Sure, if he'd have been willing to take it. And again, we're just coming off one of the all time worst return of investments on a player in regards to Verlander, and this team was still able to contend despite it.... so hopefully history doesn't both repeat itself and all of a sudden become a deterrent to competing.
Well insurance covered most of last year. And they'd probably have a similar policy on file if he has another injury that takes him out for the entire season.
I think it’s fair. I’d of preferred the deal to be for a little less, but given his pedigree he should give you 200 innings and at least a sub 4 ERA. If he shows Cy Young ability to the point to become a FA next year, it’s still a win. But an inning’s eater that can give you a sub 4 ERA is worth the money in today’s MLB market. This type of a deal does not cripple a franchise. However the 8 to 10 year deals can land a franchise in the cellar-dweller for a decade or more.
Yeah, this seems like a less-than-ideal scenario. Unless there were teams out there willing to offer 3+ year deals, it seems like the Astros bid against themselves a bit here. Why not just offer him a 2-yr/$50MM deal - does he really turn that down and is anyone else really offering much more? I know there's been mention of insurance helping cover injuries - but an insurance policy on a 40-yr pitcher coming off TJS is probably not cheap, so that just adds to the cost of the deal, though not officially on payroll. It would be many millions of dollars to insurance that contract. EDIT: That said, I much prefer Verlander over longer contracts to guys like Gausman or Ray with much less of a track record who could easily turn back into 4.00 ERA type pitchers that would be worse than much of our staff.
He had many offers for one year and many offers for multiple years according to the sources. Presumably the Astros had to let him have his cake ($50 million for sure) and eat it to (opt out after 1 year if he's awesome next year. I have to imagine this is what made the deal attractive to him. He had a bunch of suitors.
It’s not an insane deal, and you are right that 8-10 year deals are the ones that truly cripple a franchise, but even 1-2 year deals can have a big negative impact on a franchise if they are big enough and go badly enough. Houston’s inability to add the payroll needed to potentially add an ace at the deadline this year was a direct result of Verlanders dead money. If Verlander gets hurt early in this deal, it means 2 years of having >10% of total payroll totally wasted. That’s not meaningless. I wish the deal didn’t have an opt out or at least had some kind of 2022 innings threshold for the 2nd year to vest. There’s significant downside for Houston and not much upside. Of course if he comes out and repeats 2019 this coming season then the whole deal is worth it no matter what happens in 2023.
Alcantara is young and really good. I'm thinking he will be even better when an Astros defense is behind him and has a better offense to support him. He's got the stuff of an ace. You could do this trade, re-sign Graveman and still probably have the money to add a guy like Marte if you found a trade partner for Odorizzi.
i totally agree with you. The Astros overpaid from what I would have preferred. But for the chance to have your Ace for next season a few seasons removed from a Cy Young award, I think they had some competition to signing him. But with Verlander, I think the rotation will be a lot better.
I agree with you that an 8-10 year deal is more crippling. A 2 year deal is a deal I would be willing to risk for a true ace. The Angels took a risk on Thor and the MB was talking about how dumb that deal was, yet Thor actually threw innings last year JV didn't. So if posters donnt like the Thor deal, they shouldn't like the JV deal. The upside of the deal far outweighs the downside of the deal. IMHO If JV returns to JV of old the Stros are WS favorites. If he gets hurt again then you have to eat his 203 yr and insurance will again cover most of the lost part of the deal. Of course you're back to looking for an ace again, which might still be the case if JV returns to Cy Young form. I just wish Crane had done this extension back in July/August so JV would've pitched in the WS. Even if that only meant JV giving 3-4 solid innings in a couple of starts, I think that would've been enough for the Stros to win another WS.
FWIW, the reason the Thor deal is dumb is that the Angels are likely not contenders in 2022 - they are still several pieces away. They need to be building for the next 2-5 years, so signing a guy to a 1 year deal while costing themselves a draft pick is what made it dumb. If they had signed him to a long-term deal, it might backfire, but it would have been a more rational move on their part. JV wasn't pitching in the WS regardless: Bullpen pitches for scouts are way different than in-game high-stress innings It would have been $33MM for 3-4 innings at best since insurance would have gone away Whether those innings were "solid" would have been a huge questionmark - throwing hard does not equal good pitching Pitching competitively that early could risk re-injury In July/Aug, no one had any idea what JV's health would be in October or November
And for Verlander, I believe his priority is three-fold: Make a respectable income. Please the wife by keeping her at her home. Stay in a winning culture that gives him a shot to win every hear he is here. The only way I see him not taking the 2nd year option is if his body breaks down.
I could see a scenario where Thor/Ohtani stay healthy and they trade for say Castillo and the Angels would be serious contenders. A 2nd Rd pick shouldn't be a deal breaker. I liked the Stros draft last year without their top 2 picks. Agreed, we don't know how things would've turned out. But he couldn't have been much worse than say Framber. I would have liked to have had the chance to see how JV would've done.
The Angels are f@#%ed if they can't win in 2022 or 2023 provided they decide not to trade Trout and/or Ohtani. I don't see them trading Trout or Ohtani (Ohtani maybe at 2023 trade deadline) any time soon.
But the entire team is not going to stay healthy. No team has every aspect that stays healthy. They just had an unprecedented year from Ohtani, and he was healthy for the vast majority of it. The chances of him duplicating that are very low... even if he'd never had health problems before. Rendon/Trout have had their fair share of injuries and while that doesn't mean they're guaranteed to have another one... the odds are there that at least one will go down at some point. In the end, you need to have depth and support and most importantly homegrown low priced stars that can carry the mantle when the higher priced guys are hurt or underproducing. The Angels remind me of the common auction fantasy team that splurges on all the best players... and scrapes from the barrel to fill out the rest of the roster. The only time that team does ok is if everybody stays healthy and plays every game.
This guy is basicly getting paid for winning a world series for them, and being a cy young winner in 19. I guess they cant find a better bench warmer for that price anywhere else, aka coach. Basicly paying him to coach the pitching staff. Waste of money. Well atleast they went to the world series again, and if correa is not back they will be wild card exit. But im hoping im wrong.
