Whew! I was waiting for an UNBIASED opinion on the game, and it seems we've finally found it!! I'm not gonna talk crap, especially with certain people who comb the headlines and news daily looking for negative stuff about UT, or people who refuse to give Vince Young any credit at all for any of Texas' success. It's beyond laughable that there are certain clowns on this board who refuse to acknowledge that Vince Young is a great QB. He may not be the best ever, or even the best this season if you want to entertain that argument. That point can be made. But to argue that VY is is overrated, or an average QB, is akin to proclaming that the Aggies football team is an up and coming force to be wreckoned with in the Big 12. The teams are very even. If it's a blowout, it's because turnovers become a huge factor for one team or the other. I'm loving that everyone is on USC's jock, though. Will I be loving it after the Rose Bowl? Who knows.... To TJ's point about the D-line. You are correct that teams in the past have run at Robison. I think he's improved, but I don't know how much. We'll see how they handle Bush running on the perimeter. It scares me the most, to be honest. But hopefully, they'll use Huff as a spy, and he'll have ENOUGH speed to handle it. I hope- I don't know for sure. Good tackling will be key, obviously. And Rod Wright was a finalist for the Lombardi trophy, so you may make it sound like Ngata is head and shoulders above him. That's clearly not the case. I agree that Okam might be the best DT with the most pro potential on the Horns. How else can you explain him starting over Dibbles, even though this is Dibbles' senior year? This feels more and more like Miami-Ohio St. of 2002 each and every day. I like that.....You can figure out why. Cat- good point about the underdog record vs. the line in the BCS champ. games. You must be watching ESPN right now, too. People need to realize that lines aren't set strictly on what prognosticators think will happen- they are dictated by betting action, which often can be dictated by how teams are being represented in the media. I know, I know, it's disappointing to think of there being a "sheep" mentality out there amongst the general population....But hey, I know the last time I placed a bet on sports, I didn't exactly have to pass an IQ test, either. All they wanted was money....
I freely admit that I am a big Pac-10 homer. I think there's a lot of Big-12 homers here too. Biases in college football are HUGE compared to pro sports. Most of you probably haven't seen too many Pac-10 games and I admit that I haven't seen too many Big-12 games. So we all naturally think our conference is underrated. And I'm a UCLA alum. 66-3 is the only thing we have. I've been waiting 8 long years for a chance to rub it in to UT fans so please give that one to me. Vince Young is a great QB. Texas is a great team. I just happen to think the USC is better. You're right about the betting lines. Odds makers just want the $$ bet on both sides to equal - and they just collect the juice.
And the 4 spreads that the underdogs not only covered but won with: +12, +10, +6.5, +5.5. Those 4 teams beat the spread by 21, 19, 14, and 13 pts. I guess all of those teams must have played their best game ever and the other teams had their worst game ever.
Using Huff as a spy on Bush is a recipe for disaster. You can't take your strong safety out of coverage to man up on one player, especially considering how often USC uses a 3 WR set. USC's receivers warrant more attention than that. Also, while Huff is fast, he does not have Bush's quickness. Once Bush jukes Huff, then what? Oops, he's 30 yards down field.
Last year our DE's were a huge weakness, and we were consistently burned by RB's to the outside. This year, I still wouldn't say the position comes close to being a strength, but our play at DE this season is far superior to that of last season. We had trouble in the A&M game, so what? One game this year that you and texxx seem to argue every single one of your points. Still though, you're right. Defending runs to the outside will surely be a major concern for the coaching staff, but it has more to do with the quality/style of USC's top running back than the weakness of the Texas D-line. Rod Wright was a Lombardi Finalist, of which there are four, none of whom were Ngata. Doesn't prove much, does it? For all intents and purposes(This game), Wright is just as good as Ngata. The dropoff in quality between our top four DT's is pretty minimal, and that presents another strength. There is no way that Oregon matches our depth at the position. The Texas D-line is widely accepted as one of two top 2 lines in the nation, and Oregon's isn't. I already retracted the vastly superior line, but Texas' line is still better. How about some non-opinion statements? The Texas defense is ranked significantly higher than that of Oregon in every major defensive category, and this is a direct result of their domination of the line of scrimmage. Okay, the second part was an opinion, but it can't be denied. I presented a fair analysis that many would have no contention with. I admit the Oregon line is better than I originally gave it credit for, but it's still not at Texas' level. At least my points are relevant...draft projections...are you serious? If you really want to talk about future careers, the Texas line has at the very least 5 guys who have a future in the NFL(Wright, Dibbles, Okam, Crowder, Orakpo). One award for which there were only three finalists? At least Wright was nominated for a (traditionally) defensive award.
Hmmm.....so you're saying the Heisman trophy winner might be fast, and even "good?" I didn't consider that.....well, perhaps we'd be better off dropping a linebacker to cover those Bush wheel routes, or if they line him up at WR. BRILLIANT!! I know you aren't saying any of those things. What I'm saying is Bush is a hell of a player, and I don't know that Huff has the speed or quickness to keep up with Bush, but who does? I think he might be our best option, though, in that he is fast, he is a good tackler, and he's an incredibly intelligent player. Yeah, Reggie is going to probably bust a few long plays. That's what makes him great. However, hopefully having him accounted for by a great DB will minimize some of that, and maybe Huff can make a big play, like an INT, on a poorly thrown ball to Bush that other players would be left behind in the dust on. Someone has to account for Reggie, and of all our players, I like Huff's chances best. By the way, UT frequently switches Huff to corner, and he's even played down like a linebacker several times this year. So, not necessarily a reason to panic if he's not dropping back deep into coverage on every play. I really hope Texas comes out with a 4-2-5 defense. I think that may be a good way to try to neutralize some of the USC speed, and cover up for Texas' lack of speed at the LB position. The key, then, will be to make sure that they stop the runs up the middle of White with one less linebacker, or run blitz a DB. Regardless, they'll have to do a good job disguising blitzes, and hopefully get some pressure WITHOUT having to blitz so often. Usually, stemming has worked well here and there to draw false starts, or confuse o-lines on their blocking responsibilities. Texas will take anything it can get to force USC into longer yardage situations.
http://rpongett.phpwebhosting.com/uscoffense.html An interesting link if you wanna see someone dissect some USC formations, tendencies, etc. Extremely tedious, but interesting if you are a college football junkie like myself. It'll take a while to digest all that stuff, but it does help me get an even better understanding for the USC offense. I've seen about 4 of their games this year, but it's cool to see "how" they play when the game is still in question.
Can someone please explain to me what's going on in the Peach Bowl right now? I'm confused. LSU was a 7 point underdog. They're currently winning 34-3 in the third quarter... how can this be? I thought it would take LSU playing their absolute best and Miami playing poorly to even give a touchdown underdog a chance? But from watching this game, it appears like the team the oddsmakers labeled a 7-point underdog is simply the better team... surely this can't be possible... can it? And to think, a majority of America (55%) thought Miami would win this game. So, the almighty sportsbetters and a majority of America are wrong, and in a huge way... who could've ever, ever imagined that?
Miami is playing their worst game in years. But, this is setting up nicely for Vegas. All of the underdogs seem to be doing well in the bowls so far. This will implant a false sense of security for people to bet big on Texas and Vegas will rake it in. They must be thrilled with the way things are shaping up.
The twins get together and try to find a way to get under some folk's skin, then they tag-team. Major is a step above in both intellect and maturity, so they're just spinning their wheels.
#1 - While I'm not sure how they did against the spread, favorites won the first 9 bowl games. The upsets have all happened in the last 3 days or so. #2 - Vegas doesn't benefit based on who wins, so I'm not sure where you get the idea they like how its shaping up. Vegas is structured to take a cut of every bet by paying out less than 1:1. They try to move the lines so half the money is on each side. Who wins or loses has no effect on Vegas' profits.
If you are a bookie and 80% of the bets are on Texas.... and USC wins and covers, are you telling me that the bookie isn't making more money in that situation? They only have to pay out on 20% of the bets. When I say Vegas, I mean bookie/sportsbook
LOL. Cohen, let's lay off the personal insults, friend. A step above in intellect? Now that's funny. Quite funny! 100% Wrong, but still funny!
Bookies don't like that kind of risk. If 80% of the bets are coming in on Texas, then they shift the line downward so more bets come in on USC. The ultimate goal is to have half the money on each side of the line. For every $1 you bet, they pay out $0.95 if you win. $1000 on Texas $1000 on USC They take in $2000 and pay out $1950 regardless of the outcome of the game. Whoever wins, the bookie makes $50. That's how the sportsbooks work - they don't want all the money coming in on one side of the line or they have added risk. Bookies make money on the transaction rather than the game itself.
i'm freaking out! i'm about to have to leave work. i seriously can't do anything at this point. anyone else?
If anyone in Austin needs help with their T-mobile phone don't come to me cause I'm not sure I am going to be much of a help today. Hook 'em Horns!!!
Heh... you're requesting that someone else lay off personal attacks? And FWIW, it's no insult to not be as bright or mature as Major. I mean you certainly are above average ... intellect.
Here is a strange situation. I won't put money down either way. Of course I am inclined to root for Texas. All season long I've been pulling for Texas. But an acquaintence I know is dying from cancer. He is a huge USC fan, and his wife believes that he is literally holding on for the game tonight, and has been super excited to watch it. The doctors are a little surprised he's held on this long, and either way isn't expected to live through the week. I feel bad cheering for Texas. I am sure that he wouldn't begrudge me for cheering on my team, but it does feel strange since I know how much this game means to him. I am going to try to pull for Texas, but I guess I will still be happy if they lose. It will be strange watching it either way.
