I'm not liking the player's option. I would have preferred it just to be an additional year. If he comes back great, he'll decline the option. If not, he'll accept. Really limits the upside of the deal to one year and opens up downside to two.
Always thought this was a realistic possibility. Seems like everyone assumed he was going to the Tigers. Not so fast... This deal feels a little expensive, but there is high upside to it. I think there is a decent chance he comes back as strong as ever following TJS.
He's pretty much going to be on a year to year deal... very similar to how the Astros handled Clemens in 2004-2005-2006. There's also an in between where he's not elite but he's also still good enough to be in the top half of the rotation, and he very well could end up just taking the option (or Crane works out another option for the following year). Will likely have an innings limit during the regular season... but hopefully is rounding into form in the playoffs. Or he's going to be used for 2 inning stints like the Red Sox used Sale, which didn't help much.
Yeah... it's like they effectively paid him $50M for two bad years, or $25M for one good year. Because if he's exercising the option it's undoubtedly because his comeback flopped. The Astros are basically gambling/betting that he's going to be OK, because if he isn't, it's going to sting very badly. If he's great and walks in 2022 that's fine, but if he stinks it's going to suuuuuuuuuuck. Shoot your shot though. Pitching is a rare commodity and the window is open. All gas no brakes.
Another either/or scenario? There is gray areas for pitchers coming off TJ surgery. And for pitchers who are HOF caliber when healthy, but also 38-39 years old. He may not be dominant... but I highly doubt they're expecting him to flop. The Astros were always going to seek out 1 or 2 year deals for him. If he does well, and is entrenched as a leader in the clubhouse, there will likely be no hesitation for Crane to work something out as he's done now on two separate occasions with him. I am curious to see him being the defacto Strom/father-figure role to this still very young pitching staff. I don't think they're going to go after another elder-statesman pitching coach.
That's the odds, yes. It's unlikely that he falls in that squishy gray zone where both he and the Astros are happy he exercises his player option. That's just the risk you take with POs and why most don't like them.
Its insurance... similar to the insurance that paid for his contract last year. He's already coming off a 2 year $66 million dollar deal here where he only pitched one game. As far as risk mitigation/expectations go, the more likely scenario is that he provides more value going forward vs. the deal he just came off of.
Nah, there is more nuance to this than you are pointing out. Even if he has a good year, he would be 40 to start the 2023 season. It's not unreasonable that he would accept the player option to come back. Hopefully to go for a repeat.
Like I said, you're betting against the odds, but I understand why you would given the circumstances.
I'm guessing most here would have been fine with him accepting the QO. And even though he's not eligible for one next year, I look at it somewhat similarly (with a few more dollars attached). The worst case scenario is always in play (he gets injured again or has just lost it), but given what they're seeing of him now.. and they still know his medicals better than anybody... this front office is not expecting the worst case scenario.l
If the Astros want him on 1 year deals, sign him to one year deals without a player option even if the deal is more expensive per year. I agree there is a good chance (50% +/- 20% or so) he ends up more or less producing a reasonable amount of value for what the Astros pay him whether he takes option or not. There is basically a $25M penalty during 2023 when the Astros likely still have a great chance at a World Series if things go wrong.
We obviously don't know what went on in the negotiations, but I am assuming he would not have taken just a one year deal.
Is there a clause in JV's new contract where if she goes the contract becomes null and void? Asking for a friend.
What would it take to get Bassitt plus Olson do you think? Bassitt has 1 more year left and Olson has 2 more years left. Does that take something like Forest Whitley and Pedro Leon?
Anyone know the details of the option year. Is it another 25 million? So if he gets injured again, we will be essentially paying 110 million for one game over 4 season?
