I agree this is one of the threads I most enjoy. I love seeing how every new call up, breakout, or trade can effect this.
I am planning to update this in Jan-Feb once we can be reasonably sure Houston’s significant offseason moves are done. I’ve posted on the other thread that the summary of impact of the Tucker trade is a net loss of 1-2 wins in 2025 and a net gain of 1-3 wins/yr over 2026-2032.
Potential typical 2029 lineup. Matthews SS Melton CF Baez DH Smith 3b Dezenzo 1b Whitcomb LF Leon RF Janek C Altuve 2b There is enough potential as well as bust risk there that this could have 6+ guys who are 120 wRC+/OPS+ w/ 25+ HR, or a bunch of 80ish wRC+/OPS+ guys w/ 150 Ks. Could be in a new golden era ( or well into a very long golden era) or it could be the sign of a mediocre team that stopped spending.
I’d put the over under on guys in that lineup in 29 at 3.5 and bet the under. If it hits over the Astros have developed very well and things have gone extremely well on the position side (or they decided they didn’t care and won’t try)
I agree but just for that exercise I really only had options that are currently in the system. Realistically I don't see Yordan, Chas, Meyers, Paredes, or Pena still on this team by 29. I could see either Diaz or Yordan. Not both and likely neither. Yordan, Diaz, and Altuve could all very likely have to be a DH 80-100% of the time by that point so having more than 1 on the roster is a huge risk.
That lineup would make about 40M and that’s which Altuve getting most of it. If you had 4 guys from that lineup playing every day as credible major league guys that means you’d have another 60M to spend to supplement it- so you should be really good. And I got what you were doing. It’s a worthy thought exercize.
Jeff Bagwell would hit the rest of his 300 Homers for another organization if he was 28 yrs old entering FA next year. Red Sox offer him 50 mil a year for 12 years + the GM job. Baseball money is cray
5 years from now many of those guys are in arbitration. Performance in years leading up to that will determine. A couple of those guys could be making $8-12M
What's different about the 5 year outlook today vs yesterday? There's no real forward thinking plan down on Crawford anymore.
Dezenzo and whitcomb would be going into 2nd year of arbitration at the max. Alruve’s contract declines. Pretty sure that’s a 40M tops lineup
