USC vs UT - not impressed with USC

Sam is right. ND is #6 in the human polls, but only #12 in the computer polls, reflecting their SOS. Granted, Charlie Weis has done a tremendous job this year, but let's not pawn them off as world beaters for beating Tennessee, Michigan, or Purdue. They will likely face either Ohio State or Penn State in their bowl game, which doesn't look like a favorable matchup.

 

Nor did USC, but they came within a fortunate fumble of winning that game too. ND is for real this year. Give Weis a month to prep and I wouldn't bet against them.

 

Having a bad day, RM95? Wow, where did this even come from? Get a grip.

Again, wtf??? A lot of USC players are black too, so there goes your theory. Again, no idea where something this absurd came from on your part. Please step away from the computer and cool off for a while.

 

It's funny, the biggest argument for ND is their close loss to USC. And ND played a hell of a game and were way more competitive than I thought they'd be. But to me, a loss is a loss. And taking USC to the limit is not reserved for great teams. Last year, Stanford almost pulled the upset on the Trojans. So did UCLA, Cal, and Oregon State.

 

If you watched them play, you know they are a very good team-- extremely well coached, tremendous QB plays and play hard. They may not be more deserving BCS than some 1 loss team such as Oregon, but we can certainly make a good argument that they they can play with any teams in America, in that sense, they deserve BCS.

 

ND is USC lite, a lot of Offense and no D. when they faced two teams that could hang with them offensively, they lost, both games at home.

 

Um, you're the one who originally brought me up in this thread. You'll only make a bet with someone if someone else does too. That's hilarious. BTW, I'm having a great day playing hookie from work with my beautiful wife.

I'm making fun of your quote in my sig. Keep up.

BTW, I think UT has a very good chance of beating USC. I also think there's an equally good chance of USC beating UT. I'm now rooting for them to beat UCLA because I think that potential Rose Bowl matchup could be one for the ages. I'm not sure why you wanted it from me, but you won't be getting any sig bet. This game will be too close to call. Should be fun.

 

Dakota,

I think the game is too close to call to do a bet without points. Now, if you decide to get delusional again and say Texas is going to win by 18 or more, let me know.

 

Kansas' coach wasn't kidding when he said that he has never seen the size and speed of a team like Texas, and that UT was bringing guys off the bench that other teams would love to start.


bigtexxx,
You seem to think SC will stomp UT. I totally disagree. No sigee thing here. If wagering is permitted on this board, I'll put $$$ on UT straight-up. You up for it?

 

I believe that USC will beat UT, yes. I will put money on it straight up. Name the amount.

 

I am a UT homer. I have seen UT and USC both A LOT this year (and a lot of other Pac 10 and other football). Here are some observations and comments, I am mixed about the outcome of their probable meeting:

*USC's offense is great. It isn't just Bush or Leinart. Their OL blows huge holes, and their WRs and TEs are hard to match up with 1 on 1 too. White is very tough between the tackles. I am not about to say they have a better offense than some of the best Miami teams or the Nebraska (mid 90s I think) juggernuat, but they have weapons everywhere and the most underrated OL.

*USC's offense isn't perfect. They are not that great when pressured. Leinart moves well against average defenses, but he sure can't outrun fast defenses and isn't that good on the run. Great looking offense not used to speed and not having time to throw can look ordinary if not feeble (OU vs LSU suger bowl, Florida versus that NU team team).

*USC has not faced a defense like Texas, nor anyother elite college defense. They havn't faced a Miami, LSU, Penn State, Alabama or Ohio State caliber defense all year. They have not done so in practice either. They will need to make huge adjustments, particularly their OL and blitz pick up. They might be able to, or they might not.

*Major big game coached edge to Carroll. He has been awesume in Bowls lately too. His defense has been flat medicore, but he might have the athletes to be a lot better and he has a lot of time to work on the defense too. This is concerning as a UT fan.

*Texas has A LOT of offensive weapons. Not just Young, but speed and skill in WRs, RBs and TE. Call them a poor mans, younger SC offense. The just might rip apart SC if we are executing well.

*Young and Texas's offense does occasionally throw away plays--miss or not see open guys. They do this more than Leinart or USC does, usually they have been so much better it didn't matter.

*As great as I hear UT's DL is supposed to be, at times they haven't got a ton of pressure. They are going to need pressure.

*Don't count your chickens. UCLA's offense has been smoking at times, they could easily win via shootout on a good day versus SC. That would likely mean LSU or PSU. Texas probably will have an easier time with the Aggies so long as they don't believe that.

*IN SUMMARY. If they played next week, I'd like Texas to win. I can't remember a national championship team with a defense that has been as exploitable as SC's. But there is a lot of time between now and New Year's. If Carroll gets the defense humming and Young doen't throw the ball superbly Texas is in deep trouble. As of now I'll wait for the end of the regular season to pick. I sure hope UCLA wins, because I'd like Texas 4-1 over anyone else, but SC-Texas is probably a toss up.

Finally, forget September, yes UT special teams were horrible versus OSU. Yes ASU almost beat LSU. Very little relevance to right now.

 

Cohen - don't do this. USC is favored by about 6 pts. If you bet on UT on a sportsbetting site, you can get 2:1 odds on UT straight up. It's just a waste of money to bet 1:1, and it's guaranteed money for other guy, because he can bet less money on UT straight up on the other site and make money no matter who wins.

 

Thanks for some actual analysis, Desert Scar. Not that these pissing matches aren't "captivating."

I'm also a huge UT fan, or homer if you want to call it that. Objectively speaking, I think Dominique Byrd and David Thomas could play huge roles in a potential matchup. Both pose serious threats from the TE position that can really affect how a team wants to match up with the dangerous WR's on each squad.

Also, I agree that the one month layoff before a game makes USC extra scary in that sense, even if their D has looked shaky most of the season. I do feel somewhat relieved that Chizik is on the Texas side, but what can be done to neutralize Bush? I'm sure it would come down to turnovers, or one team being able to force the other to kick FG's rather than score TD's. Both teams are gonna put points on the board. Too talented not to.

And I have a feeling Vince would look to run a LOT more with the magnitude of that game. I think it'd be wise if he did this early in the game so SC felt like they had to account for it more. He hasn't run as much recently, but he hasn't had to due to the tremendous protection by the O-line. I think he might try to run more vs. the Aggies this Friday just to remind people about it....

Overall, if it happens, I can't wait! If it doesn't, well, then I'm hoping it's not because Texas dropped a game to the Aggies or a Big 12 North team....

 

Nah, I would be a Texas fan even if I hadn't decided to come here, but it would be because I have lived in Texas and grew up a fan. I was just wondering because I'm pretty sure you're not from Florida, and Miami isn't really one of those likeable teams.

 

Cohen mentioned something i was going to with the missing plays on offense thing. i would say usc's offense is more consistent than ours. but ours is extremely explosive and if it gets on a roll can be hard to stop. we have had lots of TD drives (something like 22) of 4 plays and under this year. and we have had streaks of 5, 6, and 8 consecutive drives with a TD (i think we've done 6 multiple times actually).

we actually have a higher scoring average than usc and have not had to play as many 4th quarters. i think after the kansas game, scoring at the end of the 3rd quarter was like UT 41, usc 36. the yards would probably be closer if we had more close games as well. and just like usc's defense might be underrated b/c they've faced so many good offense, our offense has had to face much higher ranked defenses. i think fresno at #14 is the only top 40 defense usc has faced all year (i think oregon at #48 was tops before that). someone said that a good D has stopped us a little this year, but usc has not faced anyone close to ohio state on defense, and that's not really disputable. whether tosu could stop them, i don't know, but they haven't really been challenged.

i worry a lot about our D against their O obviously. i don't think our D is as shutdown as others think, though it is very good. just like usc hasn't faced any good defenses, we haven't faced many good offenses (ttech and sorta missouri is about it). the way we've let people run to the outside this year scares me to death against bush (though fresno made him look better than we would). our secondary does give me a little confidence against their receivers, but leinart is so accurate and their receivers make so many great catches that we'll have to be amazing to stop them.

however, usc's D will have to be several levels above what they've been to stop us. that performance against fresno won't come close to cutting it.

people keep mentioning our weak schedule, but most of the computers have us ranked #1. since we're both undefeated, it's either b/c our schedule has been harder, or it's been about the same but we've dominated it way more than usc has dominated theirs. no other explanations work. i'd say the latter is most likely.

RIET mentioned in his post that usc's special teams could be a problem for us but usc actually has pretty crappy special teams. i had a hard time believing it when i saw the stats, but after watching the fsu game i believe it. bush had 7 kickoff returns and only had one above average one at 30 yards. his ko return average is ranked about 100th. on punts they're only about 35th. and they don't cover kickoffs well either. plus apparently the kicker isn't that great. and this is stuff usc fans have said, not just horn fans. i'm not sure why they don't like their 9/10 kicker, but apparently carroll doesn't trust him, so i guess he's built that all on short kicks.

i want this game to happen badly. it would be a 34 game streak vs a 19 game streak. a 37-1 qb vs a 29-2 qb. two badass offenses. tons of future nfl stars. my natural pessimism says we'll lose but my logical side says if all i knew about the two teams was the 21 combined games they've played, i'd have UT as the favorite. either way, i want this game to happen and hope we won that's remembered for a long time.

 

Cohen, are you backing out? Going against your word?

I'll go as high as $10,000 on this, since I'm so confident that UT will lose.

The deadline for agreeing will be 10pm tomorrow. Name your amount.

 

Too late, Major has already explained how you can hedge away ALL of your risk if we bet straight-up.

Now that certainly won't teach you anything, will it?

 

You think I didn't already know that? Why do you think I said, "Name the amount" when I responded to you the first time??? Jeez you UT people are always a step behind the Rice folks!

Cohen, you've just gone back on your word. I guess you're just not that confident in your team after all. The betting public agrees with me on this one.

 

Why not bet him against the spread? Or at the 2:1 sportsbook odds? Sounds to me like you're the one that might not be as confident as the betting public.

Not to mention, why would you be hedging your bet if you were so confident?