Piggybacking on my WAR tiers from above. Tier 1 (5.0+) = team needs 2+ Tier 2 (3.5-4.9) = team needs 3+ Tier 3 (2.0-3.4) = team needs 3+ Tier 4 (1.0-1.9) = team needs 1+ Tier 5 (0.1-0.9) = team needs 4+ 2025: Tier 1: Tucker, Alvarez Tier 2: Diaz, Altuve, Pena, Meyers Needs 1b, 3b, LF / Tier 3, Tier 3, Tier 4. options: Dubon, McCormick, Loperfido, Cabbage, Singleton, Hummel, Hensley, Kessinger, Hummel, Leon, Whitcomb, Melton, Dezenzo, Wagner. 2026: Lose Tucker Tier 1: Alvarez Tier 2: Diaz. Pena, Meyers Tier 3: Altuve 2027: Tier 1: Alvarez Tier 2: Diaz, Pena Tier 3: Altuve, Meyers 2028: Lose Pena and Meyers Tier 1: Alvarez Tier 2: Diaz Tier 3: Altuve 2029: Lose Alvarez and Diaz Tier 4: Altuve
By 2028, Forrest Whitley becomes S tier and plays both ways- switch hitting and doing it at ohtani levels. We good for another 10 year run.
The biggest issue I see with my findings, is the lack of Tier 1 prospects. The Astros haven't produced a Tier 1 guy since Alvarez/Tucker in 2019. I had hopes for Diaz, but as a DH and part time catcher last year he produced 3.2 bWAR in 377 PAs. That's 5.5 bWAR playing full time. However, with the extra responsibility of being the starting catcher, he has shrunk to a Tier 3 level guy (0.9 bWAR in 347 PAs). Moving forward, I still see him as a Tier 2 but not a Tier 1. I see plenty of likely Tier 2 guys in the system- Melton, Matthews, Baez, Dezenzo, Loperfido, Leon, Whitcomb, etc. But I do not see any Tier 1s. They still could add another level but are all clearly a step down from the top guys of 2015-2019. I think this is why I have decided that finding a conttollable Tier 1 guy who can pair w/ Alvarez once Tucker is gone needs to be a priority (this offseason if not the trade deadline). I think swing for the fences and try to land Robert. I love Vlad and he would be huge this year and next, but doesn't fill the biggest need over the next 5 years.
I've seen the Robert Jr. love in this thread and the trade thread... but truly don't understand it. He had a single season where he hit 5.0WAR (last year). His second highest was 3.6WAR (3 years ago). He'll be 27 years old this season and may not even break the 2.0WAR mark. Why would the Astros hitch their wagon to Robert Jr in prospect cost and capitol when he is likely on the backside of his prime years as an outfielder?
His history is a valid concern. However. 1) 27 is not "the backside of his prime years as an outfielder" His final year of team control is his age 29 season, so the entirety of his contract is within his prime. 2) As for "he may not even break the 2.0 mark", he has 1.4 bWAR in 179 PAs. That's 5.1 over 648 PAs (162g × 4). Still, he is on pace for nearly 3.5 even missing 1/3 of the season. 3) He has averaged 5.5 bWAR per 162 games in his career. 4) He has a career OPS of 850 and .738 is his career worst ( as a 22 yr old rookie during COVID) 5) He plays for the most miserable organization with no talent around him to help him produce. Fewer runs, RBI, and productive out opportunities. 6) it's gotta be tough playing for the White Sox.
Deadline will have a big impact on the outlook, but a reasonable 2029 projection: SS Matthews 2B Altuve DH Alvarez LF Baez 1B Diaz RF Melton 3B Dezenzo C Janek CF Loperfido Bench: Whitcomb, Salazar, Cabbage, Leon SP: Brown, Blanco, Bloss, Blubaugh, Arrighetti RP: Dubin, Santos, Santa, Tredwell, Ullola, Scott, Forcucci, Taylor Haven’t dug in yet but I think that roster would project for 35-45 war which is 85-95 wins and would have a ton of payroll flexibility with only Altuve and Alvarez on large contracts.
It also looks like you're saying they'll part ways with Abreu after the '26 season when he's a FA. I guess with Hader signed Abreu will want closer $$.
I actually think that roster would have very little flexibility. Diaz, Brown, and Scott (and Yordan but you addressed that) all come up for FA before 2029 so if they are on here they signed extensions or returned as FA. Most everybody else is into arbitration, many in deep. This team will have very few if any guys on min salary contracts. It feels like outside of Altuve and Yordan it will be " death of a thousand papercuts" where many $10-15M contracts instead of a few $25M+ contracts drive up the payroll.
There’s also 5 years of draft picks and international signings and extensions and internal development that aren’t factored into that roster at all.
It's basically impossible to put players that nobody even knows about. "3b= 2026 University of Florida starter who is the 2026 first rd pick" Or "SP= John Doe Garcia who is signed out of DR as an 18 year old in 2025" Both are entertaining but allow for less baseball talk and more sheer goofiness in the responses.
