It’s amazing how difficult it is to project prospects even 2-3 years out. Whitley was going to be an ace. Leon was going to be a star in CF. Korey Lee was the answer at catcher. Meanwhile guys like Altuve, Alvarez, Valdez, Diaz came out of seemingly nowhere. It feels like quite the crapshoot, and the Astros have a better development system than most.
I am waiting until Houston’s offseason moves are done before updating the 5 year outlook. But one exercise I’ve done several times over the last year is comparing Houston’s current organizational depth chart against various years from earlier in their current competitive window to see how the individual and total surplus values compare. Yesterday I looked at the current system against the system going into 2016 (the year before their first World Series, when their farm and total organizational surplus value was at/near its peak). I stopped short of going thru the full 180-200 player organizational roster, but figured I’d get a 99% accurate comparison by comparing the 26 man roster (by 2016 pa and ip) along with the top 13 prospects (where there was a grade cutoff in the 2016 MLB.com list). Here’s that mapping: Spoiler: Position player comparison Position players: 2016 : 2025: George Springer : Yordan Alvarez; this is roughly a push, although Yordan is the superior player, he’s also more expensive. Jose Altuve : Altuve; big advantage to 2016 here as Altuve was younger and cheaper. Carlos Correa : Jeremy Pena; big advantage 2016 as Correa was the far superior player and had more control remaining Marwin Gonzalez : Mauricio Dubon; Marwin was to have a monster season that Dubon just isn’t capable of. Evan Gattis : Victor Caratini; close to a push, Gattis was a superior hitter but Caratini has more overall value Colby Rasmus : Taylor Trammell; this is likely to change, Rasmus was a poor performer on a big 1 year contract. Jason Castro : Yainer Diaz; huge advantage 2025 that makes up for some of the difference in the Altuve and Correa. Luis Valbuena : Christian Walker; hard to say Walker has a lot of surplus value as a recent free agent signing, but he’s a superior player to Valbuena, so we will call this a push with that noted. Carlos Gomez : Chas McCormick; I’ll give the nod to Chas here, although both players were coming off a down year, Gomez ended up as one of the worst players in the league in 2016. Jake Marisnick : Jake Meyers; push, very similar players Preston Tucker : Cooper Hummel; subject to change but pretty inconsequential as these players are in a very limited role. Yuli Gurriel : Isaac Paredes; I will give the nod to Paredes, as he’s the superior player, he’s younger, and cheaper than Yuli was. This is the other spot that makes up some of the 2B/SS surplus value gap. Tony Kemp : Jon Singleton; another pretty inconsequential spot, but I will use this to note that the 2025 roster has $19M in dead position player money with Jose Abreu. Overall the position player comparison is pretty close in terms of total surplus value, as differences at C/3B make up for most of the difference at 2B/SS. Spoiler: Pitcher comparison Pitchers: Collin McHugh : Ronel Blanco; this mapping is very subjective but I’d say the advantage here goes to 2025 given how cheap Blanco is and how effective he was last season. Doug Fister : Spencer Arrighetti; huge advantage 2025 as Fister was not good and made a decent salary, while Arrighetti has 6 more years of control and a high ceiling. Mike Fiers : Luis Garcia; I’m assuming Garcia will be healthy, in which case this favors 2025. Dallas Keuchel : Framber Valdez; significant advantage 2016, but only because of remaining control. Chris Devenski : Forrest Whitley; I’ll call this a push, as Devenski had a limited run as a very effective bulk RP while Whitley still has a pretty huge ceiling. Lance McCullers Jr. : Hunter Brown; huge advantage 2025 given the advantage of hindsight, otherwise it’s close but still favors 2025. Ken Giles : Josh Hader; this is tough since Giles was pretty good and much cheaper, but Hader is among the 5 best closers in the league and his contract probably isn’t underwater. We’ll call this a push. Will Harris : Ryan Pressly; advantage 2016 because of $. Scott Feldman : Lance McCullers Jr.; slight advantage 2016, too much uncertainty with McCullers and his contract is underwater, but Feldman wasn’t a very good player in 2016. Luke Gregerson : Bryan Abreu; big advantage 2025 as Abreu is one of the best RP in the league and still has 2 years of cheap control left. Pat Neshek : Tayler Scott; I’m going slight advantage 2025 due to cost. Tony Sipp : Kaleb Ort; I’m calling this a push but I like Houston’s 2025 bullpen depth more than 2016’s, although it’s worth noting here that 2025 has $11M in dead pitcher money with Montero’ contract. Brad Peacock : Hayden Wesneski; another push as id expect them to be similar pitchers, Peacock was underrated as an Astro, but this could look silly if Houston helps Wesneski blossom. Overall I see a pretty big advantage for 2025 given the amount of controllable SP (Brown, Blanco, Arrighetti). On balance I’d say the big league roster has roughly the same amount of total talent and surplus value now as they did in 2016. Spoiler: Farm System comparison Prospects: Alex Bregman : Brice Matthews; huge huge huge advantage 2016 as Bregman was in the conversation for best prospect in all of baseball and Matthews probably ranks in the 80-150 range depending on who is ranking. Kyle Tucker : Kevin Alvarez; huge huge huge advantage 2016, as Tucker was an MLB top 30 prospect and Alvarez is 17 and hasn’t made his pro debut. AJ Reed : Cam Smith; Smith gets the nod although at the time Reed was considered one of the very best pure bet prospects in the minors. Frances Martes : Ryan Forcucci; At the time Martes was one of the best pitching prospects in baseball but I’m cheating a bit using hindsight, who knows if Forcucci will be anything and you could plug any number of high ceiling pitching prospects here and they’re likely to be better big leaguers than Martes was. If we’re doing a true point-in-time analysis then then this is a big advantage 2016. Daz Cameron : Jacob Melton; Melton probably gets the nod here as he’s a firmer top 100 guy than Cameron was. Colin Moran : Walker Janak; some of the shine was off Moran by 2016, and Janak is a recent 1st round pick. David Paulino : Miguel Ullola; Paulino was on some Top 100 lists but Ullola’s stock is rising fast. Joe Musgrove : AJ Blubaugh; Musgrove really wasn’t that highly thought of as a prospect until just before he graduated. Derek Fisher : Zach Dezenzo; I’d say this was a push, Fisher ended up on some top 100 lists but Dezenzo is also very highly regarded by some. Michael Feliz : Jose Fleury; probably slight advantage 2016 but Feliz didn’t contribute much other than being part of the Cole package. Fleury’s stock is rising Albert Abreu : Anderson Brito; Abreu was traded for Brian McCann, Brito has a high ceiling and his stock is rising. JD Davis : Luis Baez; probably a push, similarly valued prospects Tyler White : Shay Whitcomb; another push although I think Whitcomb has higher odds of being a real contributor in the big leagues given his defensive versatility The farm in 2016 was one of the very best in the league if not #1. Outside of the top 2 prospects, I think the 2025 group is a comparable list in terms of total value. Kevin Alvarez probably isn’t the next Kyle Tucker and Brice Matthews isn’t the next Alex Bregman; those 2 comparisons represent the vast majority of the difference in value across this entire exercise. The only other truly consequential prospect not in the top 13 of the 2016 list was Teoscar Hernandez, and he was only consequential for other teams. It’s also worth noting that in 2017 Houston was able to make a franchise altering move by trading Josh Fields for Yordan Alvarez; this comparison is from a year before that happened. So all that is to say, if Houston were somehow able to add 2 MLB Top 30 prospects to their farm system, their present and future would be just as bright (if not brighter) than it was right at the start of this magnificent run.
Well, the surprising point is that it comes down to just a couple players. But those two players are very valuable. If you accept my argument that the total variance comes down to just Bregman and Tucker (as they were in 2016), it’s still a lot. Those 2 players probably represented ~$100M in surplus value at the time and probably provided >$250M in surplus value when it was all said and done. For me there’s 2 takeaways: the 2025 Astros are in pretty good shape, but 2-3 controllable star players can make a huge huge difference.
Ya i had the same thought, maybe it's all doom and gloom but tucker/bregman were top 5 picks who also were massive hits, and those guys don't grow on trees.
Framber trade away from going time traveling to a very good place. We have enough to weather that trade on the mound in the bigs and AAA I believe… do it!
Certainly if you were going to try to draw the shortest path to getting the org back to where it was (or better) 9 years ago, you’d trade Framber for 2 elite prospects, dump Pressly, and sign middling veterans to fill the holes in the OF, SP, and RP. At that point they’d be going into the season with a more competitive big league roster than they had in 2016 with an equal farm system. Of course, a less realistic but preferable path would just be for Houston to develop Brice Matthews and Kevin Alvarez into Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker, then trade Kaleb Ort for the next Yordan Alvarez…
In 5 years, the Dodgers will trade for Soto as the Mets retool and cover half of his salary. JV will still be in the league playing still 10 wins short of 300. The league approves a wheelchair and a sling to be on the mound to help get the ball over the plate. Correa comes back to the Astros for the final year of his contract hoping to vest for the next. Maldy is still playing a handful of games with the new team OKC Tornados. He goes 5-75 AB and still considered by some to be the best catcher in the game. Yordan hits a mammoth homerun into the parking lot, hitting Altuve's car. Their relationship sours as it was a vintage 1982 Honda Civic. They reconcile when Altuve is allowed to play DH for the rest of the season. Bregman is sitting on his porch swing still wondering why he never took that 156/6 deal. Meyers is traded to the Marlins where he puts it all together with a .325 avg, 53 HR and 178 RBI season. He loses the MVP to Maldy.
Seems like it's time to do a Straw for Diaz or Fields for Alvarez trade. I will always be thankful of the job Click did when he made the Straw for Maton, Diaz trade.
McCullers is indeed buried in the H, but comes out "Night of the Living Dead" style to pitch 1 inning in the 2029 World Series (in which the Astros beat the Dodgers 4 games to 1). Coincidentally striking out Soto on 3 pitches. Soto after the WS loss, "Yeah it stings... but $700 million makes it much better"
I feel reasonably confident the Astros are done making major changes to their roster. So here's an updated 5 year outlook for spring 2025: Spoiler: 2025 C: Diaz, Caratini, Salazar; 4 fwar, $7M IF: Walker, Altuve, Pena, Paredes, Dubon, others; 17 fwar, $82M (includes $20M owed to Jose Abreu) OF: Gamel, Meyers, Alvarez, McCormick, others; 9 fwar, $26M SP: Valdez, Blanco, Brown, Garcia, Arrighetti, McCullers, Wesneski, others; 12 fwar, $53M (includes $13M owed to Javier) RP: Hader, Abreu, others; 3 fwar, $42M (includes $17M owed to Pressly and Montero) mlb.com Top 30 Prospects ready: Jacob Melton, Brice Matthews, Zach Dezenzo, Miguel Ullola, AJ Blubaugh, Colton Gordon, Shay Whitcomb, Pedro Leon, Kenedy Corona, Rhett Kouba) Projections: 46 fwar, $209M (26-man total); 89-99 wins Underwater Contracts (#'s are AAV): McCullers ($34M/2yrs), Hader ($76M/4yrs), J. Abreu ($19.5M/1yr), Montero ($11.5M/1yr), Pressly ($5.5M/1yr), Javier ($38.4M/3yrs) Summary: This offseason brought big changes and 2025 will be a gigantic inflection point for the Astros. They have only 1 meaningful pending free agent (Valdez), so if 2025 is successful, the future is bright and the run should continue for the foreseeable future; conversely, they have a below average farm system, so if 2025 is a failure, it could be the start of a swift, long decline requiring a full rebuild. Houston should have $5M-$10M to play with at the deadline, possibly more if they move existing contracts. The Astros should be firmly in contention, but an injury to Yordan Alvarez or Framber Valdez would be devastating, as the lineup and rotation are deep but short on superstars relative to 2017-2022. The farm system could provide midseason upgrades at their weakest positions. Spoiler: 2026 2026: Free Agent Losses: Caratini, Valdez, Gamel MLB.com Top 30 Prospects ready: Cam Smith, Luis Baez, Zach Cole, Jose Fleury, James Hicks, Alimber Santa, Michael Knorr, Ethan Pecko, Pascanel Ferreras, Trey Dombroski Arbitration class: Diaz, Pena, Paredes, McCormick, Dubon, Meyers, Brown, Garcia, Bryan Abreu Projections: 42 fWAR, $190M; 85-100 wins (lower range without spending, upper range if they spend up to the CBT) Underwater contracts: Javier ($25.6M/2yrs), McCullers ($17m/1yr), Hader ($57M/3yrs) Summary: The Astros will drop a lot of dead money and really only lose 1 impact player to free agency (Valdez), but will have a sizable arbitration class. The first half of 2025 will clear up the 2026-2029 picture a lot, as there are too many questions around their controllable big leaguers and the upper levels of their farm system, most of which should be answered early on. The lineup should be fine, especially if they find answers in the OF (which they should between prospects and existing big leaguers). Breakouts/rebounds from their controllable SP are needed, but that could be mitigated by prospects coming up. Spoiler: 2027 Free Agent Losses: McCormick, Dubon, McCullers, Garcia, Bryan Abreu Prospects ready: Walker Janek, Ryan Forcucci, Chase Jaworsky, Jackson Nezuh, Kenni Gomez, Juan Bello, Alonzo Tredwell, Jancel Villarroel, Nehomar Ochoa Jr., others Arbitration class: Diaz, Pena, Paredes, Meyers, Brown, Blanco Projections: 44 fWAR, $175M; 87-102 wins Underwater contracts: Hader ($38M/2yrs) Summary: Offense built around Altuve, Walker, Yordan, Diaz, and (hopefully) prospects that have emerged. Pitching built around Brown, Blanco, Arrighetti, Javier, and Hader. How their current depth SP and prospects develop, along with spending will determine everything, but there’s certainly a path to contention. Spoiler: 2028 Free Agent Losses: Walker, Pena, Paredes, Meyers, Javier Prospects ready: Anderson Brito, many others Arbitration class: Diaz, Brown, Blanco, Arrighetti, others Projections: 37 fWAR, $130M; 80-100 wins Underwater contracts: Hader ($19M/1yr), Altuve ($50M/2yrs) Summary: There are significant losses from the lineup in Walker/Paredes/Pena. The offense will be built around Altuve, Yordan, Diaz, and prospects. Pitching will be built around Brown, Blanco, Arrighetti, Hader, and prospects. Prospects and spending will determine everything. They could have a LOT of available payroll at this point. The good news is that we’ve gotten this far out and are still not projecting Houston to have a losing record. Spoiler: 2029 Losses: Diaz, Alvarez, Brown, Hader Prospects ready: Tons, including a lot who are not even in the system yet Arbitration class: Arrighetti, Blanco, many others Projections: 29 fwar, $68M; 72-98 wins Underwater contracts: Altuve ($25M/1yr) Summary: By this point Altuve, Blanco, and Arrighetti could be the only players we can reasonably project to the roster, and Altuve will be 39 years old. But Altuve is also the only guaranteed contract on the books. So essentially it’s a clean slate and Dana Brown’s drafting/development process (along with any extensions and free agents) will determine if Houston has returned to just another MLB franchise, or if they are still in an unprecedented run of success. It would not surprise me at all if Jim Crane wasn’t even around by this point. A lot has changed in the last 5 months. Gone are Bregman and Tucker and Pressly, arrived are Walker, Paredes, and top prospect Cam Smith. This Astros roster is the most questionable they've fielded since 2015, as they only have 6 good position players and only 2 SP who project for more than 1.5 fwar. The bullpen can reasonably be described as 2 elite arms and not much else. BUT, they have more controllable talent than they did when last season ended, and where they have holes, they also have reasonable hope for pleasant suprises. Their farm system has also significantly improved in the last 5 months, adding Cam Smith, Kevin Alvarez, Juan Bello, and Matthew Lindsey. The next 6 months will be where we find out if Dana Brown is good at his job or not. For all the justified pessimism, I still wouldn't bet on the Astros having a losing record in any of the next 3 seasons. Until we know more, the window is open.
Looking back thru this. 5 years ago I said I could guess 7-8 players on the 26 man roster 5 years in advance. My partial roster in that comment had 5 guys who were among the top 13 in ip or pa, plus Whitley and Urquidy, who were on the 40 man roster. Not bad. I wish I’d submitted a full 26 man prediction. Here’s my current Astros 2029 roster prediction: C Walker Janek 1B TBD Free Agent 2B Brice Matthews SS TBD draft pick 3B Isaac Paredes (extended) RF Cam Smith CF Jacob Melton LF Jose Altuve DH Yordan Alvarez (extended) UT Chase Jaworsky C TBD Free agent 12 Jeron Williams 13 TBD trade SP TBD free agent, TBD trade, Anderson Brito, TBD draft pick, Ethan Pecko, Jose Fleury RP Miguel Ullola, TBD waiver claim, TBD free agent, Jackson Nezuh, TBD draft pick, TBD trade, Yeriel Santos
Wow, you did a deep dive. Thanks, I bet they end up with 4 elite/near elite relievers before the season is over.
