130 innings is pretty easy to reach, especially for a player like Verlander who's used to 200+. He could get injured in August and still reach 130IP. Or he could suck all season and still easily pitch 130 with a 5.00 ERA. If he's good, he probably declines the option and signs a bigger deal somewhere else. That said, it does protect both parties to an extent. If he's awesome, he gets out. If he's injured early, Astros get out. If he's anything in between, he gets all the control. Maybe better, maybe worse than 2 years outright. But it's unlikely the Astros get 2 good years of Verlander because he's out if his 1st year is good.
Right. 3 possible outcomes: 1. Astros get one good season of Verlander for $25M (pretty good deal for both sides) 2. Astros get one bad season of Verlander for $25M (bad deal for Houston) 3. Astros get 1-2 mediocre/bad/injured season(s) of Verlander for $50M (bad deal for Houston)
Crane made a handshake agreement with JV before he was injured that was basically a player option for as long as he wanted or was able to pitch.
4. Astros get two good seasons of Verlander for $50M. A good deal for both. Perhaps the least likely outcome but you can not just ignore the possibility.
JV/Crane and the Astros have a specific relationship. Crane also has the same connection with Altuve. When Crane wants something, or wants somebody to remain an Astro, he ensures that happens. As long as JV is pitching well, and as long as the team in in contention, I expect Crane to continue to do what it takes to keep JV as an Astro. There was plenty of reasons for JV to not re-sign… and apparently plenty of suitors that were willing to make it worth his while. This wouldn’t happen if there weren’t some mutual feelings there.
5. Astros get one good season out of JV. He declines the option to sign another deal worth more to stay here (likely with another player option on the end).
Only if he is good - which is the point. If he's good, he'll opt-out and take bigger money. If he's not, he'll opt-in. Bascially, there's no way the Astros get "good value" on the 2023 portion of the deal. Maybe that's the tradeoff for getting him for $25MM in year 1, thouhg.
Doesn't sound like he will start the season on time. I think he misses first month. No big deal though I guess.
Spoiler WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. — Justin Verlander is a workhorse. Stiffness, soreness or a baseball season’s other small inconveniences do not deter him. For two full seasons and half of a third, Verlander arrived every fifth day and put the Astros on his back until an elbow injury six innings into the 2020 season. When advised against it, he tried anyway. He tried to rehabilitate for two months before undergoing Tommy John surgery two Octobers ago. Twelve months later, his team sat mired in a harrowing spot. Lance McCullers Jr. missed Houston’s final two postseason series. The starting rotation disintegrated on the sport’s grandest stage. Away from it all, Verlander worked his way back onto a mound. He threw bullpen sessions and felt “pretty damn good.” A thought entered his head that thousands in Houston likely shared. “You’ve got that carrot right in front of you saying ‘I can probably go help these guys,’” Verlander said. “‘I might be able to get some guys out.’” Could he? Sure. He’s Justin Verlander, a man adept at defying age and altering narratives. He threw a showcase for scouts two weeks after the World Series. His four-seam fastball sat in the low to mid-90s, illustrating why an inning or two against the Atlanta Braves seemed at least plausible. Verlander had explored the possibility. He did not have a favorable gut feeling. One of his doctors delivered a more direct opinion. “If you want to go out in a blaze of glory and maybe blow yourself out, by all means go pitch in the World Series,” the physician said, according to Verlander. “But if you want to pitch a few more years like you told me you want to, you’d be an idiot to do that.” “That kind of said all I needed to hear. This is, again, similar to that.” “This” is new territory for Verlander, a fascinating season where he must manage the essence of what makes him heroic. He is a case study for all in the sport to observe, a 39-year-old man managing the aftereffects of major elbow reconstruction. Innings limits are often a must for pitchers in their first season after Tommy John surgery. Giving Verlander one contradicts everything that he epitomizes, but he now resides in uncharted territory. Pitchers often undergo Tommy John surgery in their teens or 20s. According to MLB.com, Verlander is the 10th pitcher to have the operation at age 37 or older and mount a comeback. “I think I’m kind of a case study on this one,” Verlander quipped. Few pitchers understand their arm and body better than Verlander. He’s thrown 2,988 major league innings. He’s finished 200 or more frames in four straight 162-game seasons. Pair the quantity with his quality — a Cy Young Award in 2019 and runner-up in 2018 — and it seems silly to meddle in his already meticulous process. “We’re not taking anything off the table when it comes to Justin Verlander,” general manager James Click said on Sunday. “We’ll obviously have to monitor his workload through the course of the year, but I don’t think we’re going to put a specific number on exactly how much we’re expecting from him.” Verlander long ago discovered a way to maintain his body against the passage of time, but this represents his most difficult test. The ace said he engaged in forthright conversations with Click, owner Jim Crane and head trainer Jeremiah Randall prior to re-signing. Sunday brought an acknowledgment that he may require extra rest or a turn out of the rotation — sincere truths for a man that sometimes functions as a machine. “I know how I’m supposed to feel. I know what I need to do to recover every five days and go through an entire season,” Verlander said. “If I find myself not having the ability to do that … that’s where I need to be extremely honest with myself and them.” “If things start to change and I’m kind of getting behind the eight-ball on inflammation and I’m not quite recovering from start to start like I know I usually do, then I’m going to have to be honest with them and myself and maybe take a blow. But if that doesn't happen, I won’t take myself out of pitching.” The Astros are more than equipped to handle scenarios where Verlander must skip a start or asks for extra rest. They have six other bona fide starters in major league camp, allowing them to easily shift into a six-man rotation. The team could tailor Verlander’s schedule around upcoming off days, too, in an effort to maximize his rest between outings. Neither Click nor Verlander wanted to estimate a realistic innings total for 2022. Verlander’s new contract contains a $25 million player option for 2023 that triggers only if he throws 130 innings this season. Perhaps it could serve as a first benchmark to follow. “I’m not going to try to set an expectation of less innings or do what I’m supposed to do,” Verlander said. “I’m going to go out and try to replicate a normal season for myself and treat myself like I normally do and hope that the muscle memory of 15 years or however many years with 200 innings is still there and I don’t have to have this built-in de-load or (less) innings that a lot of guys have.” “I know myself so well. I know that I’ll grind through almost anything to go out there and pitch 200 innings, but coming off surgery is different than just working through some typical soreness or stiffness I’ve done in the past. This is different than that and I’m going to be smart about it.” Quantity sometimes only matters if the quality matches it. Few ever doubt Verlander’s quality, but such a long layoff can produce qualms for anyone. Baseball’s most compelling case study emerged from his clubhouse at 10:29 a.m. Eastern time to dispel it. Verlander wore the same stern look so many see on days he starts. Intensity is his trademark regardless of surroundings or stakes, be it a World Series appearance or here in his first live batting practice of spring training. Five months ago, the Astros ached for the former. Sunday they settled for the latter. Verlander threw 35 pitches and simulated two innings. He faced a trio of minor league hitters: Roilan Machandy, Rolando Espinosa and Deury Carrasco. Verlander allowed one of them to make contact: a foul tip by Carrasco into the backstop. Verlander said he sat 95-96 mph with his fastball. “(For) a game without fans, that’s probably better than I was in spring trainings of the past,” Verlander said. “I’m hoping that all this work I put in over the last couple years really pays off. It was a lot of work.” Between the minor league at-bats, outfielder Michael Brantley stood in to track some of Verlander’s pitches. The two veterans yelled back and forth about pitch movement and spin. Verlander unleashed an expletive after a slider slipped from his hand and sailed outside to catcher Michael Papierski. The pitcher sometimes shook Papierski off to focus on specific offerings. The crowd around the back field contained more than half of the players in minor league camp, all wanting a glimpse at greatness. Jeff Bagwell and Enos Cabell looked on. Click and manager Dusty Baker watched from a golf cart. The throng of people scattered after Verlander finished. Papierski hugged his pitcher and left to take batting practice. “He hasn’t skipped a beat,” Papierski said.
Why is this the least likely? He’s never had a bad season in Houston. Only concern of his following TJ Surgery would be his velocity..but he’s hitting 98-99 on his fastball
Because if he's good in season #1, he almost certainly declines the option and can get more than $25MM (and more years) in a new contract. Scherzer, for example, signed a 3 year, $130MM contract this year.
