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Updated 5 year outlook

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by Snake Diggit, Aug 2, 2019.

  1. rockbox

    rockbox Around before clutchcity.com

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    I see Crane giving JV top dollar as long as it's not for more than 2 years. Give him a series of 2 year deals with PO while front loading it. 60 million dollar 2 year deal, while paying him 35-40 million the first year. If he falls off the cliff, then he can opt in on the second year and get a 20-25 million dollar farewell tour.
     
  2. raining threes

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    Every time they dont go for it is an opportunity lost.

    Same as Dusty being the manager. You think after 30 years as a manager he's going to win one in year 31? Now that's optimism.
     
  3. Wulaw Horn

    Wulaw Horn Member

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    That’s not what I am saying at all. I’m saying that we have them locked in for 3 more years of arbitration and you bringing up Musgroves extension has nothing to do with comparing buying out arbitration from our guys for 3 more years and then extending for their first two years of FA. If they (not Framber bc he’s super 2 and more accomplished this the higher suggested contract) go through arbitration they are likely to make about 20 million in those three years. Thus, a 5/50 deal right now is roughly the equivalent of buying out their 3 arbitration years at 20 million total and then adding on an additional 2/30 to the end of their arbitration for their first 2 FA years. You seem more interested in saying the values are stupid, not giving any of your own, bringing in a completely irrelevant deal ( Musgrove entering FA) and ignoring the general point I’m making. These extensions have been done often for players at their service time (sale and Archer were 2 I named) and they all followed the same format I’m talking about having nothing in common with the deal you brought up.
    is that clear now? If not- feel free to throw out a number you think would make sense for an extension.
    @Snake Diggit , who is the best at this thing on here imo, already said he thought those extension numbers were in the right ballpark.
    Again- you are more interested in being a dick about this than listening to what I’m saying.
     
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  4. Wulaw Horn

    Wulaw Horn Member

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    I mean- there are 30 teams in the league so he’s due this year!
     
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  5. raining threes

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    Seems like a good plan to me.

    I'm hoping you're wrong about the Yankees and Verlander. But if they let Verlander walk Click should have around 20 mil extra to spend in FA.
     
  6. HeyBudLetsParty

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    One thing to keep in mind with JV is if he signs with the Yanks he’ll need to shave. He’s a handsome guy with a beard, but unfortunately suffers from a butt chin. This could cause conflict as his spouse is super model, and JV would possibly look ugly cleanly shaved.
     
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  7. Redfish81

    Redfish81 Member

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    I would bet Verlander goes to the Mets if not the Astros. Jacob deGrom has said he is planning to opt out plus Taijuan Walker and Chris Bassitt are likely free agents. The Mets spring training is close enough to his place in Jupiter. Yankees are all the way over in Tampa.
     
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  8. rockbox

    rockbox Around before clutchcity.com

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    Why do you think Verlander will become a Yankee? Crane has never been shy about paying huge big money for a short term contract. He's given Verlander market value twice so far. Verlander won't have a better chance at being in the world series with the Yankees either. The only advantage for Verlander would be a couple of wins per season because of the additional run support.
     
  9. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Dodgers would be my dark horse for Verlander. Of course every contender with money will be in on him, so Yankees, Mets, and Braves would also be plausible landing spots. I doubt he takes a chance on an up and coming team trying to make a splash like the Rangers or Mariners.
     
  10. IdStrosfan

    IdStrosfan Member

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    This is a great point.

    Spring training location was a factor this time.

    He will wantva team with spring training in Florida, and likely East coast of Florida
     
  11. Major

    Major Member

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    Andy Reid won his first SB in his 21st year. Dusty is in his 25th season.

    Other random Dusty stats:

    1992 SF Giants 72-90
    Dusty Hired
    1993 SF Giants: 103-59
    ...
    2002 CHI Cubs 67-95
    Dusty Hired
    2003 CHI Cubs 88-74 (Division Champs, first playoff series win in like 100 years)

    Cincinnati
    Made the playoffs in 3 out of 6 years ... after not having been there the previous 12 years

    Washington
    Made the playoffs in both of his years. No other manager EVER for Expos or Nationals (since 1969) has made the playoffs twice in their entire tenure with that team. His two teams also each won more games than they have since.

    Say what you want about Dusty, but he's had immense success everywhere he's been. He just hasn't won a title in a sport that has a huge element of luck in the playoffs.
     
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  12. jiggyfly

    jiggyfly Member

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    Yeah, the values are stupid as shown by you thinking these guys would sign for less than Musgrove.

    And you are talking about pitchers

    Extensions without reaching FA are the rarity, not the rule.

    Whatevs, I have said everything I needed to.
     
  13. the shark

    the shark Member

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    Nook I too would be curious why you think JV winds up signing with the NYY?
     
  14. Redfish81

    Redfish81 Member

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    Alcantara's contract would give you an idea on players with 3 years of arb left. Hard to argue any of our guys deserve more than he got from the Marlins.
     
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  15. Wulaw Horn

    Wulaw Horn Member

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    Was just talking to my partner today and said that the Dodgers are literally the best organization in all of professional sports or college athletic departments, so that wouldn't be too big a surprise if they were on him. I don't know that they are any smarter than the Astros, but they are as smart and a lot richer, so...
     
  16. Wulaw Horn

    Wulaw Horn Member

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    So your contention is that a 5 year extension for Javier, Framber or Urquidy, who are literally 3 years from FA still, would be for more money than what FA and all star to be Joe Musgrove just signed for, and that I'm the stupid one. Yeah, you should probably sit the next round out champ. That might be the worst take on this entire thread. Feel free to not respond to me- I won't see it ever again as you will be on my ignore.
     
  17. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Early look at potential free agent targets:

    Top 5 backup catcher targets: Omar Narvaez, Christian Vazquez, Mike Zunino, Tucker Barnhart, Austin Hedges

    Top 5 1B targets: Josh Bell, Trey Mancini, Wilmer Flores, Brandon Belt, Jose Abreu

    Top 5 OF targets: Andrew Benintendi, Brandon Nimmo, Mitch Haniger, Michael Brantley, David Peralta

    Top 5 SP targets: Justin Verlander, Jacob deGrom, Carlos Rodon, Nate Eovaldi, Mike Clevinger



    Full list of potential targets (not including relievers):
    Tier 1 ($300M+): Judge

    2 ($100M-$300M): Correa, Bogaerts, Turner, Swanson, DeGrom, Verlander, Rodon

    3 ($50M-$100M): Contreras, Bell, Belt, Mancini, Flores, Benintendi, Nimmo, Haniger, Martinez, Clevinger, Eovaldi

    4 ($20M-$50M): Narvaez, Sanchez, Vazquez, Abreu, Drury, Lamb, Brantley, Pederson, Gallo, Kluber, Heaney, Syndergaard, Taillon, Walker

    5 ($10M-$20M): Hedges, Perez, Carpenter, Diaz, Peralta

    6 ($1M-$10M): Barnhart, Zunino, Aguilar, Frazier, Gurriel, Hernandez, Duvall, Gamel, Grossman, McCutchen, Pham, Pinder, Naquin, Calhoun, Mazara, Myers, Cruz

    7 (milb): Chirinos, Vogt
     
    #397 Snake Diggit, Aug 10, 2022
    Last edited: Aug 10, 2022
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  18. punkoholic

    punkoholic Member

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    I would take out Eovaldi or Clevinger and replace them with Chrid Bassitt.

    Would like Bassitt if Astros can't keep Verlander. Would like to get his fellow teammate, Nimmo. Would like to keep Mancini to split time with Alvarez in LF and 1B, if they go with someone young. Unfortunately I don't think Mancini would be a fan of this and I can see him going elsewhere for a full time job(back to Baltimore).
     
  19. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Within the expected financial constraints and market dynamics, my picks to sign would be Justin Verlander, Trey Mancini, Mike Zunino, and Joey Gallo. Verlander and Mancini are premium players who are especially fitted for the Astros and might give slight preference in returning to Houston over most other teams. Zunino and Gallo are upside plays who should be inexpensive and at worst can serve in lesser used bench roles.

    2B Altuve
    SS Pena
    DH Alvarez
    3B Bregman
    RF Tucker
    1B Mancini
    LF McCormick
    CF Gallo
    C Zunino
    Bench: Maldonado, Meyers, Dubon, Matijevic
     
  20. The Beard

    The Beard Member

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    I'm sure Mancini is going to enjoy winning a ring, which he will do this October

    But yea, he isn't going to sign to come back here as a part time player and bat off the bench
     
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