They're both only got 3 year deals left, no? They're not exactly hamstrung long-term by anybody. They could/should be able to emulate what the Brewers have in terms of payroll distribution -- one mega deal, a few medium deals, and some short-term high paying deals.... mixed with homegrown talent.
I’ve mentioned it in prior offseasons…he’s great friends with Altuve and would fill a big hole in our roster, but I wonder if Salvy Perez’ insane season (fun fact: he leads MLB w 105 RBIs) either prevents or fast tracks a trade. I’m sure it would have to be a pretty hefty return after his incredible bounce back season to date…but I wouldn’t mind penciling in Salvy as our backstop…maybe something built around Lee and Hunter Brown? Perez will be 32 next season and has a lot of tread already, but surely KC would move him at the right price.
Correct. They aren't hamstrung by anyone. That said, two players having a combined salary for 2023 more than 4 different teams this year is not cheap in my book. Not too familiar with Brewers pay structure, but I expect Astros will continue with a payroll distribution like they have now. Fill in as many spots as they can with club controlled players. Spend as much of Crane's money as he allows in free agency to fill the gaps. The more gaps they fill with club controlled players, the better free agents they can sign.
I think at this point it’s pretty clear the Royals intend to keep Perez thru his contract. If Houston is going to upgrade at catcher it looks like Contreras would be the main target, but with Lee breaking out I’d just as soon they stand pat with Maldy/Castro for one more season until Lee is ready.
Dayton Moore is incredibly hesitant to trade away fan favorites, and Sal Perez is the most well known player on the team. They gave him a big extension before the season as well. Just the way that organization works, I would be surprised to see them trade him.
Certainly not... although those 4 other teams should be spending more (and may have to based on CBA). That said, having two high priced players likely commits Crane to having more in order to field a competitive team worth having those two high priced players.
I think Crane will commit money as needed usually around the luxury tax provided the team is worth spending money on.
Sure, but there’s a big difference between going into a season with no financial flexibility (why I hated the Odo signing from the moment it happened) and the roster I was responding to in 2023. That would suck. You have to invest in at least 1 of the 4 places you went cheap at, preferably 2. If the plan is for Leon to be the starting SS in 2023 I’m not super fired up about that. I want Correa. If you give me Simien or something like that I guess I’m ok with that. But none of the present day rookie 3 OFers project as stars for me- so if we are growing cheap there we need a stud at SS and/or TOR pitcher. If Leon is going to be a star with the bat let him do it playing CF or LF and get one of the half dozen high quality, natural SS on the market this year.
That should be the expectation. That 2023 roster wouldn’t be anywhere near the luxury tax line and that’s what I was pushing back against. I would much rather have a 6 War Shortstop for 30 million than a 2 war short stop for league minimum and get a better dollar per win average. You need stars to win in October. The scouting and competition is so high/good that it chews up and spits out guys like McCormick with jokes/flaws in a way that will never happen in the regular season, when guys get numbers based upon lack of scouting, tiredness, mistakes etc.
Bumping this updated for opening day 2022 (salaries rounded to nearest million): 2022: C: Maldonado, Castro; 1.9 fwar, $9M IF: Gurriel, Altuve, Bregman, Diaz, Pena, Goodrum; 14.6 fwar, $59M OF: Tucker, Meyers/Siri, Brantley, Alvarez, McCormick; 14.4 fwar, $19M SP: Verlander, Valdez, McCullers, Odorizzi, Urquidy, Garcia; 13.9 fwar, $54.9M RP: Javier, Pressly, Stanek, Baez, Neris, Maton, Montero, others; 3.1 fwar, $31.8M Total: 47.9 fwar, $168M (26 man salaries only) Summary: that projects for 90-100 wins with $20-30M in payroll flexibility. This team is a contender on par with the 2015-2017 and 2020-2021 teams. 2023: Losses: Gurriel, Brantley, Diaz, Castro, Verlander (if he doesn't trigger his option) Prospects ready: Lee, Leon, Dubin, Brown, Solomon, Ivey, Whitley, others Arbitration class: Tucker, Alvarez, Goodrum, Valdez, Urquidy, Javier, Maton, Montero Projections: 50 fWAR, $170M (includes Verlander's $25M) Summary: That’s another 90-105 win team with $20-50M in payroll flexibility, depending on Verlander. Obviously if Leon, Lee, Brown, or another prospect turns into a star things look even rosier. Assuming Pena and Meyers get established as 2+ fWAR players, the needs are likely to be a corner bat (1B/LF) and not much else; of course, if Verlander is gone then the top of the rotation may need to be addressed. Again, should be money for extensions and deadline moves. They should have tons of pitching prospects to trade as well. 2024: Losses: Maldonado, Goodrum, Verlander, Odorizzi, Maton, Neris, Montero, Baez, Stanek Prospects ready: Perez, Diaz, others Arbitration class: Tucker, Alvarez, McCormick, Valdez, Garcia, Urquidy Projections: 50 fwar, $132M Summary: 90-105 wins with $50-80M in payroll open. Tucker, Alvarez, and possibly Valdez/Javier/Garcia/Urquidy will be getting expensive in arbitration by this point. But again there should be money for extensions and to address backup catcher and the bullpen, although those are areas I think the farm will be able to address. It is unquestionable that they should still be contending and if things break right, this could be one of the all-time great rosters. 2025: Losses: Altuve, Bregman, Pressly (if he doesn't trigger his option) Prospects ready: Gonzalez, Barber, Santos, others Arbitration class: Tucker, Meyers, Alvarez, McCormick, Valdez, Urquidy, Garcia, Javier Projections: 44 fwar, $119M (includes Pressly's $14M) Summary: Losing Altuve and Bregman drops the projection to 85-95 wins, but those 2 also open up $60M in payroll. By this point the Astros would need several current prospects to become stars in order to continue to contend. The rotation will still have Valdez, McCullers, Urquidy, and Garcia. The BP will have Javier, Pressly, and a host of guys who aren't established yet. But the projected roster is peppered with potential holes (1B, 2B, 3B, LF, SP), but there should be nearly $100M in available payroll to address whatever the farm can't handle. For now I fully expect the 2025 Astros to contend. 2026: Losses: Tucker, Alvarez, Valdez, Urquidy, Javier, Pressly Prospects ready: Whitaker, others Arbitration class: Lee, Pena, Meyers, Leon, McCormick, Brown, Garcia Projections: 30 fWAR, $80M Summary: Here's where things get dicey, as it is difficult to confidently project a contending Astros team that does not include Altuve, Bregman, Tucker, Alvarez, or Valdez. Making no moves, the team would project for 70-80 wins with well over $100M in available payroll. The rotation would still feature Garcia and McCullers, while the stock of arms currently in the upper levels of the farm would indicate the bullpen should be plenty healthy. So whether or not Houston can continue the dynasty would depend on just how good their potential core pieces are, whether or not any surprise stars emerge, and how well Houston drafts and spends money. Things I would hope to see: Extend one of Alvarez/Tucker next offseason Extend Altuve after the 2023 season Get 10+ fwar combined in 2025 from Lee, Pena, Leon, Brown, and Whitley Get 5+ fwar combined in 2026 from Perez, Whitaker, Barber, Gonzalez, and Santos Draft well Spend to the limit
Really well done. Thanks for the effort and putting that all together in one place. Observation- we are spending a lot in the bullpen for very little return in a WAR sense. Some of this is just the nature of IP in the bullpen, some of it is the impulse by this FO to spend there and not use it as a way to break in younger talent from the farm. Question- what do you think an Altuve extension would look like after 2023, assuming he puts up something like 6 or 7 WAR in the next 2 years. I want him to be an Astro lifer and Crane seems inclined to agree. Question- if we need a corner bat (I prefer 2 but maybe one of Brantley or Yuli will have some tread on their tires still and want to get extended, who do you see being that option and what price point. Question 2- if not JV back as our TOR ace who would you look at and what price point? The rotation is cheapish and pretty good (I think they are constantly underrated) but I wouldn’t go into any playoff series sans JV and think it’s likely that I have the advantage in any game 1. It’s a perfect rotation for 162 games, I’m agnostic to skeptical about the playoff sprint.
I just don't see Altuve going anywhere. I wonder what the contract will be. I'm guessing 15-20 million a year if he maintains this level.
Altuve will be entering the last season of his contract at age 34, so his next contract is unlikely to be that big. Assuming he continues to stay healthy and productive (~3war/yr), I think an extension like $65M/4yrs guaranteed plus 2 $15M/1yr vesting/team options and incentives for pa and awards would get it done (so potentially $120M/6yrs if he hits all vesting and incentives). That would cover his age 35-40 seasons, ensuring he is an Astro lifer while the AAV would be low enough not to carry much risk. If he is still a 3war player after 2023 he will likely be on a 3000 hit / Hall of Fame trajectory. I do feel extremely confident that Altuve will be an Astro until he just can’t play anymore. To answer Wulaw’s other questions, I do not think Houston will shop at the top of the free agent pool at any position, so upgrades will likely come internally, via trade, or in the 2nd/3rd tier of free agency. 3+ years is too far out to really speculate which players might be targets. Next offseason I could see Houston being interested in free agents Josh Bell, Kike Hernandez, Robbie Grossman, Adam Frazier, or Trey Mancini. I would assume Houston would be the heavy heavy favorites to resign Gurriel if he has a decent season. I think they will move on from Brantley but it certainly wouldn’t shock me if they resigned him as well. I am hopeful they will have internal options for the rotation and it’s too hard to predict what they’ll do otherwise.
I think you are probably right and there lies my pessimism/darkness about what we seem to be about the last couple years. It’s not that I’m pessimistic about the teams chances this year it’s just we’ve had a pretty major talent drain and don’t seem inclined to replace it at the top level. Reminds me of the Mariners withstanding the loss of Johnson and ARod and Griffey and being ok, and winning 116, and then looking up and realizing eventually they hit a tipping point and it was all gone. We really need to hit on at least one or two regulars a year in the field to keep this up and that’s a tough ask. Peña might be one. Lee might be one. Leon might be one. But man- to get 2 league average and 1 all star types out of that is asking a lot, but probably necessary if this team is going to stay where it is. I guess I should include Meyers in that collection of guys. If our ‘24 team is something like Leon, Meyers, Tucker, Bregman, Pena, Altuve and middling 1B with Lee catching and Alvarez at DH that’s not a lot of money being spent out there (probably 85 million or so) If those guys are good And the rotation holds up I’d hope we chase an ace on Bauer or Scherzer type terms because we should have the juice to do so short term. Or if we extended Tucker and Yordan that would also work. But if we are in arb 2 with those guys with them counting the days to get out and no top shelf replacements that would feel like the end of an era.
Getting the 2026 Astros to 50 fwar: RF Tucker (extended) 6 3B Bregman (extended) 4 SS Pena 4 2B Altuve (extended) 3 UT Leon 3 CF Meyers 3 C Lee 3 LF TBD prospect 2 (McCormick, Siri, Barber, Whitaker, draft pick, etc) 1B TBD prospect 1 (Matijevic, Perez, Jones, etc.) Other hitters 1 Position player total: 30 SP TBD ace 4 (biggest ? IMO) SP McCullers, Garcia, Brown, Whitley 11 total TBD closer 2 Other pitchers 3 total Pitching total: 20
Bumping this to update for this season thru the trade deadline. 2023: Losses: Gurriel, Brantley, Diaz, Castro, Vasquez, Mancini, Smith, Verlander (if he doesn't trigger his option) Prospects ready: Lee, Leon, Hensley, Julks, Diaz, Brown, Whitley, Solomon, Dubin, France, Blanco Arbitration class: Tucker, Goodrum, Valdez, Urquidy, Javier, Maton, Stanek Projections: 54 fWAR, $165M (including Verlander's $25M) Summary: That’s another 100+ win team with $30-60M in payroll flexibility, depending on Verlander. The needs on offense are questionable. They will likely bring in a bat of some kind, at 1B, LF, or CF. But even if they do nothing but stick with internal options, the offense will be very very good. Of course, if Verlander is gone then the top of the rotation may need to be addressed. Again, there should be money for extensions and deadline moves. They should have some prospect depth to trade as well. 2024: Losses: Maldonado, Goodrum, Verlander, Maton, Stanek Prospects ready: Perez, Dirden, Melendez, other pitching prospects Arbitration class: Tucker, McCormick, Dubon, Valdez, Garcia, Urquidy, Javier Projections: 55 fWAR, $150M Summary: 100+ wins with $60-90M in payroll open. Tucker, and Valdez/Javier/Garcia/Urquidy will be getting expensive in arbitration by this point. But again there should be money for extensions and to address catcher and the bullpen, although those are areas I think the farm will be able to address. They may need a ToR SP, but it is unquestionable that they should still be contending and I believe the opportunity exists to put together their all-time best roster in 2024. 2025: Losses: Altuve, Bregman, Neris, Pressly (if he doesn't trigger his option) Prospects ready: Gonzalez, Barber, Gilbert, Melton, Santos, Arrighetti, other pitchers Arbitration class: Tucker, Pena, Meyers, McCormick, Dubon, Valdez, Urquidy, Garcia, Javier, Abreu Projections: 50 fwar, $135M (includes Pressly's $14M) Summary: Losing Altuve and Bregman drops the projection to 95-105 wins, but those 2 also open up $60M in payroll. By this point the Astros would need at least one or two prospects to become good everyday players or stars in order to continue to contend. The rotation will still have Valdez, McCullers, Urquidy, Javier, and Garcia. The BP will have Abreu, Pressly, and a host of guys who aren't established yet. The projected lineup is peppered with potential holes (C, 1B, 2B, 3B, CF, LF), but there should be over $100M in available payroll to address whatever the farm can't handle. It is very likely that there will be a couple of extensions (Altuve leading the way) that will address the lineup departures. For now I fully expect the 2025 Astros to contend. 2026: Losses: Tucker, Valdez, Urquidy, Javier, Pressly Prospects ready: Whitaker, Clifford, Baez, Gomez, Ullola, Taylor, Knorr, many many others Arbitration class: Lee, Matijevic, Pena, Meyers, Leon, McCormick, Dubon, Perez, Brown, Garcia, Abreu Projections: 43 fWAR, $115M Summary: Despite losing Altuve, Bregman, Tucker, and Valdez, the Astros still project to be contenders into 2026. Making no moves, the team would project for 90-100 wins with well over $100M in available payroll; the emergence of Pena, extending Alvarez, and the farm depth (factoring in future full slates of draft picks) have extended the window. The rotation would still feature Garcia and McCullers, while the stock of arms currently in the upper levels of the farm would indicate the bullpen should be plenty healthy. So whether or not Houston can continue the dynasty would depend on just how good their potential core pieces are, whether or not any surprise stars emerge, and how well Houston drafts and spends money. 2027: Losses: Dubon, McCormick, McCullers, Garcia Prospects ready: TBD Arbitration class: Lee, Matijevic, Pena, Meyers, Leon, McCormick, Dubon, Perez, Brown, Garcia, Abreu Projections: 43 fWAR, $130M Summary: Houston won't lose much after the 2026 season, so this projects as another 90-100 win team, even without spending much new money; McCullers will be past his prime age and has been injury prone to say the least, so Luis Garcia projects to be the only significant free agent. Again, the core of Pena, Alvarez, and all the top prospects currently working their way thru the farm bode really well for Houston being able to extend their window into the foreseeable future. Obviously a significant negative event related to Pena or Alvarez would affect this outlook, but with no bad contracts giving them immense financial flexibility, the future is as bright for as far as we can reasonably see.
I agree. Altuve is the face of this Astros Era. He has been the longest tenured Astro of this winning era. I think he’s the only one who was in those 100 loss teams. (And to think I thought he was a place holder for 2nd base till Delino DeShields was ready - and why i know I’m not a GM). I hope the Astros do what they have to, in order to keep Altuve here the rest of his career. The Astros reached the World Series last year without Verlander. The Astros have been on a year without last years ace McCullers. And in 2020, though Altuve had a lousy short regular season, he exploded in the playoffs to almost get them to the World Series.
Really well done, as per usual. Thanks for all the work on this. Retain- Verlander (3/95 with 1 year vesting option/opt out for player in year 4 for 25 million) Montero- 3/24 Let walk- Yuli, Vasquez, Castro, Diaz, Brantley, Smith Think about extending- Mancini (something like 3/45 if we like him and he hits and he likes us) Offer to extend- Tucker- 8 years- $200 million. Make him say no Offer- Valdez- 5/75 Offer- Javier- 5-50 Offer- Urquidy- 5/40 Trade- Maton prospects Trade- Stanek for Prospects Trade Nerris for prospects Trade- Garcia for prospects Dfa- Goodrum, DFA Josh James Promote- Brown, Whitley, Ivey, Solomon Promote- Lee, Leon, JJ, Jones (JJ/Jones LF platoon) 26 man roster- JV/LMJ/Valdez/Urquidy/Javier/ (83 million) Presley, Montero, Abreu, Brown, Whitley, Ivey, Solomon, Martinez, (27 million) Maldonado/Lee- 6 million Mancini/Altuve/Peña/Bregman/Dubon- (70 million) Alvarez/Tucker/JJ/Jones/Chas/Meyers (45 million) 230 million. Starters locked in through 25, 26, 28, 28, 28. Leverage- Presley/Montero/Abreu Starters in waiting/ feet wet in bullpen- Brown/Whitley Core (stars) through primes with no ability to walk before their prime is over- Peña/Tucker/Yordan/Bregman Late prime: Mancini/Altuve Should be at least league average for cheap- 2 positions- JJ/Jones/Chas/Meyers Waiting in the wings with star potential- Leon Prospect haul for Nerris, Garcia, Stanek and Maton would be pretty significant. Call it 6 40 grade prospects and a 50 grade? This would cost more today than what they probably want to pay, and all those guys obviously wouldn’t take those extensions- but those would be my offers and the team would be locked in for 5 years with room to grow/develop the next wave with this years draft class and those prospects you get in flipping the pitching.
