My GUESS is if this news is true that pac 12 leadership knew about it. I mean you can't close a deal unless all parties were well aware of the terms which includes specific programs. BUT what kind of deal can they get without USC, UCLA, Colorado and Arizona? Probably a short term one to buy them a few years to see where things go? idk. Bummer. It was such a good conference 10 years ago.
I'm not sure about what conference leadership ever knows at this point given what has transpired over the last 3 years. My guess is that the networks, if they're smart, are drawing up contracts that have contingencies built into them in case of defections (or additions for that matter). This would obviously slow things down a lot as it's just another series of variables to account for. You just have to just wonder... at what point will one school get tired of waiting for offers (either a first one or an acceptable one.. no idea if George K has showed them anything yet) and just say screw it and take the money and terms that are laying out there in the open with the Big 12? Other considerations, how much notice does the PAC require for departure? Is it even possible for a PAC team to get into the Big 12 prior to the 2024-25 football season at this point? Supposedly SDSU's exit fee from the MWC doubles if they announce their departure after June 30th, so I'm guessing we will hear about their invitation here shortly.
The big 12 just has so many mouths to feed. It's so hard to imagine the value of that TV deal going up enough to make up for the revenue loss due to the additional payee but I guess they know what they are doing. It'll be interesting to see where everything is in 10 years.
IIRC the new Big 12 deal includes pro-rata increases for any P5 additions. I'm unsure if that covers both ESPN and FOX though, but I think for sure ESPN. Edit; Yep only ESPN https://awfulannouncing.com/ncaa/bi...-schools-espns-part-of-media-rights-deal.html But the good news is ESPN holds the lion's share of the contract. So, the door is ajar.
Pac-12 schools agree to equal sharing of media-rights revenue, per source: What comes next? By Stewart Mandel 9m ago 10 The 10 remaining Pac-12 schools have agreed to equal sharing of media-rights revenue with performance-based distribution of College Football Playoff revenue as part of a new Grant of Rights deal, a person with knowledge of the language confirmed to The Athletic. Schools are not expected to sign the Grant of Rights until the conference finalizes its next media rights deal, which will take effect in 2024 after USC and UCLA depart for the Big Ten. The anticipated timeline for finalizing that deal has been pushed back several times, most recently with several conference voices saying they expect it to be done in “late spring/early summer.” John Canzano first reported the schools’ agreement on the Grant of Rights language. The TV negotiations, which commissioner George Kliavkoff first began last July, have been closely followed due to the possibility one or more schools might leave for the Big 12 if the terms aren’t deemed sufficient. The Athletic reported last week that Colorado, for one, has been in talks with the Big 12 for several months, with conference sources describing the school as the “more receptive” one to join the league than Arizona, Arizona State or Utah. However, Colorado AD Rick George reiterated in an interview that the school is waiting to see “where (the Pac-12’s) media rights deal lands and where our conference goes.” Sources confirmed to The Athletic last month that ESPN remains involved in the Pac-12’s discussions. The league has been expected for months to sell at least part of its rights to a streaming company like Amazon or Apple. The Athletic’s instant analysis: Why this matters All that truly matters is whether the 10 members actually sign the Grant of Rights, which won’t happen until they approve an as-yet unfinalized media rights deal. But the agreed-upon equal sharing of media revenue is noteworthy. There had been speculation dating to last summer, when Oregon and Washington were being mentioned as possible contenders for further Big Ten expansion, that those schools in particular might be granted a larger share, but that possibility failed to gain traction. A performance-based system involving only College Football Playoff revenue likely appeals to Oregon in particular, given it’s been the conference’s most frequent CFP contender since the advent of the event. How it compares to other conferences No major conference has unequal sharing of media rights revenue, but the ACC recently announced a similar “success incentives” model in which a larger share of CFP and NCAA tournament revenue would go to the schools participating. What comes next? They need to get the TV deal done! First, we thought it would be done by mid-March, which is when Arizona president Robert Robbins told The Athletic he expected something “within the next couple of weeks.” But then in early April, a person with knowledge of the discussions said that timeline was “overly optimistic,” and that “late spring, early summer” was more practical.
Biggest development here is: 1) Merit based revenue sharing 2) Oregon and Washington are on board Otherwise kind of a nothingburger as the GOR is worthless without a media deal, but a routine step in the right direction if nothing else.
We agree if the money is right then we agree. They’ve been working on this for 11 months with their very existence at stake. I don’t doubt their ability to pull this off and save their conference, but goodness how much longer before they do? Maybe a day according to some of the sources.
What I'm wondering is.... are there any unknown as-of-now deadlines for a PAC defector to make a jump? For example, the window to join the Big 12 for the 24-25 season has to be closing very soon, right? If not already closed. I feel like that is the most important things to watch for as we move forward, deadlines. For example, SDSU has a deadline to leave the MWC of June 30th otherwise their exit fee doubles. That's tangible and important to this whole situation. If the 4 corner schools ride out this PAC TV negotiation all the way to the bitter end (Fall into next Spring), what happens if they decide to bail that late? Logistically speaking that seems like a nightmare. Not only that, it would probably really **** up the finalizing of the PAC TV deal in the first place. It feels like for the sake of sanity and clarity something has to give and has to give soon (before the seasons kicks off).
The original Big12 plus some new additions would have been a fun conference. Aggy UT Tech Baylor UH TCU OU Okie Lite Kansas Colorado Nebraska Iowa St Kansas St Missery WVU Cincy
I'm guessing it's when the final final final terms are reached. Word about Colorado leaving has to put some stress on ESPN/Apple/Google that they might have to offer more in the TV deal if they want to keep it all in tact. I'm sure CU is seriously exploring all of their options but that is one advantage to having some programs on the outs. Still sounds more than likely that they are heading to the big 12. However, who ****ing knows.
I think the opposite may be true. Colorado's cold feet would lower the bargaining power of the PAC and surely whatever contract the networks offer would be valid only for the PAC as constituted today (or possibly with SDSU & SMU as carve outs). We keep hearing "we need to see where our deal is" from the leadership.... the fact they're hinting they haven't even been presented a deal and we're 12 months away from expiration is incredible. My best guess as to why? George has seen the offers, and he knows they're terrible. So terrible that if he presented them to the member schools he would have defections immediately. I'm just curious what is the tipping point for one of the PAC members to say "screw it, this has gone on long enough" and just leave without even seeing the deal... because the longer each PAC schools waits to leave, the more painful their hypothetical exits become.
Why would ESPN/Apple/Google pay more to keep the conference in tact? Edit: Saw @DonnyMost addressed this.
Because the conference might not be worth the investment at all if it doesn’t hit a critical point in value. Enough of the existing teams could implode the conference and leave if the deal isn’t good enough. It’s not like the pac 12 members have to accept a deal bc they aren’t bound together. Assuming Colorado makes the pac 12 better then it’s in the tv partners best interest to keep them which could mean hitting a certain monetary payout.
If the conference is not worth the investment, they simply won’t invest into it. TV partners will just walk away as they have been apparently doing already. Why would it be in their best interest to keep a conference together on which they have ZERO interest in? They don’t lose a dime if the conference implodes.
Yeah it's not incumbent upon the buyers to pay enough to keep the product from further degrading. If the value drops, the buyers just walk away, no worse for wear. You can bet that every offer coming in is structured to 1) be only valid for the members as constituted and/or 2) have some type of mechanism to adjust value if there are defections. Again I wonder where the breaking point is with all this. The door to the Big 12 lifeboat is likely indefinitely open, so that probably isn't speeding things up.
Ya if there is no deadline to accept, the prudent thing would be to wait and see what kind of offer they can get in the PAC. It will be interesting to see if or when Yormack starts to apply any pressure.
IMO BY is trying to apply pressure already: https://www.commercialappeal.com/st...s-as-it-eyes-expansion-prospects/70303162007/
