There is something to be said for a player that can perform year in and year out at a high level. And the way the finances in baseball are, those ole reliable players are costing a mint! The way Yordan Alvarez and Yainer Diaz are excelling, they are poised to earn one of those multi hundred million dollar deals. I know Crane is betting on the fact that those types of deals will hinder those teams eventually. And Crane is fully expecting that he will come out ahead eventually. But Crane is expecting his star players to take hundreds of millions of dollars less than what other teams are offering. I thought it was fair that they mutually decided that Tucker and them were no longer in the same parameters on negotiations, I could see the Astros offering 50 million a year for 6 years to Tucker, which is 300 million - but Tucker is going to be expecting a 10-13 year deal in the neighborhood of 520 million (40 million 13 years). Tucker is one of the elite players in baseball, and he’s justified demanding what baseball has determined he should earn. The Cub fans are cheering and celebrating King Tuck! I can see Crane and the Astros being in utter shock of the contract demands of Tuckers camp. To the point it was better to bring in help to shore up the now and the future, and part ways with Tucker. My only problem with the trade is that the Astros only got one prospect out of the bunch. I like all three players but prospects are fickle, they may seem like all-world until they move up a level and they wallow in the land of never good enough. If Smith falters, this trade will look hauntingly bad for the Astros.
There's a scenario where you pay altuve and Yordan ...the rest of the roster is treated like the Rays do. Get three good years out of a good player, trade them for 3 good prospects ..hope one of those turns out to be a player and get three good years out of him and turn him into three good prospects and so on... Our only mistake was not trading Tucker and framber last year. We wanted a year on an early out from the playoffs. We probably could have gotten Suzuki(or something similar) as well had it been two years of Tucker. The likelihood we have 4 consecutive top 5 picks again is probably pretty low(let's hope). We have to charter a course where other teams are not going at this point unless we want to have a 500 million payroll which does not seem likely.
CWS fans just endured the worst season of all time and have like the 10th pick lol. It is very unlikely any team is able to pull off what the Astros did under Luhnow.
I WANT MORE OVERSIZED 8 YEAR CANDYASS OUTLOOKS If they're wrong, then we can always hate the GM or Owner or whover...right?
I don't know about 5 year, but the next 3 years is looking really good if we just sign or trade for at least one of Robert Jr., Teoscor, Santander, or Lowe. Altuve Paredes Alvarez Walker Signed OF Diaz McCormick Dicenzo Pena Framber (extend in 26 when lots of money comes off the books) Brown Arrighetti Blanco, Garcia, Javier, Wesneski, Blubaugh, Ullola, etc. (one or two might get traded) Hader Abreu and whoever. Brown will make it work. World Series contenders in 25, 26, 27
Framber is gone, and absolutely needs to be at current market prices. SP simply can't be counted on to not miss at least 20% of any deal w/ injury.
Reasonable take, but if you sign or trade for one of the forementioned candidates you are obviously going for it in 25. If Framber can't be re-signed we will need to use his money and all the other money coming off the books for his replacement for 26 onward unless one of the minor leaguers turns into a TOR pitcher.
Part of the current issue is the Astros will not get a star in the prime of their careers under the current philosophy. They won't sign stars what they want in years until those players are approaching their mid 30s and looking for shorter deals. They don't have the farm to outbid other teams for those guys. So it's a constant flow of get lucky in the draft or international FA pool or hope to hold off father time.
True it seems, but they have pretty much taken Framber off the table if you believe what has been reported. That signals to me that they are going for it in 2025 and will sign or trade for a good OF. Hope it's Luis Robert Jr. which will set us up nicely for 25, 26, and 27 and is also a bargain financially. With Montero, Pressley, and Abreu coming off the books maybe we get a TOR pitcher with a few years left as a 2nd or 3rd starter and Brown steps up as our ace. I trust our pitching development.
I like the Walker signing., if he can hit 75-90 HR's and produce like a middle of the order bat then this signing is a win. I look at Abreu as an example, he was very productive until his age 37 season. I expect Walker to perform at a high level for the next 3 years. That fact that Walker's a GG level player is a huge upgrade. They've replaced Tucker's bat with Walker and Bregs bat with Parades and the infield defense should be better with Walker at 1B. Lost a GG (Bregman) added a GG (Walker. Lost a very solid OF defense (Tucker) traded for a solid defender (Parades.) Gotta sign a top tier bat in the OF and the Stros will have a better lineup and should be about equal defensively. You think success in the draft and international signings are luck? I disagree with this. It's hard work with a little bit of staying healthy luck.
I won’t update the outlook until I feel like the Astros offseason is complete (I think they have at least 1 and probably 2 meaningful moves left), but I was taking a look at past updates. Here’s what I projected for 2025 on opening day 2022: 2025: Losses: Altuve, Bregman, Pressly (if he doesn't trigger his option) Prospects ready: Gonzalez, Barber, Santos, others Arbitration class: Tucker, Meyers, Alvarez, McCormick, Valdez, Urquidy, Garcia, Javier Projections: 44 fwar, $119M (includes Pressly's $14M) Summary: Losing Altuve and Bregman drops the projection to 85-95 wins, but those 2 also open up $60M in payroll. By this point the Astros would need several current prospects to become stars in order to continue to contend. The rotation will still have Valdez, McCullers, Urquidy, and Garcia. The BP will have Javier, Pressly, and a host of guys who aren't established yet. The projected roster is peppered with potential holes (1B, 2B, 3B, LF, SP), but there should be nearly $100M in available payroll to address whatever the farm can't handle. For now I fully expect the 2025 Astros to contend. So I was right about a few things: The Astros would still be contending. The Astros had about $100M in payroll flexibility from what they had locked in back in 2022. The Astros would need the farm to produce (it did in Hunter Brown and Yainer Diaz). I was also wrong about a lot: War projections were too optimistic. Astros currently project for 45.6 fwar this year and that’s with a nearly maxed out payroll, whereas I had them at 44 at only $119M. Naming which prospects will be breaking in 3+ years in the future is stupid. Alex Santos and Colin Barber have some chance to debut this year but they are extremely unlikely to be the most important prospects that help Houston in 2025.
Good stuff. For the life of me I couldn't remember who "Gonzalez" was. I had to look back at old prospect rankings to find Cristian Gonzalez. Any idea why you chose those guys and not Korey Lee, Pedro Leon, or Forest Whitley? Others? Jeremy Pena was debuting too. It's very interesting to look back and see what our thoughts and hopes were and how they played out. Thanks.
I was projected which prospects would debut THAT year (2025). I had Leon, Lee, Pena, and Whitley all debuting earlier than that.
