(Unofficial) Astros at Reds

I've said it numerous times: the early 90s were very fun for me to watch, because I knew these guys were developing into something. We offloaded Davis, Anderson, Hatcher, and others, and were left with a bunch of kids: Bagwell, Biggio, Harnisch, Reynolds and Hampton (a bit later), Kile, Gonzales, Finley. Good times.

Infinitely more watchable than this current squad.

 

i don't disagree with anything you just said. all good points.

 

lightining in a bottle, man. they had two legitimate future HoFers in their system and a score of future all-stars; it was a ripe system and as such, they weren't down very long.

they had two bad years - '90 and '91 - and they were only marginally bad in '90; really bad in '91. after bottoming out in '91, they won 81, 85, 66 (strike year: 66-49), 76 (other strike year: 76-68) & 82 before winning the division in '87. if only every "rebuilding" effort was that easy. hell, they were so stocked, they could afford to give away lofton, schilling, abreu, santana a- all without missing a beat.

unfortunatly, they don't have anything even remotely close to that right now: the system is barren. come back in 3 years when the "fun" but talentless kids are the new royals or pirates, losing 90 games every year with absolutely no future.

last year was infinitiely more fun than 1991, imo (not using the benefit of hindsight). i'd rather they try and capture that again than pretend rebuilding is a quick, easy fix - it's not. you're asking a team that hasn't drafted well in more than a decade and hasn't developed a top-flight major league talent in roughly the same stretch to suddenly reverse that trend and start nailing every single pick.

and even then, it's gonna take minimum 3 years to start seeing an ROI, and likely much longer. in the meantime, you have no chance of winning anything and two of the best players in franchise history will be off playing for other fans....

 

Your welcome.

 

Where do you think these prospects are going to come from? Thin air?

 

The cupboard isn't completely bare. Check out the Lexington (high A) pitching staff. Bud Norris and Yorman Bazardo at Round Rock. Andrew Locke at Corpus.

 

they drafted abreu, biggio, caminiti, gonzo, hidalgo, kile, lofton, reynolds & wagner... so i'm gonna say through the draft.

(amd yeah, juicystream - sorry, got the # of wins and year crossed up. thanks)

 

Very well stated. Food for thought. The system may not be what it was back then, but it's not utterly barren, either. Additionally, several of those young kids came in the Glenn Davis trade, not from the system. Another came from the Anderson trade (or was it Darwin? dead tired today). Furthermore, *every* system sees some of its prospects become outstanding players for other franchises; that is nothing out of the ordinary.

And believe it or not, last year and '91 are a toss-up for me. I knew in '91 I was watching some guys who would be in the league for a long time, and hopefully Astros for a long time. Like you point out, I don't expect the Astros could repeat that "lightning in a bottle" with regards to the kind of quality they had on that squad, but neither do I expect all the stars to magically align every year such that Moehller pitches like an $8M 3rd starter, 2 or 3 relievers off the scrap heap suddenly compile sub-3.00 ERAs, and the Astros rise from the ashes in the 2nd half to make a run at the playoffs. Every year since 2006 they haven't been that great on paper, and it's pretty much played out that way. This is a bad team, being paid like a good team.

Blimey. Be sure to correct those people. (I never said that.)

 

But let's not pretend they were hitting solid gold with every pick in every round every year--you're talking a span of a decade here:

Caminiti: 84
Biggio: 87
Kile: 87
Lofton: 88
Gonzo: 88
Reynolds: 89
Abreu: 90 (amateur FA)
Hidalgo: 91 (amateur FA)
Wagner: 93

Cut out the oldest and the youngest, and that's 7 great picks in 5 years. Is that horribly unreasonable to hope your GM can do? 9 great picks in 10 years--I *do* hope the Astros at the very least do that.

 

whoa now

....this take offers some excellent context surrounding the '90s experience. I'm glad I saw this.

If this is indeed what they're trying to do, that's great. I hope they can pull it off. The last few drafts really, really hurt. I wonder how many years those successive horrible drafts set this franchise back?

 

bagwell doesn't count; he was a once-in-a-lifetime deal - they're not going to turn latroy hawkins (it was andersen, btw) into the next jeff bagwell. they got EXTREMELY lucky there. davis did indeed bring a bounty (schilling, finley and harnisch), but the core of that team was built through the draft (and one very fortunate, sweetheart of a deal).

sorry, man - that is tough to believe. i'd much rather watch a team win 86 games and be in playoff contention late into september than watch a bunch of unpredictable kids lose 97 games.

here are your options, you choose:

option #1: keep your core of berkman, lee and oswalt and try to piece together a team around them capable of competing while you rebuild the farm;

option #2: waste the core of berkman, lee and oswalt by surrounding them with a bunch of unproven kids (who may or may not have a future) and jason lane-types (who definitely don't have a future) while you rebuild the farm;

option #3: trade the core of berkman, lee and oswalt for a bunch of prospects and watch several seasons of jason lane-types hold down the fort until you start to see some ROI on your efforts to rebuild your system.

i can certainly understand why option #3 is appealing; it's the same reason the nfl draft attracts such a rabid following... but in practice, it's a risky, difficult thing to do.

the astros right now are pretty much where the astros were in the 1980s - which is to say largely mediocre. they averaged 84 wins/year for the decade (i excluded the '81 strike-shortened season; they were on pace to win 90 that year - putting their average up to 85), posting win totals between 76-86 in seven of those 10 seasons.

but here's the thing: in 2.5 of those years (i'm giving the '81 team a .5), they put some things together, got lucky and won a couple of divisions. like the current group, they were built around some stars, had guys turn in career years, got help from some youngsters.... but there was nothing sustaining about it. it took them a long time to really build a foundation.

we're looking at a long-term project with likely little-to-no short-term results again. it's my opinion, but as stated - i think recreating '80 and '86 is far more likely than recreating 1991.

 

hopefully they have some guys in place already at the lower levels. but... yeah, i mean - that's the kind of commitment you're talking about here - a solid 3-5 years to start to see an ROI.

so how do you fill the void in the meantime? i admire drayton for trying to put a competitive team out there. my only stipulation is that he better not gut any more of the system to do so.

 

agreed.

 

Trade Roy-O to the Phils for package including Kyle Drabek.

 

they are going to come from the contracts of Miguel Tejada. Jose Valverde and Roy Oswalt.