Understanding How Well Lin & Beverley Are Playing In 2013 Preseason

steady · Oct 17, 2013

PhiSlamma said: ↑

Just to be clear, this thread was made to try to squelch the "Lin vs Bev" debate a bit. Not fuel it.
Click to expand...

Sorry, PhiSlamma. : ) I know what you are trying to do, and respect that. But I think this week...

devin23 · Oct 17, 2013

JustAGuy said: ↑

Yeah, but that would pretty much work out to 36 minutes for Harden and 0 for Garcia.

Extra minutes for Garcia at SG will be coming from Lin or Beverley's total minutes.
Click to expand...

Garcia can also play back SF to Parsons.

TTNN · Oct 17, 2013

Sen89 said: ↑

Lin's style of play will end up in one of two ways if he starts - either he continues using possessions and takes touches away from Harden/Dwight, or he doesn't get as many opportunities to create as he should, and is not fully utilized. We've seen that he's at his best when he leads an offense, and gets to "use" more possessions - and he'd get that chance off the bench.

Beverley's style of play (low-usage) is bound to end up the same way in any lineup. He gets the ball to the go-to guy(s), hustles, rebounds, defends, hits some open threes and will occasionally drive. You know what you're getting from Beverley, and it's not dependent on his touches. And that's the type of player that fits perfectly with Harden, Dwight and Parsons.
Click to expand...

Looks like you just want your starting PG pass the ball to your go-to guy and get out of the way. LOL, that is what Beverley is most good at though.

And good luck with all the "use" goes to James and Dwight, we will have ISO all day, and totally away from Rocket's offense philosophy. Rocket offense will be so predictable, and you just need to lock down Harden, that would do it, there will be no other play maker on the floor and nobody could do entry pass to DH, and Parsons cut nicely without a delivery of ball on time.

Last season, almost 60% of Beverley's assist goes to 3-pt shots, good luck DH in waiting for the ball and get his touch. Maybe he could try to drive and bring the ball in himself.

Pumpedupkicks · Oct 18, 2013

TTNN said: ↑

And good luck with all the "use" goes to James and Dwight, we will have ISO all day, and totally away from Rocket's offense philosophy. Rocket offense will be so predictable, and you just need to lock down Harden, that would do it, there will be no other play maker on the floor and nobody could do entry pass to DH, and Parsons cut nicely without a delivery of ball on time.
Click to expand...

I'm pretty critical when it comes to iso-Harden, but James is not that selfish or stupid. He's a willing passer and he wants to make this work with Dwight. He'll cut down on the isos now that he has D12, a reliable big and scoring option. I think we'll see a good balance of heavy PnRs, with some post feeds and isos to keep both Howard and Harden happy. Of course they'll have to remember to sprinkle in a few half court alley-oops with Parsons to keep us entertained.

gene18 · Oct 18, 2013

durvasa said: ↑

gene18, it's a sample size thing. Low sample size means high variance, which means a higher percentage of players will have inflated numbers. Its why after the first week of the season there will invariably be several players with a PER over 25, even though at season's end there's rarely more than 3. Lin's and Beverley's numbers will almost certainly "regress to the mean".
Click to expand...

Yes, I would think so.

Rhodium · Oct 18, 2013

good analysis but too small sample size

PhiSlamma · Oct 22, 2013

PhiSlamma said: ↑

Just to be clear, this thread was made to try to squelch the "Lin vs Bev" debate a bit. Not fuel it. If anything is clear from these admittedly-small early preseason stats, it's that both guys are playing great and I, personally, am comfortable with either player starting.

Now, couple people asked about full team stats. Cant promise I will do this after every game, but here are the updated numbers through Preseason Game #4:

JH ---- 4 games ------ 102 minutes ---- TEFF = 084 ---- EPM = 0.824
OC ---- 4 games ------ 096 minutes ---- TEFF = 071 ---- EPM = 0.740
JL ----- 3 games ------ 078 minutes ---- TEFF = 055 ---- EPM = 0.705
PB ---- 4 games ------ 096 minutes ---- TEFF = 066 ---- EPM = 0.688
FG ---- 2 games ------ 043 minutes ---- TEFF = 029 ---- EPM = 0.674
CP ---- 3 games ------ 082 minutes ---- TEFF = 047 ---- EPM = 0.573
DM ---- 4 games ------ 086 minutes ---- TEFF = 046 ---- EPM = 0.535
DH ---- 4 games ------ 093 minutes ---- TEFF = 041 ---- EPM = 0.441
TJ ---- 4 games ------ 099 minutes ---- TEFF = 037 ---- EPM = 0.374
RB ---- 4 games ------ 064 minutes ---- TEFF = 021 ---- EPM = 0.328
AB ---- 3 games ------ 046 minutes ---- TEFF = 014 ---- EPM = 0.304
RW ---- 1 games ------ 022 minutes ---- TEFF = 005 ---- EPM = 0.227
RC ---- 4 games ------ 031 minutes ---- TEFF = 002 ---- EPM = 0.065
GS ---- 1 games ------ 003 minutes ---- TEFF = 000 ---- EPM = 0.000
OA ---- 0 games ------ 0xx minutes ---- TEFF = 0xx ---- EPM = 0.xxx
Click to expand...

Updated numbers through Preseason Game #5

JH ---- 5 games ------ 127 minutes ---- TEFF = 097 ---- EPM = 0.764
OC ---- 5 games ------ 115 minutes ---- TEFF = 080 ---- EPM = 0.696
PB ---- 5 games ------ 123 minutes ---- TEFF = 078 ---- EPM = 0.634
FG ---- 3 games ------ 065 minutes ---- TEFF = 041 ---- EPM = 0.631
JL ---- 4+games ------ 111 minutes ---- TEFF = 067 ---- EPM = 0.604
CP ---- 4 games ------ 108 minutes ---- TEFF = 057 ---- EPM = 0.528
DH ---- 5 games ------ 122 minutes ---- TEFF = 064 ---- EPM = 0.525
DM ---- 5 games ------ 094 minutes ---- TEFF = 049 ---- EPM = 0.521
AB ---- 4 games ------ 052 minutes ---- TEFF = 024 ---- EPM = 0.462
TJ ---- 4 games ------ 099 minutes ---- TEFF = 037 ---- EPM = 0.374
RB ---- 5 games ------ 070 minutes ---- TEFF = 022 ---- EPM = 0.314
GS ---- 2 games ------ 011 minutes ---- TEFF = 003 ---- EPM = 0.273
OA ---- 1 games ------ 025 minutes ---- TEFF = 005 ---- EPM = 0.200
RW ---- 2 games ------ 028 minutes ---- TEFF = 003 ---- EPM = 0.107
RC ---- 4 games ------ 031 minutes ---- TEFF = 002 ---- EPM = 0.065

Harden, Casspi, Lin, Bev, Garcia, Parsons and DMo all had games against Dallas which took down their Efficiency Per Minute statistic. Howard and Brooks surge up behind strong performances. Beverly and Garcia nudge ahead of Lin in preseason EPM. Asik gets on the board.

PhiSlamma · Oct 24, 2013

PhiSlamma said: ↑

Updated numbers through Preseason Game #5

JH ---- 5 games ------ 127 minutes ---- TEFF = 097 ---- EPM = 0.764
OC ---- 5 games ------ 115 minutes ---- TEFF = 080 ---- EPM = 0.696
PB ---- 5 games ------ 123 minutes ---- TEFF = 078 ---- EPM = 0.634
FG ---- 3 games ------ 065 minutes ---- TEFF = 041 ---- EPM = 0.631
JL ---- 4+games ------ 111 minutes ---- TEFF = 067 ---- EPM = 0.604
CP ---- 4 games ------ 108 minutes ---- TEFF = 057 ---- EPM = 0.528
DH ---- 5 games ------ 122 minutes ---- TEFF = 064 ---- EPM = 0.525
DM ---- 5 games ------ 094 minutes ---- TEFF = 049 ---- EPM = 0.521
AB ---- 4 games ------ 052 minutes ---- TEFF = 024 ---- EPM = 0.462
TJ ---- 4 games ------ 099 minutes ---- TEFF = 037 ---- EPM = 0.374
RB ---- 5 games ------ 070 minutes ---- TEFF = 022 ---- EPM = 0.314
GS ---- 2 games ------ 011 minutes ---- TEFF = 003 ---- EPM = 0.273
OA ---- 1 games ------ 025 minutes ---- TEFF = 005 ---- EPM = 0.200
RW ---- 2 games ------ 028 minutes ---- TEFF = 003 ---- EPM = 0.107
RC ---- 4 games ------ 031 minutes ---- TEFF = 002 ---- EPM = 0.065

Harden, Casspi, Lin, Bev, Garcia, Parsons and DMo all had games against Dallas which took down their Efficiency Per Minute statistic. Howard and Brooks surge up behind strong performances. Beverly and Garcia nudge ahead of Lin in preseason EPM. Asik gets on the board.
Click to expand...

Updated numbers through Preseason Game #6 (vs SAS)

JH ---- 6 games ------ 157 minutes ---- TEFF = 124 ---- EPM = 0.790 - UP
OC ---- 6 games ------ 138 minutes ---- TEFF = 093 ---- EPM = 0.674 - DN
DH ---- 6 games ------ 152 minutes ---- TEFF = 092 ---- EPM = 0.605 - UP!
JL ---- 5+games ------ 134 minutes ---- TEFF = 080 ---- EPM = 0.597 - DN
FG ---- 4 games ------ 083 minutes ---- TEFF = 049 ---- EPM = 0.590 - DN
PB ---- 6 games ------ 152 minutes ---- TEFF = 088 ----- EPM = 0.579 - DN
DM ---- 6 games ------ 103 minutes ---- TEFF = 057 ---- EPM = 0.553 - UP
CP ---- 5 games ------ 134 minutes ---- TEFF = 069 ---- EPM = 0.515 - DN
AB ---- 5 games ------ 061 minutes ---- TEFF = 027 ---- EPM = 0.443 - DN
GS ---- 3 games ------ 020 minutes ---- TEFF = 008 ---- EPM = 0.400 - UP!
TJ ---- 4 games ------ 099 minutes ---- TEFF = 037 ---- EPM = 0.374 - N/A
RB ---- 6 games ------ 076 minutes ---- TEFF = 026 ---- EPM = 0.342 - UP
OA ---- 2 games ------ 049 minutes ---- TEFF = 009 ---- EPM = 0.184 - DN
RW ---- 2 games ------ 028 minutes ---- TEFF = 003 ---- EPM = 0.107 - N/A
RC ---- 4 games ------ 031 minutes ---- TEFF = 002 ---- EPM = 0.065 - N/A

Howard surges up. Harden nudges up. Casspi slight fall. Lin very slight fall. Garcia down. Beverley down. DMo up.

Lin overtakes Beverley and Garcia. Howard surges to #3.

Shasta -- thanks for the compliment!

Ynnis888 · Oct 24, 2013

Thanks for the update!

PhiSlamma · Oct 25, 2013

Ynnis888 said: ↑

Thanks for the update!
Click to expand...

You're welcome.

Just to help ground the current numbers for Lin and Bev (through 6 preseason games), here are there efficiency numbers per 48 minutes:

JL -- 28.7
PB -- 27.8

To help understand how that looks compared with other point guards, this site can help:

http://www.hoopsstats.com/basketball/fantasy/nba/playerstats/13/2/eff/1-3

If you go to the third tab and select "per 48 minutes", you will see the comparative values. It looks like this, in order of most efficient point guard in the league in 2012-13 to least efficient point guard.

1. Chris Paul ----------- 34.1
2. Russell Westrbrook --- 31.2
3. Tony Parker --------- 29.9
(Lin preseason) -------- 28.7
4. John Wall ----------- 28.4
(Bev preseason) ------- 27.8
5. Steph Curry --------- 27.8

Now, as I have said earlier in the thread, do I think Lin and Bev can keep this level up for a whole season? No. I don't think Lin will shoot 45% from three or 100% on free throws, and I don't think Bev will shoot 55% FG, 67% threes, and 93% FT. And, it is the preseason and not the regular season.

Still, it gives you an idea of how well these two are still playing, even though their level has dropped a bit since the start of the preseason.

PhiSlamma · Oct 28, 2013

PhiSlamma said: ↑

Updated numbers through Preseason Game #6 (vs SAS)

JH ---- 6 games ------ 157 minutes ---- TEFF = 124 ---- EPM = 0.790 - UP
OC ---- 6 games ------ 138 minutes ---- TEFF = 093 ---- EPM = 0.674 - DN
DH ---- 6 games ------ 152 minutes ---- TEFF = 092 ---- EPM = 0.605 - UP!
JL ---- 5+games ------ 134 minutes ---- TEFF = 080 ---- EPM = 0.597 - DN
FG ---- 4 games ------ 083 minutes ---- TEFF = 049 ---- EPM = 0.590 - DN
PB ---- 6 games ------ 152 minutes ---- TEFF = 088 ----- EPM = 0.579 - DN
DM ---- 6 games ------ 103 minutes ---- TEFF = 057 ---- EPM = 0.553 - UP
CP ---- 5 games ------ 134 minutes ---- TEFF = 069 ---- EPM = 0.515 - DN
AB ---- 5 games ------ 061 minutes ---- TEFF = 027 ---- EPM = 0.443 - DN
GS ---- 3 games ------ 020 minutes ---- TEFF = 008 ---- EPM = 0.400 - UP!
TJ ---- 4 games ------ 099 minutes ---- TEFF = 037 ---- EPM = 0.374 - N/A
RB ---- 6 games ------ 076 minutes ---- TEFF = 026 ---- EPM = 0.342 - UP
OA ---- 2 games ------ 049 minutes ---- TEFF = 009 ---- EPM = 0.184 - DN
RW ---- 2 games ------ 028 minutes ---- TEFF = 003 ---- EPM = 0.107 - N/A
RC ---- 4 games ------ 031 minutes ---- TEFF = 002 ---- EPM = 0.065 - N/A

Howard surges up. Harden nudges up. Casspi slight fall. Lin very slight fall. Garcia down. Beverley down. DMo up.

Lin overtakes Beverley and Garcia. Howard surges to #3.
Click to expand...

Final preseason stats for 2013

JH ---- 7 games ------ 164 minutes ---- TEFF = 131 ---- EPM = 0.799 UP
OC ---- 7 games ------ 158 minutes ---- TEFF = 102 ---- EPM = 0.646 DN
DH ---- 7 games ------ 167 minutes ---- TEFF = 105 ---- EPM = 0.629 UP
JL ---- 6 games ------ 148 minutes ----- TEFF = 088 ---- EPM = 0.595 DN
PB ---- 7 games ------ 170 minutes ----- TEFF = 098 ---- EPM = 0.576 DN
DM ---- 7 games ------ 124 minutes ---- TEFF = 071 ---- EPM = 0.573 UP
FG ---- 5 games ------ 104 minutes ---- TEFF = 054 ---- EPM = 0.519 DN
CP ---- 6 games ------ 149 minutes ---- TEFF = 076 ---- EPM = 0.510 DN
GS ---- 4 games ------ 042 minutes ---- TEFF = 018 ---- EPM = 0.429 UP
AB ---- 6 games ------ 076 minutes ---- TEFF = 030 ---- EPM = 0.395 DN
TJ ---- 4 games ------ 099 minutes ---- TEFF = 037 ---- EPM = 0.374 N/A
RB ---- 7 games ------ 103 minutes ---- TEFF = 034 ---- EPM = 0.330 DN
RC ---- 5 games ------ 046 minutes ---- TEFF = 009 ---- EPM = 0.196 UP
OA ---- 3 games ------ 067 minutes ---- TEFF = 012 ---- EPM = 0.179 DN

I took out Reggie Williams since he has been cut by the team.

Forums

Understanding How Well Lin & Beverley Are Playing In 2013 Preseason

steady Member

devin23 Member

TTNN Member

Pumpedupkicks Member

gene18 Rookie

Rhodium Member

PhiSlamma Member

PhiSlamma Member

Ynnis888 Member

PhiSlamma Member

PhiSlamma Member

Share This Page

About ClutchFans

Rockets Content

Support ClutchFans!