If you liked that you'll love what this guy has to say. <object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/-U9btB8FSPA&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/-U9btB8FSPA&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>
I predict that the result is within 3 points either way, Democrats pick up 15 in the House, and only 4 in the Senate. Dole, Sununu, and even Stevens pull out victories. Culberson wins by 20. Lampson loses by 25. Cornyn wins by less than 5.
OMG!!! That is so weird! I just polled NJ, MI, CA and PA and I came up with the same numbers!! McCain 95% - Obama only 74%!!! The fact that you would even post that ridiculous tape tells all we need to know about where you get your news. You are going to be sorely disappointed Tuesday night. But there's good news too: On Wednesday morning there's going to be a whole new class of 'patriots,' according to your metrics for judging such things. In fact, I am personally inviting you to my house for a hearty round of "Hail to the Chief" to be conducted at sun up on that same day. I expect your dance card will be made free for such a thing around 8:30 EST when you find out your victory party has been cancelled. Email me through the board for directions. TIA.
Wow, really? Right up until you posted that you always seemed so sane. If any of those three win re-election it would be Stevens. He's not the longshot of the three, he's the only one with a chance. And that only because he is from the land of the crazy, Alaska. Dole and Sununu? Really? Even though you have been one of the few Republicans willing to admit it out loud through this cycle, you almost seemed sane until you said that. No. Way.
Regarding OMR's post of the polling before the Clinton/Obama race in NH, I just have to say how hilarious it is that anybody raises the primaries as instructive to what might happen in the general. There are two reasons for this. 1. That Republicans think there is any correlation at all between how Obama does against someone that shares basically his exact platform - which basically reflects the exact values and priorities of most Americans - and how he will do against someone who reflects the opposite platform - a platform that Americans can't wait to reject - is just ****ing hilarious. But it's even juicier for the second reason... 2. Republicans have been trained in this so, sadly, it's no surprise, but... They sadly believe that the Obama/Clinton race helps them because they believe it was about people rejecting Obama. It wasn't. It was about some preferring him and some preferring her - it was about people preferring one or the other to advance a shared agenda that rejected the GOP philosophy that has failed our nation so spectacularly. But GOP supporters have been so thoroughly trained in voting AGAINST people that it's no surprise they get excited about Obama having lost to Hillary. It's no surprise that their strategy is based in people having been rejected. Their whole strategy is based in getting people not to support their ideas but to reject their opponents'. Meanwhile, Obama has been working on giving people a reason to vote FOR him and not just against his opponent. And meanwhile most of the country has been made to believe by the last eight years that the GOP just outright sucks. Now, giving people a reason to vote FOR you and not just AGAINST the other is not necessarily how you win a usual election, one between two lame candidates, but, if you can pull it off, it is how you preside over a sea change. (Reagan did it way back when, Obama's doing it now.) And a sea change is what's coming. In a little less than 48 hours. People get ready.
I am glad you find it amusing. I think you'll find this even more hilarious. First Exit Poll of actual American votes from Israel shows big McCain win [By Tom Gross, National Review Online] Within the last hour, the first exit poll of 817 Americans in Israel, who attended U.S. election voting events in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv on Tuesday evening to vote by absentee ballot, has been released. A startling 76 percent of those polled said that they had voted for John McCain. This contrasts sharply with pre-election polls of American Jews in the U.S., which indicate a strong preference for Obama. The exit poll findings of American voters in Israel are all the more surprising because less than one in four were registered Republicans, and 46% of registered Democrats living in Israel said they had crossed party lines to vote McCain. By contrast, the Republican crossover to Obama was minimal - just 2%. The votes are significant as almost half of the 42,000 registered U.S. voters living in Israel come from key swing states including Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. In the 2000 and 2004 elections, Israel had the third-largest group of American voters abroad, after Canada and Britain. The exit poll was commissioned by Votefromisrael.org, an independent, non-partisan organization dedicated to promoting voter registration and participation amongst American citizens living in Israel.
Interesting, OMR! So, according to your sources, McCain is winning New Jersey, Michigan, Pennsylvania and ISRAEL! And they're tied in California! Gosh. Sounds like a blowout. In that case... TTB? Let's not make it a BBS thing though. I'd hate it if you weren't here to take the medicine. You think McCain will win. I think Obama will. Cool. Let's make this a money thing. $100? $1,000? $10,000? You call it.
I had a dream a month ago that the dems got the 60 in the senate...we will see if my dream was right.
Electoral Vote: Obama 338 -- 200 Mccain. Election called at 11:10 pm Eastern Time. Senate -- Dem 57, GOP 42, Liberman 1.
Fair enough. But lets be clear I don't know if McCain is going to win. I only think he is going to do much better than the polls suggest and that might translate into a victory. I have concerns about OHIO and Florida where Obama has a ground game like never before and if he can get 90% of the left out that might be hard to overcome. But to his disadvantage he doesn't have very good ground support in the blue states he expected to win. Minnesota just reported a 3 point Obama lead that is a major drop and now Hillary is rushing over to Minn to try and save the state. The one thing I feel very confident about is this election will not be a landslide. No 300+ EV wins for Obama. So I will play along with the bet. I promise to donate $100 to clutchfans if McCain loses. I can't afford more than that because if Obama wins I am sure he'll find someway to overtax me and the economy is going in the tank even more. In addition I will come back to this thread and acknowledge my ignorance if Obama gets more than 300 EVs. That's my position
Read this a while ago, OMR, and thought you might find it interesting. I certainly did! Voter registration at highest level since women got the vote The Center for the Study of the American Electorate today released its voter registration figures for this election. The increase was moderate -- 2.5% -- but the result is a record. The center, part of American University, projects that 153.1 million of the country's eligible citizens are now registered to vote. That's 73.5% -- better than the previous high of 72.1% in 1964 and the highest since at least 1920, when women were given the right to vote. Center director Curtis Gans says this is the second straight election with a significant registration increase, coming after a 3% boost in 2004. He says as many as 135 million people -- nearly 65% of those eligible -- could turn out to vote. That would be the highest turnout since 1960. Gans projects Democratic registration will be up 1.4% or 2.9 million this year, while GOP registration will be down 1.5 million. The center said that's a small drop but that it declined at all "in this year of intense citizen interest in the election is significant." Twenty-eight states and the District of Columbia have partisan registration. Based on information so far, the center said, Democratic registration went up significantly in Nevada, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Arizona, New Jersey and Maryland. GOP registration declined in Colorado, Florida and Pennsylvania, but rose in Nevada. http://blogs.usatoday.com/onpolitics/
Yes you are right it is an interesting study. But it doesn't take in consideration the high number of Hillary Clinton Democrats who are still undecided. That could be the difference.
OMR: Israel is not a state or territory of the US and unfortunately has no electoral votes. If it did, it would be +60% pro-Obama. The Americans that live in Israel and CAN vote are mostly registered in California and New York and tend largely toward religious observance (Orthodox and ultra-Orthodox) so unlike the majority of Jews in both the US (who are voting for Obama) and Israelis who aren't US citizens (who can't vote) they do in fact vote GOP straight tickets. In short, it means about as much as polling American hippies in Goa.
Damn fine job Bats. Damn good job A. Ugh. Well, I guess there's still a chance at 60. I should have shut up and let my original post stand. I got too giddy in anticipation.
