Vecsey: Rockets looking for a PG and a big man on the QT

Rafer's been giving us 14.6 points, 6.2 assists, 3.8 reb, and 1.5 steals per game in 2008. I think his defense has been solid, if not spectacular. He isn't a particularly efficient player (2.7 turnovers, only a 49.7 TS%), but I think that's adequate production from the PG spot. It will be interesting to see if he can sustain it when we start playing the really good teams.

 

this year (most of which was pre-knee injury) he has local minimums (recent low points in his statistical data) in the following categories (and these are only the ones I pay attention to, i'm sure there are more that others track): points per shot, points per minute, free throws generated per fga, free throws made per fgm, rebounds per minute, offensive rebounds per minute, three point %, and blocks per minute, all despite playing less minutes per game than in 06, 04, or 03. I've excluded 05 for obvious reasons.

now, if we want the categories where he is either at his local minimum or very close to it (2nd worst but very close to recent worst) then we can add the following categories: assist to TO ratio, free throws per 3fga, fgm per minute, fga per minute, assists per minute, steals per minute, and turnovers per minute.

so out of the last 3.5 years, he's either at a low point or very close to it in all those categories right now. most of them are effort/energy/hustle categories. that tells me he's not the same player statistically, either. add that to the fact that he's played lazier than ever this year, and i have corroboration of the fact that he is not "as good as ever".

now, lets take it one step further. he's not penetrating as much, and he's playing less minutes, and he's not in traffic as much, and he's playing worse defense, yet his turnovers are up, his assist to turnover ratio is down, his rebounding is down, his points are down, his points per shot are down, his points per minute are down. so if he is conserving energy on the defensive end, its not translating to any sort of increased productivity on the offensive end. if he's playing less minutes, he shouldnt be as tired, he shouldnt be as beaten up, yet he is playing more and more conservatively.

the stats back up the fact that he's just not playing up to his own standards this year. in case, yknow, you couldnt just see that by watching him.

 

A. He is not playing any significant amount fewer minutes. In fact, the past few games, he has played VERY heavy minutes, almost never sitting in the 2nd half. And in fact, even though his shot is not exactly back in full form yet, he appears to have a lot more energy in the past couple games... He just seems a little reluctant to use it effectively on offense right now. Possibly because he recognizes that his team doesn't need him to score 30 every night to win right now. I mean he has played extremely well in road games where Yao has struggled.

B. Pretty much half the season was post-knee-injury. He had the knee injury even before the Detroit game at home, but that was when it got so bad that it started really effecting him. He was putting up about 25 ppg on 45% shooting up to that point IIRC, and that also includes a game or two when he was still recovering from the elbow injury.

C. This may all sound like excuses. I know McGrady hasn't been himself. Yes, he has often played lazy as balls since coming back from the knee injury. But everyone from the coaches, to the players, to he himself were saying that it would be a while before he got back into shape, and I can definitely believe it. Especially since he had (and may still have) such debilitating sicknesses while he was trying to get back. So I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt going into the home stretch of the season.

D. Do we really even need McGrady to dominate the way he used to for us to contend? It's too early to tell, but I'm leaning towards no right now. I think the role he is playing (once he just improves his efficiency a little) is fine, as long as he retains the ability to be aggressive when necessary, and when the defense is disrespecting him.

 

And can Rafer sustain that kinda play in the playoffs when the cards are on the table and teams lock in on your weaknesses. In my eyes it's all about getting past the 1st round of playoffs for this season.

 

pretty much the only hope the rockets have for a nice postseason run is summarized by what you said just now. either tmac has to return to form for when we need him, or the team has to figure out how to succeed with him as more of a facilitator.

i heard through the grapevine that tracy wasn't/isn't actually injured all that badly by the way. its off topic for the sake of this conversation, but its worth noting.

 

We've heard everything under the sun "through the grapevine".

None of us really know how serious anything that happens in the NBA is. But I can't imagine any other reason why McGrady would play so differently during the beginning of the season vs now, unless he just thinks that what he's doing right now is best for the team and/or he's saving himself for a playoff run.

 

well, take it as seriously as you'd like . . .

i'll just say that its not surprising to me that tracy has sabotaged his trade value this year.

back on topic though, i predict a much better second half from him. we'll credit it to his renewed health.

 

Possibly in the last game it was evident that McGrady was nervous about a possible trade and was hesitant at looking good,possibly Alston was being showcased for another potential deal, I wonder at it all!! Possilbly

 

You must also mention that Alston makes many fundamental mistakes in every game and is becoming greedy by forgetting his Point Guard duties.
In the last game he was habitually setting himself up for shots. Will he ever learn? For that matter will Coach A ever learn?

 

What if we trade for Mike Miller, and start:

McGrady
Miller
Battier
Scola
Yao

We have McGrady as the Point forward where he is being the "playmaker" and distributing the ball since that is what he says he wants to do. We get another guy that can create his own shot and can shoot the crap out of the ball in Miller, and now Rafer can be the backup PG coming off the bench. All our problems solved.

 

Heinrich is 100 times better than rafer..
nuff said

 

ya cause Tmac can guard nash, parker, williams, and paul. Plus with the scoring load and the ball handling load he will tire out too fast.

Also having tmac run it means we have 1 less ball handler.

In my oppinion maybe we can move Battier if we get a solid scorer. Most teams would love to have him, his contract is descent, combine it with Snyder and that would allow us to get a player whose contract was at a maximum of 11 million dollars due to the NBA trade rules. I couldn't say specifically who to target, a trade option could be.

Battier, Alston, Snyder, Head, Brooks, 2008 1st round pick,2010 1st round pick for Ben Gordon and Kirk Hinrich (you'd have to add Adrian Griffin to make the money work)

Frankly our 2008 and 2010 picks are not going to help Yao Ming and T-Mac, why not use them for a trade that gives us something back when we need it.

Why would the rockets do this trade? We give up 2 starters, 2 bench players and 2 picks.

We get back Hinrich who has a chance to be the point guard of the future. Tmac can slide back to the 3 spot and Ben Gordon can get the starting job and finally give us a true 3rd scorer. Mike James would have to step up as a back up point guard. Bonzi wells would get more minutes too.

Chicago would do this umm to get the draft picks first and foremost. They need a change. I would expect Battier head and brooks to remain. IT makes alot less sense for chicago but you never kjnow Paxon could have an itch trigger figger,

 

Really, I think Alston has big improve in this season but we don't think he can keep all into the playoff.........................

en, I don't think rocket will have a big interchange~

 

Any trade that moves Alston outta the rotation (or at least cuts his minutes) ... I'm all for! Alston may have a good run here and there, but in the end he is nowhere near good enough to provide a solid contribution to a championship team.
Heinrich, Miller (mike or Andre's ugly contract), Cassell, whoever - just please divert the impeding trainwreck.

 

Rockets needs are big D minded PG (who can shoot) & lock down defensive swing (who can shoot).

Sounds like Hinrich and Artest to me.

It is time to end the McGrady hopefest. Love the guy, but Rockets do not move to next level, competing for championships, with him.

Time to get younger, tougher & more athletic overall as a team.

TRADE:

1) Battier for Artest
*may require giving up either Brooks, Head or Landy (or taking back Kenny, or both)

2) McGrady for Hinrich, Deng, Noah & filler
*may require giving up pick(s)


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If Brooks is given up, need to acquire Bibby

 

Did Rafer steal your girlfriend, or something?

 

need a big man and a pg eh?

isiah thomas has you covered! marbury+curry!
hahaha
j/k

 

Yes he did.
muff sad

 

Actually, I think very few people agree with you on that.

I think we're a backup PG away from being contenders. What are we, 3 games out of 3rd spot?

We don't need changes. Nor do we need to continue winning 17 out of 20 games. We can go 21-10 (I believe) and finish the season with the same number of wins as we did last season.

The way I see it, we need to get Sam Cassell if we want to win this year. Bring him in slowly, have him playing huge minutes off the bench by the end of the reg season.

The only thing we need to change to be a contender right now is to get a player who would play at least 20-25 minutes at PG efficiently. Basically, Rafer is decent, but we need to cut his minutes because he's not capable of focusing for 40 minutes.

 

As is, our team is already saddled with some long (and bad) contracts already. We don't need to handicap ourselves by dealing for more overpriced players just to hopefully put us over the hump.

The key is to add pieces that help without disrupting the chemistry, which right now, is at an all-time high this season.

One trade that I would seriously look at is Mike James, Kirk Snyder and either Luther Head or Chuck Hayes for Delonte West and Kurt Thomas.

West is facing an injury-riddled season and hasn't really found his groove yet, and Seattle has a glut of guards just like us. I'd also take the risk on West cuz he's been a pretty solid player for Boston in previous seasons. This kid can play, no doubt about that.

Essentially, Mike James is an upgrade in talent over any of their point guards, and can score the ball. They might welcome him as a sidekick to Kevin Durant.

Kurt Thomas is supposedly their veteran voice and interior defense, but since they're going with a youth movement, might as well play their young big men and let them develop. Thomas would give us a very solid interior front line of Scola-Landry-Thomas-Yao, and he can also spot Yao minutes at C. The added bonus is that his contract (8 million iirc) is expiring.

Chuck Hayes and Kirk would give them defense and aggressive slashing ability respectively, which would help cover the loss of Thomas and also provide help for Durant, who really likes to shoot more jumpers than really attack the rim.

It's not a perfect win-win trade for both teams. I'd definitely say Thomas and West would help us more than James, Snyder and Chuck/Luther would help them, but Snyder is coming off the books next year. James will genuinely help their scoring and provide a steady hand at point. So they might just do it.