[Wages of Wins] More of the Same in Houston?

For what it's worth, most of the stat heads out there don't think much of Berri's work or his blog.

 

Interesting. I just posted an older link from wages of wins in the thread about Brooks. From their perspective, AB is waay overrated.

 

Really? Didn't know that. He seems to make a little more sense than Winston, who sometimes seems totally nuts.

 

This was an interesting breakdown and a good read...

 

Interesting article, thanks.

 

interesting but its hard to see how losing Ariza and adding Yao, Miller and Martin from the start of the season would only add 1 win to this team.

it doesnt take into account the effect of one position on the other.

not bad analysis but i do think it is flawed, but good read

 

Is there an article where he performed the same analysis before last season? I bet his numbers would have had us at about 30 wins. Im not buying what he's selling here. I would say Martin and Lee's numbers are jaded because they were previously on terrible teams. Brooks seems low too

 

For last season they predicted more than 40 wins:

http://dberri.wordpress.com/2009/08/13/does-houston-really-have-that-big-of-a-problem/

 

Let the experts continue to underestimate what's going on down here. We do well when the focus isn't on us.

 

It's an interesting read, but am I the only one who thinks it's weird he failed to even mention the existence of Patrick Patterson? I know he isn't expected to play heavy minutes but it wouldn't surprise me at all if he's emerged as a part of our rotation by the second half of the season. And Jared Jeffries is not going to be playng power forward for us at all. There is absolutely no way they'd play him with Iron Man Scola, Hayes, Hill and Patterson all ahead of him. I think it more likely he play back up minutes at small forward behind Battier and Budinger. And of course, all of that is barring a trade involving Batter/Jeffries.

 

Major fail if you ask me. 43 wins - pffffffftt.

 

Thanks for posting, a good read.

Win shares are an interesting tool, but only one of many, not sure you can get an accurate analysis based upon just win shares.

DD

 

And Patterson! :grin: We added an all-star center, vet back up center, all-star shooting guard, quality back up shooting guard, and a lottery pick power forward. All we lost is Trevor Ariza. Kind of crazy.

 

One more win than last season!!! Fail!!!

 

Poor.

Most people do (and should) agree that the Rockets play as a team better than the sum of their individual parts. IMO, because of that you can't use the stats like he is to formulate a projection for this coming season. All you can do is say that we'll be better that that projection.

This was not a good read.

 

There are too many variables to get an accurate prediction using those types of stats...

Didn't Wade have a negative win-share # for the last couple years or something?

http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showpost.php?p=5545391&postcount=19

So, how would you use that to predict this season for the Heat? You couldn't...

 

To compare this team with the team 2 years ago:
PG:
AB improved individually, but not much team impactwise.

Lowry improved some, a slight upgrade.

SG:

A injuried Tmac is reaplaced by Martin and Lee, a big upgrade.

SF:

Battier is getting older, Artest is replaced by Cbud, witch is a big downgrade.

Pf:

Landry is replaced by Hill, a downgrade.


C:

Yao is going to have less minutes, Deke is replaced by Miller, overall a downgrade even if Yao plays the same.

So it's three down grades and two upgrades in 5 positions.

Ariza trade doesn't seem to be good at this point, unless that is a set up for another big trade.

 

That was Wade's stats in 06-07 playoffs, in which he did play poorly.

Advanced stats or not, they should be quoted in proper context.

I am a fan of using WS (and WS/48) to evaluate players, but I'd be more careful to apply WS of past in prediction. I think, among other things, the blog's author

1) underestimates Miller's capability to perform better under Adelman;

2) probably overestimates Yao's recovery process. A more conservative estimate of 0.150 WS/48 for Yao is not unlikely;

3) underestimates Brooks' potential to improve in his 4th season.

With Yao rejoining the roster, I expect a rise from many players' efficiencies. Barring major catastrophe, 43 wins is definitely too low.

 

I strongly disagree with the SF being a big downgrade. While Chase may give up a bit on the defensive end, he more than makes up for it on the offensive end.

As for Landry, it makes more sense that Patterson is replacing him. Hill is just a PF/C experiment on the side.