beltran is not in a hitters park anymore. Until 2004 Kaufman Stadium was well above average for hitters, and then it was slightly below the league average. Plus his division is full of big ballparks(harder for the ball to carry as well) in Florida, ATL and washington. Plus Shea can be pitcher friendly at times as well. I think an .850 OPS is a fair bounceback number for a guy who posted a .744 OPS last year.
That's why he'll eventually be traded. He won't be around when it comes time for him to make some big $$$$. Qualls or Wheeler could take his place.
The Mets are getting pretty desperate for bullpen pitching. They just traded Kris Benson to Baltimore for Jorge Julio. Julio is a hard thrower (95+ mph gas) that has extreme control problems. He had one good year in 02 and has sucked for the last 3. I'm not sure if Julio is their answer as a set up man and losing Benson is going to seriously hurt their depth in starting pitching. This was probably a salary related move, but the move wouldn't be needed if it wasn't necessitated by the signing of Wagner and Delgado. I honestly cannot give the Mets a good grade so far this offseason. They've addressed a couple of holes in 1B and Closer, but they've also created a real hole in their SP. While you can count on Pedro to have a pretty good year, I'm not sure if Glavine and Zambrano can keep up their performances considering their high WHIP and if Jae Seo simply had a career year last year. Benson may be the most predictable pitcher on that staff outside of Pedro. You add the questionable SP staff and the atrocious IF defense and this could be a disaster of a season for the Mets IMO.
They have Pedro, Glavine, Heilman, Zambrano, Seo, Trashcel...they traded a #3/#4 pitcher for bullpen help...I dont think they have created such a big hole
That's a decent staff... but there's far too many performance/injury/"average stuff" in there to really consider it a staff of the "elite". First of all, how many people expect Pedro to duplicate his last season, both in terms of performance and health (he wasn't all that healthy to begin with throughout last year). Secondly, Glavine is an above average lefty... but he would have to have a year like Pettite did last year (not even Pettite is going to have that sort of season) to make this an elite staff. The other guys (Zambrano, Heilman, Seo, Trachsel) are the types of guys every single pitching staff around the league has... average-decent stuff, injury problems, inconsistency. The Mets will be a good team next year... but until they put it together on the field, I'm not going to buy into the hype. I refuse to be scared by a team on paper. (just like I refuse to be write-off a weaker team on paper... probably like the Astros will be next year, as they were last year). Intangibles, intangibles, intangibles... the Astros, Braves, Cardinals, and A's always seem to have them... the Mets, Phillies, Cubs, and Orioles are always searching to find them.
i dont disagree......i was just saying how losing benson doesnt really leave a gaping hole because he isnt much different then the rest of the staff
I don't think they necessarily going for "elite staff" though - they are going for good staff, good bullpen, good hitting. Where they are strong is at the bottom of the rotation - maybe thats' not a great design for the playoffs, but it makes it much easier to get there when you don't have a Wandy or Zeke going out there every 5th day. I think they should have kept Benson, though. But ultimately, they added Julio and Wagner to a team that had the #3 ERA in the league last year. As far as Pedro, I thought he would suck last year and that he was done, but he proved me wrong. His last 7 seasons, these are his ERAs: 2.07 1.74 2.39 2.26 2.22 3.90 2.82 Outside of an OK 2004 (where he finally won a WS, oddly enough), there's nothing to suggest he won't be able to stay at that elite level. And he pitched over 200 innings each of the last two years, so he stayed relatively healthy.
I don't think Pedro is washed up... I just don't think he'll have another sub 3.00 ERA season next year. Likewise, I don't think Pettite will have a sub 3.00 ERA, and Clemens won't have a sub 2.00 ERA.... these were just special years for all these pitchers. I'm basing my prediction on Pedro on the fact that he is no longer the 95-97mph fastball-changeup-curve guy that he was before 2003. In 2004, and last year, his fastball consistently topped out at 90-92, and he had a ton of shoulder/nagging injuries. Last year can be somewhat attrributable to the overall suckiness of the NL hitters, and a little extra motivation by Pedro himself to prove us doubters wrong. But, I agree with you... they don't need an elite staff to win a bunch of games... but they've also had better teams (on paper) in the past that have come up way short. I just think this year is no exception... another big budget flop.
I can see that. I'm just not convinced that their moves have been all that bad. They added Pedro and Beltran last year and added about 10-15 wins. They added Delgado and Wagner this year and addressed their two biggest weaknesses (bullpen, offense). Add another 10 wins and they are set. I know you should never bet against Atlanta, but I'd have the Mets as the favorites in the NL East. Plus, with Philly (Wagner, maybe Abreu), Florida (everyone) and Atlanta (Farnsworth, maybe Furcal) all getting weaker so far, that makes them a bigger wildcard threat as well since they won't all be beating each other up out there.
Well, the Mets just might win by default because the East has gotten considerably weaker this year. This is like watching a pissing contest when the wind is blowing against them. Let's see who can get the most of themselves. The Phillies not only lost Wagner, they spent $6 million on Flash Gordon. That is money they could use to re-sign Abreu. If they let Abreu walk because of money, then we can probably chalk the Gordon signing as the worst signing of the year.
Abreu isn't a FA... they want to get rid of him because he has a ridiculous pay-out on the remainder of his contract, and the Phillies don't think its worth it for what they're getting on the field. (and the # of games they're winning, as a result).
Out of curiousity, are there any NL teams outside of the Mets that have improved so far? I haven't really been following the moves too closely, bt seems that some talent is moving to the AL (Beckett, for example) but nothing really moving into the NL.