Well put. The resume of the Astros' success consistently over the last decade speaks volumes. Toronto has done well. Two WS championships, duh! But conssitency of play has been a difficult task for them to duplicate. The Orioles and the Devil Rays though have been worse so the Blue Jays just look average. Not good, not bad just gettin by. Yanks and Red Sox still own that division. That problem for them will no doubt continue for many more years to come.
LOL. Did you really just say that? I think you need a history lesson. Let's look at some stats: Houston Astros (1962-2006) Overall record: 3579-3583 Win %: 0.500 Toronto Blue Jays (1977-2006) Overall record: 2345-2390 Win %: 0.495 Hmmm... the records look pretty similar to me. Here's the big difference: Houston Astros Postseason 9 Playoff appearances 1 Pennant ZERO World Championships Toronto Blue Jays Postseason 5 Playoff appearances 2 Pennants TWO World Championships The only advantage is playoff appearances, but don't forget, the Astros have been around for a lot longer than the Blue Jays. Also, as mentioned before, the Blue Jays play in the toughest division in baseball. It's a lot easier to win the NL West or NL Central than it is to win the AL East. I really don't see how anybody can claim that the Astros are at a higher level as an organization than the Jays, when the team has never even won a Championship. If they are so much better, why hasn't the team won a World Series title, despite being around for fifteen years longer than the Jays? Maybe they will end up re-signing him. It's not like there's a deadline next week or something. Maybe they want a contract-year type of performance from him as they make a playoff run. Maybe they feel the salary that will be freed up by having him leave is more valuable (allowing them to sign a big name free agent or two) than devoting such a large percentage of cash to one player (i.e. the Carlos Delgado situation a few years ago). Maybe they feel he simply is not worth Beltran-type numbers. I'm not JP, so I can't tell you why, but I can tell you one thing for sure. They certainly won't trade him away for less than market value unless the team is mathematically eliminated from playoff contention, and even then it's not a sure thing. Please tell me this is just optimistic homer dreamcasting working here, guys. You folks don't honestly think a deal like this is possible, do you?
If you weren't convinced that winning a world series is an ULTIMATE CRAP SHOOT after this past post-season, I guess you'll never be convinced. Paul Molitor, Joe Carter, and Devon White aren't walking through that door... I'm still taking the Astros organization (with all the heartbreaks, mediocrity, and lack of championships) over the Blue Jays. Once again... stop wasting $55 million on wastes of space, and use that money to retain your good players. Signing AJ Burnett will CRIPPLE that franchise if they're forced to get rid of guys like Wells because of it.
Just to take a step or two back, the proposed deal as it is described is made as part of a move to sign someone else that they could keep long term. For instance if they could sign (not realistic names, just thinking of the best FAs off the top of my head who could possibly play CF) JD Drew or Alfonso Soriano to take his place for a 4 year deal on the cheap (relatively) or perhaps deal some redundant prospects for someone like Carl Crawford. The old adage is 'a bird in hand is worth two in the bush'. If you thought Wells was going to ask for a ton of money, you might try lock in a reasonable replacement for Wells and pick up a couple of guys with very little service towards free agency. I still think it would take another decent young player but for a one year rental two very solid prospects if the Jays can fill the spot with someone else might work out as a net positive for the Jays. The article doesn't suggest that the Jays would start some AA scrub in his place.
I'm a little drunk, but that's undoubtedly true. It's such a crapshoot if you can make the playoffs.. I mean even Yankees Murderers Row couldn't make it past the freakin Tigers. For real...Burnett was a poor signing at that amount of money. They have Chacin, right? I think he's good enough as a #2 in the AL..and with Halladay..they're set. Once they lose Wells, I don't think they can really compete offensively in the AL.
This makes me sick. Do you know why? Because you are using the exact same logic that a Jazz fan would use in arguing that the 90's Jazz were better than the Rockets. Sure, their regular season records during that time were probably a bit better. Sure, Malone and Stockton will go down as two of the best players ever. Sure, the Jazz were a bit more consistent in getting to the playoffs than the Rockets. They even managed to get to the finals. But, despite all that, just like the Astros, they never were able to take home the big prize. Are you saying that the Utah Jazz is a better organization than the Houston Rockets, Nick? Pfffffft. Just like pathetic Jazz fans, until the Astros win a World Series title, you have absolutely nothing to brag about. But it's all just a crap shoot anyway, eh? Keep telling yourself that, bub. If that was true, how were the Jays able to win it all not once, but twice? Lightning doesn't just strike in the same place twice without a rod in place. Are you going to accept my sig bet? Or, is all this bravado just for show and you really don't have faith in your team after all?
You really don't see the baseball playoffs as a crap shoot?? We just had a discussion about this in another thread, recently. The Yankees finish with the best record...get to the playoffs and burn out quickly. The Cardinals and Tigers stumble to the finish line. Cardinals win 83 games out of 162. But they get their starting pitching to kick in for them when the playoffs start, and they win the whole thing. There are so many examples like this in baseball. The World Series has had a wild card team playing in it for more than a few years in a row now. The margins between good and great are much smaller in baseball. Ask the 2001 Mariners who tied the best record of all time...only to go out in the first round. More than any other sport, teams can get hot and put it together. More than any other sport, on any given day any team can beat another. Baseball and basketball are incredibly different sports. From the nuances of the game to the structure of the regular season and playoff scheduling. Making a comparison to the Utah Jazz falls on deaf ears with baseball fans. Regular season success in hoops means tons more in MLB than it does in the NBA. Mostly because the NBA allows in more teams than it rejects from its playoff system...and MLB only allows in 8 of its 30 teams.
Ha ha. I really doubt I'd be hearing this argument if it was the Astros who won back to back championships a while ago.
To address the Burnett signing... I'm not the biggest fan simply because he's such an injury risk. He's a good pitcher when healthy, though. A legit #2 guy behind Halladay. Because of some weird scheduling quirk, I was able to see 7 of Burnett's starts this year (as opposed to 3 of Chacin's and only 1 of Halladay's). The guy is nasty. It's not like AJ is a bad pitcher; he's terrific when everything is clicking. He's known as a power guy, but I think his curve is his best weapon. He's worth the money when healthy. But, I agree it was a huge gamble to have put so much $$$ into him. But you never know. The team could get lucky and he could have a healthy year.
We'd certainly be happy about winning rings. But if you're going to ask me if I'd trade the last 15 years with the Blue Jays, I'd say no a thousand times. There is nothing worse than a summer watching a team playing meaningless baseball from June 1st on. Baseball requires a great deal of luck...players getting hot at the right time.
Hmmm...going from playing in front of 5000 fans in the Dome in the early-mid 90's to finishing 1st or 2nd in the Division in 12 of the last 13 years. No complaints here.
The reason they won't be able to sign Wells is because he's going to be absurdly overpriced. Before this year, he was pretty mediocre the two previous years. He doesn't have a history of improving, and can be expected to have an OPS slightly over 0.800 - not bad, but it's not great either. In fact, Wells' '04 and '05 were very similar to what Biggio put up in '04 and '05, and I don't think anyone would consider that Biggio an offensive superstar. '06 was an aberration for him, not a trend, and even then, he fell off the last two months of the year and looked a lot like the old Wells. Wells is not deserving of Beltran money, and that's what it's rumored he wants. Beltran had across the board better numbers when he signed, and he showed a constant string of improvement for his entire career. Wells has none of that going for him. Until that's hammered into Wells' head (maybe free agency next year), he's going to ask for too much. If Toronto is a smart organization, they won't overpay him.
Also, running an organization in Toronto is a whole different ballgame than running the Astros. In a system where there is one wildcard team and one team in your division has a virtually limitless budget and basically fields an all-star team, you can't just go build a "smart" team for the long-haul - you'll never win consistently, and you have to accept that. Unlike the Astros that are built to win consistently, no team besides that Yankees or Red Sox are going to be able to win in the long-haul in the AL East. The way you have to do it in places like Toronto or Baltimore are to take a lot of risks and hope for a magical season. Take a chance on someone like Burnett (who would have been paid more sans health issues), and hope that he can stay healthy and you can pull off a miracle. More often than not, it's not going to work out, but you have to hope for the best. It sucks, but that's how it is in a division like that.
On paper, I might agree with you that the Jays are the better team. Their offense is certainly more potent. Alex Rios came out of nowhere this year, Troy Glaus gave you your usual power numbers and strikeouts, and Vernon Wells gave you your gold glove defense and great offense. But that team is in complete disarray. Wells publicly voiced his anger at the organization two years ago and had already started to indicate that he wanted out. Then you have John Gibbons, who seems like a nutjob, picking a fight with Ted Lilly and Shea Hillenbrand. That might be the most screwed up clubhouse you'll ever see. If the Astros are the model clubhouse in terms of chemistry and consistency, the Blue Jays are its exact opposite, which is why they'll never win big if they don't clean up. The Astros are a year removed from the world series and with some good moves could get back. The Blue Jays are a team that WILL fall apart if they aren't winning at a high level because that clubhouse is just messed up. And Go Expos. I myself am a former Expos fanboy. Never lived there, but my cousin who got me hooked on baseball, basically made me profess a hidden love for le Expos. I still miss the crappy cavernous wonder they called, Le Stade Olympique
As Max said... we would have love to have won... but I still admit that the Astros were a flawed team in 2005, and a streaky team in 2004 that got hot at the right time. Baseball's playoffs... especially after a team has to play a 162 regular season where all hot streak, slumps, and inconsistencies even out.... are the ultimate crap shoot. Claiming that the Blue Jays are a better organization NOW because they won two titles 15 years ago... especially with how baseball economics have changed more than any other sport... is ridiculous.
You are completely right about Gibbons. I think he is one of the worst managers in all of baseball. I would love to see him get canned so the team can bring in a sensible manager. I think you are being a bit melodramatic in saying that the clubhouse is in complete disarray, though. They all seem to get along fine now that Hillenbrand, who is known as a problem child, is out of there. The incident involving Lilly was just a case of two very competitive guys getting worked up. They both put it behind them and there were no long term consequences afterwards. I agree that Gibbons has to go, though. He plays the percentages way too much, sometimes blatantly ignoring the overall feel of the game. He also just doesn't seem to be a good clubhouse leader. No. The two titles argument was my basis for why the Jays were a better organization over the last decade and a half and in general, not why they are better NOW. The Blue Jays are a better organization NOW because they currently have better players than the Astros, and finished with a better record last year despite playing in a tougher division and having had to deal with significant injuries. I also think they will be better than the Astros next season too, which is why I want to do a sig bet. Come on, Nick. Accept the bet. If the Blue Jays finish with a better record than the Astros next season, you must change your sig to whatever I want for one year. If the Astros have a better record, you get to change mine for a year. If you have faith in your team, you will accept the bet. Otherwise, if you are too afraid to step up, then put a cork in it.
Your argument is flawed. Championships are a poor method of comparing teams in baseball, because baseball playoffs are mostly luck based. Comparing baseball to basketball is stupid. I think that something like 20 out of the last 25 teams to win the NBA championship were either #1 or #2 seeds. Because the baseball playoffs are so unpredictable and luck based, the best way to judge franchises in baseball is consistent regular season success. The Astros are clearly the better franchise when compared to the Blue Jays. DEAL WITH IT
The "championships are meaningless" argument is a pathetic outcry from people whose team has never won the big game. If championships are so random, how were the Jays able to win two years in a row? If luck is such a big factor as you claim, surely a feat like that would be impossible. A big part of being a successful baseball team is knowing when to turn up the intensity and make plays when it counts, without choking. Regular season success is only part of the equation. Winning in the clutch is the other part. The Astros were only able to complete half of the formula while the Jays were able to fully complete it not once, but twice. Therefore, the Blue Jays are clearly the better franchise when compared to the Astros. DEAL WITH THAT
The Expos were an exciting team in the 80s. I loved Dawson and Raines, and you had some good pitchers whose names I can't recall.
