That seems way too active. This roster just needs tweaks on the margins (aside from bringing back Verlander). This would be my offseason checklist: Resign Verlander. Just ask him for a number and give it to him if it’s anywhere near reasonable. I’d do up to $140M/4yrs without much negotiating. Insure the contract and move on. Extension offers: Tucker, Altuve, Javier. Bring in 1-2 bats. Based on the market and what’s on the farm I think they can just go to free agency and bring in 1 or 2 above average bats. Mancini is an obvious target, but there’s a sizable crop available: Bell, Abreu, Drury, Carpenter, Flores, Benintendi, Brantley, Pederson, Pham, Naquin, Nimmo, Gallo, Haniger, and Martinez are all reasonable targets. If they like an in-house option as an everyday 1B then I wouldn’t mind bringing Gurriel back on an extremely cheap deal ($4M/1yr) as a 13th position player. Aside from that, I’m fine with them leaving 1-2 bullpen spots open for in-house competition, and leaving the other 1-2 position player spots for in-house options. The AAA roster is full of guys who could be meaningful contributors and I don’t think the trade market would properly value them so it probably makes sense to keep them. Projected roster: 2B Altuve SS Pena DH Alvarez 3B Bregman RF Tucker 1B TBD free agent LF TBD free agent CF Meyers C Maldonado Bench: Dubon, Lee, McCormick, TBD prospect Rotation: Verlander, Valdez, McCullers, Javier, Garcia, Urquidy Bullpen: TBD prospect, Martinez, Abreu, Maton, Stanek, Neris, Pressly
There are several teams who are loaded. This is an arms race era. We are on the hill, but it's gonna be a dog fight for king of the hill.
Likely to win a WS? No such thing in baseball. But "reasonable." Why not? The Astros could "reasonably" win another one in 2023-2027 if (and that is a big IF) their farm continues to produce like it has the past few years.
Extend: Verlander, 3/$110M with 4th year mutual option Extend: Mancini, 3/$48M Sign Tucker to a long-term deal ($200M over 8 years or something) Trade: Luis Garcia for Bryan Reynolds (big splash) Sign: A bench player or two, or another reliever, if the fit is right. Otherwise use the $$$ for extensions/arbitration raises. 2023 roster Altuve 2B Reynolds LF Alvarez DH Bregman 3B Tucker RF Mancini 1B Pena SS McCormick CF Maldonado C Bench: Meyers, Lee, Hensley, Dubon Rotation: Verlander, McCullers, Valdez, Javier, Urquidy, Brown Pen: Pressly, Stanek, Neris, Maton, Martinez, Mushinski, Abreu
Yeah- I wasn’t actually suggesting we would get all that done, more using it as a gauge to see who I think you should commit to longterm (at least try to commit to long term- takes 2 to tango) who I think is reasonable to look to move on from in the right trade, who needs to be gone period, and who I think deserves a shot at holding down a big league job. If Brown is good I see absolutely no reason not to replenish the farm with one of the guys that’s is controllable for many years (If JV is brought back). I would love to get rid of Maton for a prospect, I would love to sell high on Nerris and get out from under an onerous contract for us (that 8 million could be used better then 4th or 5th most talented bullpen arm- but he’d be a closer on some teams and an 8th inning guy on others) I’m willing to run the risk that Stanek is replaceable and I’m selling high, and Garcia’s combo of stuff and an extra year on Urquidy make him likely more valuable in a trade return but I just like Urquidy better. Mancini seems like he’d fit really well on this team, but if you want to give that money to Josh Bell or someone else instead cool. Leave LF open for cheap prospects. What about my offers- too light in any extensions? Too much?
The extension offers you proposed look reasonable. I think both your free agent deals will be way too light but it would be nice if they could bring Verlander and Mancini back for those amounts. And it’s odd that you want to trade away Neris (who is on an $8M/yr deal only to turn around and offer Montero the same thing. I don’t think Stanek or Maton will have enough trade value to warrant shopping them. I don’t think Ivey is a prospect anymore. A Matijevic/Jones LF combo would be pretty bad defensively; if they bring back Mancini they’d probably be better of putting him in LF and having the platoon at 1B. And I think there’s a half dozen guys who might be in the 1B/LF/bench bat mix youre not mentioning (Leon, Julks, Brinson, Hensley, Diaz, Costes). But that’s all picking nits, generally I don’t think what you want to do is unreasonable I just think doing all of it is way too ambitious.
I would think Leon and Diaz get at least a chance to make the club next year or at a minimum get a chance mid-year. If Diaz’ bat translates he could be our 1b of the future and 3rd catcher. Leon surely has a shot at CF at some point.
I think Montero is just more talented than Neris. There’s room for 1 but not the other, and if I could get an asset for Neris which I suspect I could so much the better. IMO the bullpen is not a great place to spend money. Too unreliable from year to year plus you are well served to have space available to promote your young guys.
In 2023 with so many levels of playoffs and 40% of the teams making it, there are more opportunities than ever. Just get in the dance and make a play at the pretty girl. Best team doesn't always win ( see 2019 and 2021) The healthiest, hottest, and luckiest team wins. This team should be good enough to make it at least each of the next 5 years so should have a puncher's chance 5 times. I say they win one
In terms of expectations about how many rings Houston should win, a true top contender typically has ~15% chance of winning the World Series each season. So that would indicate a steady contender should, on average, win one every 6-7 years. For my part I do think they will win another World Series before this decade ends.
This is terrible. Why are you trading all of your bullpen for prospects? Why are you basing any of this on Brown and Whitley when you know some prospects are due to be duds because of the law of averages. Those pitching deals are highly unrealistic.
It’s not all of it. It’s typically not a good idea to pay middle relievers 4-8 million dollars. I wouldn’t do that more than once, so I’d pick the guy I think that’s the best of them and trade the rest. If it doesn’t work out you could always go back on the market at the trade deadline- relievers in walk years typically aren’t super expensive. Which starter offers do you think are wrong and why are they wrong in your mind? Keep in mind- all those guys are 3 years away from arbitration so those deals are only buying out 2 FA years.
To me the OF the next 5 years will be very interesting. I REALLY like Apollo's top prospect reports and he did his mid season top 40 a few days ago. He has 5 of the Astros top 8 prospects as OF. Gilbert #2 Leon #3 Barber #4 Melton #7 Clifford #8 With Brantley and Diaz moving on. Do you bring on a veteran to play LF, play Yordan there more, or go with the guys you have? I would like to see; 2023: Tucker RF and Leon given a shot in CF. Meyers and McCormick battling for 4th OF/LF when Yordan DHs.
Personally I think that they likely are going to look at CF, C, 1st and ACE as the spots they are going to address. Their #1 priority is going to be keeping Verlander, but it will likely cost them a lot over 3-4 years. Still, if they can get this done they will, even if it means neglecting other positions. If the Astros strike out on Verlander, I cannot see them getting an ace in free agency. The one possible exception is Nathan Eoavaldi, and I ony bring his name up because the Astros tried to sign him as a free agent. As for catcher, Maldonado makes 5 million next season and unless he retires, he is likely going to split time. That likely means no Christian Vazquez, who would be a perfect 2-3 year solution. There are a number of guys they could target in free agency to split time with Maldonado. Omar Narvaez would be the best available, but there is also Roberto Perez, Austin Hedges, Austin Romine and even Stephen Vogt. There are other bigger name receivers but the Astros won't go that route if Maldonado is playing. They should be able to fill this hole for around 3-5 million. If they are going to split someone with Maldonado, I hope they spend the extra it would take for Narvaez or Hedges, who are solid receivers. At first base, the Astros really wanted Josh Bell at the deadline and were interested in signing him to an extension. I'm not sure the Padres will have the finances to sign Bell this summer, but there are other teams like the Mets that will likely be interested. Jose Abreu will also be on the market, and he is someone that the Astros finished second to the White Sox when he was a free agent. I suspect the White Sox resign him though as they have made him the franchise face. Jesus Aguilar will also be available and Brandon Belt too. The very talented but very lazy Miguel Sano is a possible buy low candidate. My "guess" is the Astros go hard at Bell and sniff around Abreu and if they cannot get anything done, they put a priority on re-signing Mancini to play first and left field, and give Y. Diaz a chance to play some at first. The bat appears ready and he is cheap. Centerfield is going to be very hard to fill. They don't need a long term fit with so many centerfielders in their system. However, Meyers has struggled and Baker and some coaches don't see Chas as a centerfielder. That means a possible trade because there is literally NOTHING out there in the free agent market. It looks like @Redfish81 was right to want the Astros to spend the money and sign Starling Marte. So I think that CF will likely be filled through trade. The bullpen will have some openings with Montero likely gone. I still am baffled they spent so much time and energy on him and didn't get him extended before the season, they clearly believed in him and he is a huge part of the Astros pen. Having said that, there are lots of arms that can replace his role. Abreu appears ready. My guess is one starter in the rotation gets traded for CF help, if I had to guess it is either Lance or Urquidy. I think they either get a first baseman like Josh Bell OR they resign Mancini. They will decide based on finances. I think that Maldonado doesn't leave 5 million sitting on the table and comes back and we sign Narvaez with the understanding he can take over in 2024. I think that Verlander ends up a NY Yankee and the Astros pursue an ace at the trade deadline.
I realize you are plugged in and have particularly good insight and I appreciate you and what I read from you @Nook That said I don't see them trading Lance. I'm not sure how much Value he has this offseason ( 8 weeks will tell) and he bleeds orange and navy. Maybe it's more hope than anything. I do not see Verlander being a mercenary nor being money driven. I think he wants as few teams as possible on the back of his baseball card. I see him resigning and topping the rotation with Framber and Lance following. Brown has done all he can at AAA and needs to be one of 6 members of that rotation. That leaves Javier, Urquidy and Garcia and one really needs to go to fill a CF, 1B, or LF ( in that order of preference). My choices would be Garcia, Urquidy, then Javier. There are 5 position players who will be FA and likely none are coming back. It's tough for a World Series contending team to have 5 of 13 rookies and that does not include CF and possibly Leon fighting for it. As the roster sits B/u C( Castro, Vazquez): Lee 1B( Yuli): Taylor Jones, J.J. Matijevic, Yanier Diaz LF(Brantley): Yordan, Chas CF: Meyers, Leon Bench (Diaz): Hensley, 1b candidates Bench( Mancini): same Many of those guys would not be ideal Lots to pay attention too
It's been good for the Astros and it's currently good I have no idea why you get to say it's not a good idea, we got to World series with this type of BP. So go back to the market when everybody knows you are desperate? Why am I worried about arbitration you just go out and replace like they did with Graveman. I think most of your trades are wrong and then you just pencil in guys as if they will be just as good you don't have a clue if they will be good, especially Whitley. What you are trying to pay the starters is the most unrealistic part.
